Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence ....Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence in our predictions of tropical cyclone incidence in a future, changed climate.Read moreRead less
Climate model validation and generation of probabilistic climate projections using data from Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. New climate model results will be compared with observations to test model skill. Probabilistic projections of regional-scale climate change will be developed and used to investigate a number of ecosystem impact case studies.
Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also e ....Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also ensures the government's continued commitment to managing the risks associated with extreme events as an urgent national priority. It represents a landmark opportunity for Australian leadership of an international collaboration between some of the world's leading climate scientists and climate data and modelling centres.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140100952
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$394,299.00
Summary
A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Usin ....A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Using the ability of models to simulate the appropriate mechanistic connections, plausible future projections of heat waves will be ascertained. This will be the first comprehensive analysis of changes in heat waves, providing essential resources for the adaptation, mitigation and preparedness towards future events.Read moreRead less
Are proposed land-based sinks for greenhouse gases resilient to climate change and natural variability? One strategy to reduce the scale of future climate change is to enhance the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils. Evidence suggests carbon stored in vegetation and soils is itself vulnerable to climate change, placing this stored carbon at risk; this project will assess this risk to advise on the reliability of using terrestrial systems as carbon sinks.
Tropical climate change, the Hadley and Walker Circulations, and Australian climate. Tropical climate systems, especially the overturning circulations and monsoons, have undergone change in recent decades and are expected to do so over the next century. However, a full understanding of these has proved elusive. The project will employ a suite of insightful diagnostics of these tropical circulations calculated from the latest, high-quality data and the results of modelling to isolate the key phys ....Tropical climate change, the Hadley and Walker Circulations, and Australian climate. Tropical climate systems, especially the overturning circulations and monsoons, have undergone change in recent decades and are expected to do so over the next century. However, a full understanding of these has proved elusive. The project will employ a suite of insightful diagnostics of these tropical circulations calculated from the latest, high-quality data and the results of modelling to isolate the key physical mechanisms at work. The research is significant in that tropical circulations determine the precipitation and temperature over large parts of the Earth’s surface, and particularly Australia. The physical underpinning of the changes will assist in forming outlooks for future climate for the ‘wet tropics’ and the ‘dry zones’.Read moreRead less
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE110100079
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$500,000.00
Summary
Experimental facility for extreme air/sea interaction studies. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which cause global warming is greatly influenced by interactions at the air/sea interface. This infrastructure will allow in-depth studies of these interactions and contribute to much improved strategies to control greenhouse gases.
When the ice melts: a new perspective on the causes of Quaternary glacial terminations. The project will assemble an unprecedented palaeoclimate time series extending back to 1.2 million years ago that will allow marine and ice core records to be placed onto an absolute time scale. This will allow testing of fundamental hypotheses on why the Earth's climate shifts from glacial to interglacial states, with flow-on effects to climate models.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140100076
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$394,585.00
Summary
Mixing hot spots in the Southern Ocean: processes, parameterisations and climate impacts. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in the uptake of heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into the deep ocean. This uptake depends strongly on mixing processes due to ocean eddies, which are especially important in regions of steep topography, leading to localised mixing hot spots. These ocean eddies have scales of 10-100km and therefore can not be resolved in current global climate models. This ....Mixing hot spots in the Southern Ocean: processes, parameterisations and climate impacts. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in the uptake of heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into the deep ocean. This uptake depends strongly on mixing processes due to ocean eddies, which are especially important in regions of steep topography, leading to localised mixing hot spots. These ocean eddies have scales of 10-100km and therefore can not be resolved in current global climate models. This project will examine these mixing processes using a combination of observations and innovative modelling approaches. This knowledge will be used to improve the representation of eddy processes in state-of-the-art climate models, which will ultimately allow Australia to more effectively respond to the challenge of climate change.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL100100214
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,918,382.00
Summary
Future risks associated with ocean surface warming: impacts on climate, rainfall, carbon, and circulation. Climate change is already affecting Australia, with harsh drought, more intense bushfire seasons, increased monsoon rains, heatwaves, and warmer temperatures all a feature of the past few decades. Climate change is expected to accelerate in the future, warming the oceans at an increased rate. This will affect ocean circulation, carbon uptake and ocean-atmosphere modes, such as El Nino, with ....Future risks associated with ocean surface warming: impacts on climate, rainfall, carbon, and circulation. Climate change is already affecting Australia, with harsh drought, more intense bushfire seasons, increased monsoon rains, heatwaves, and warmer temperatures all a feature of the past few decades. Climate change is expected to accelerate in the future, warming the oceans at an increased rate. This will affect ocean circulation, carbon uptake and ocean-atmosphere modes, such as El Nino, with unknown intensity. This project will improve our preparedness for climate change by better quantifying the risks that ocean warming will transform Australia's climate, rainfall, and sea level; as well as the ocean's uptake of carbon and the global ocean circulation. This will benefit sectors including agriculture, water management, fisheries, and tourism.Read moreRead less