How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to A ....How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to Australian heatwave impacts on human health, key knowledge should support more targeted and accurate mitigation policies, minimising the strain on resources when future heatwaves occur. This should help in safeguarding future generations from deadly impacts of heatwaves.Read moreRead less
Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitatio ....Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitations. Any model failings identified will feed into model development strategies and support enhanced decision-making informed by regional climate model simulations.Read moreRead less
An integrated mechanistic model of species' responses to environmental change: from individual responses to range shifts and beyond. To effectively adapt to future environmental change, reliable forecasts are needed of how human alterations to climate and habitat will affect species. This project integrates cutting-edge methods in nutritional, physiological and spatial ecology to develop new tools for predicting and understanding how species will respond to environmental change.
How will climate change affect sub-daily precipitation? This project will examine changes in sub-daily precipitation due to climate change. It will improve our understanding of the mechanisms that cause the changes at regional and local scales. Regional climate change projections produced will be freely available, and at a spatial and temporal scales suitable for impacts and adaptation studies.
Integrating biomechanics and ecology: moving from an individual- to population-level understanding of the effects of environmental change. Coral reefs, a key Australian resource, face an uncertain future due to environmental change. Up to now, environmental change research has focused on the individual level, severely limiting our predictive capacity. This project will develop a novel 'first principle' approach to solve this shortcoming and make population-level predictions possible.
Unravelling Western Australia's Stormy Past - A Precisely-Dated Sediment Record of Cyclones over the past 7000 years. Australia has a vast coastline, much of which is vulnerable to cyclone impact. Clearly, historical human experience does not comprehend what the climate system is capable of in terms of epic storms. Our effort to understand the storm risks of the past is complicated by the limited length of the instrumental record which reaches back only 150 years of European settlement in tropic ....Unravelling Western Australia's Stormy Past - A Precisely-Dated Sediment Record of Cyclones over the past 7000 years. Australia has a vast coastline, much of which is vulnerable to cyclone impact. Clearly, historical human experience does not comprehend what the climate system is capable of in terms of epic storms. Our effort to understand the storm risks of the past is complicated by the limited length of the instrumental record which reaches back only 150 years of European settlement in tropical areas of Australia. This project will reconstruct the history of storms and cyclones using sedimentary signatures in Western Australia over the past 7000 years to assess storm and cyclone risks under changing future climates in a regional context.Read moreRead less
Tropical ocean interactions and implications for regional climate. This project aims to understand the complex interactions across the world’s tropical oceans and their associated climate effects. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), manifesting in the Pacific Ocean, influences precipitation and temperature worldwide. Changes in the tropical Atlantic or Indian Oceans affect ENSO, generating instabilities and irregularities in the response. Understanding the interactions across the tropical ....Tropical ocean interactions and implications for regional climate. This project aims to understand the complex interactions across the world’s tropical oceans and their associated climate effects. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), manifesting in the Pacific Ocean, influences precipitation and temperature worldwide. Changes in the tropical Atlantic or Indian Oceans affect ENSO, generating instabilities and irregularities in the response. Understanding the interactions across the tropical Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans can provide critical information for ENSO prognosis, thus improving long-term forecasting. Accurate seasonal and annual climate forecasting is crucial for managing Australia’s water resources, and minimising the socio-economic effects of prolonged droughts and severe wet periods.Read moreRead less
Marine heatwaves: subsurface structure and interactions with other extremes. Marine heatwaves routinely cause major ecosystem degradation affecting valuable industries. The aim of this project is to extend our understanding to the workings of temperature extremes hidden below the ocean surface and how other concurrent ocean and terrestrial extremes interact with these marine heatwaves. The project will generate significant new knowledge around the mechanisms driving subsurface heatwaves and how ....Marine heatwaves: subsurface structure and interactions with other extremes. Marine heatwaves routinely cause major ecosystem degradation affecting valuable industries. The aim of this project is to extend our understanding to the workings of temperature extremes hidden below the ocean surface and how other concurrent ocean and terrestrial extremes interact with these marine heatwaves. The project will generate significant new knowledge around the mechanisms driving subsurface heatwaves and how they interact with ocean acidification, oxygen and terrestrial extremes. The outcomes would include improved forecasting of ocean extremes and a quantification of the multivariate risks posed to marine species. This will help guide mitigation or adaptation strategies, benefitting exposed industries like fisheries and tourism.Read moreRead less
Past and future effects of climate change on the carbon-water balance of plants. Over the coming century, climate change will profoundly impact Australian vegetation via the direct effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on plants and the indirect effects of CO2-forced changes in rainfall and temperature, with major implications for agricultural production and water resources. This project will address these threats by providing new tools for measuring and predicting vegetation-clim ....Past and future effects of climate change on the carbon-water balance of plants. Over the coming century, climate change will profoundly impact Australian vegetation via the direct effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on plants and the indirect effects of CO2-forced changes in rainfall and temperature, with major implications for agricultural production and water resources. This project will address these threats by providing new tools for measuring and predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks. It will determine the combined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and drought on the productivity of natural and agricultural landscapes, and provide the biophysical framework for developing the next generation of high-yielding, drought tolerant crop varieties for the rapidly approaching greenhouse world.Read moreRead less
Drought effects on soil carbon and nitrogen cycling mediated by rhizosphere processes. There is much uncertainty about how drought caused by global warming will affect agricultural sustainability in Australia. This project will provide new knowledge about plant-soil interactions affecting carbon and nutrient cycling and will make predictions about long-term soil carbon storage and agricultural productivity in response to drought.