Climate model validation and generation of probabilistic climate projections using data from Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. New climate model results will be compared with observations to test model skill. Probabilistic projections of regional-scale climate change will be developed and used to investigate a number of ecosystem impact case studies.
Keystone microbes and planktonic guilds in Australia's oceans. This project aims to unveil the ocean’s hidden sentinels, “keystone microbes” that underpin precious ecosystem services, and which can be used to monitor and model changes in ocean function. Marine microbes account for 90 per cent of oceanic biomass and every litre of seawater contains ~20,000 different species, but it is not known which species control ocean health and productivity. This project intends to provide definitive evidenc ....Keystone microbes and planktonic guilds in Australia's oceans. This project aims to unveil the ocean’s hidden sentinels, “keystone microbes” that underpin precious ecosystem services, and which can be used to monitor and model changes in ocean function. Marine microbes account for 90 per cent of oceanic biomass and every litre of seawater contains ~20,000 different species, but it is not known which species control ocean health and productivity. This project intends to provide definitive evidence of these keystones’ cellular level biogeochemical and metabolic capacity. Ultimately, this knowledge is expected to predict the resilience of ocean ecosystems and their response to change. The capacity to predict their dynamics will help provide investment clarity and increase healthy outcomes from activities involving human-ocean interactions such as recreation, food production and tourism.Read moreRead less
Climate change and migration in China: theoretical, empirical and policy dimensions. This project will analyse the complex relationship between climate change and migration by focussing in depth on two areas in China anticipated being major hotspots of Climate change impact. It will provide insight into national and international policy development in Climate change mitigation and adaptations.
Comparative Paleogenomics of the Arctic Tundra Ecosystem: the genetic response of plants and animals to climate change. This project will use DNA from deep-frozen seeds and bones 100,000 years old to record how species respond to climate change - by adapting and surviving or by shifting ranges and moving. Very large numbers of genes will be examined to identify changes across the genomes of four plant and two animal species, and contrast the responses to major climatic shifts.
How climate-resilient are our temperate fisheries species? This project assesses the resilience of our temperate fisheries species to climate change. Using natural warming hotspots and volcanic CO2 vents we study populations of fisheries species that are already pre-adapted to future climate, and therefore could act as key populations for replenishment of future fisheries stocks. An innovative and interdisciplinary approach combines the ecology, genetics, behaviour, and physiology of fisheries s ....How climate-resilient are our temperate fisheries species? This project assesses the resilience of our temperate fisheries species to climate change. Using natural warming hotspots and volcanic CO2 vents we study populations of fisheries species that are already pre-adapted to future climate, and therefore could act as key populations for replenishment of future fisheries stocks. An innovative and interdisciplinary approach combines the ecology, genetics, behaviour, and physiology of fisheries species to evaluate their climate resilience. An advanced food web model will be developed to forecast changes to fisheries production in a future world. This provides a much-improved forecast of climate adaptation and managing future biodiversity and fisheries species through resilient genes and populations.Read moreRead less
Using phylogenomics to record the impacts of climate change, extinction and population fragmentation. This project will use ancient DNA from permafrost-preserved Steppe bison bones and bovid exome capture systems to build a detailed record of the genomic impacts of rapid climate and environmental change at the end of the Pleistocene (30 to 11 kyr). The project will analyse how ancestral genetic diversity is distributed amongst surviving bison populations, and the role of nuclear loci under selec ....Using phylogenomics to record the impacts of climate change, extinction and population fragmentation. This project will use ancient DNA from permafrost-preserved Steppe bison bones and bovid exome capture systems to build a detailed record of the genomic impacts of rapid climate and environmental change at the end of the Pleistocene (30 to 11 kyr). The project will analyse how ancestral genetic diversity is distributed amongst surviving bison populations, and the role of nuclear loci under selection and drift. It will create a novel temporal dataset of genomic adaptation and evolution, and will generate critical data for studies of evolutionary processes such as extinctions, speciation and conservation biology and management.Read moreRead less
The aeronomy of the atmosphere between 50 and 110 km. Signals of climate change in the 50 to 110 km height region of the atmosphere are becoming more evident. This region shields the surface from extreme UV radiation and so understanding any changes in the region is important for life. We will improve our understanding of the region and look for additional evidence of changes. We will also contribute to improvements in numerical weather prediction models.
Mapping climate change vulnerability of older Australians to extreme heat. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with negative health outcomes and has been recognized as a global health challenge in the context of climate change, especially among older people. While the direct heat-related mortality for older people reached a record high of 345,000 deaths worldwide in 2019, which was 80.6% higher than the 2000–05 average, there has been no detailed study in Australia. This project is to have a ....Mapping climate change vulnerability of older Australians to extreme heat. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with negative health outcomes and has been recognized as a global health challenge in the context of climate change, especially among older people. While the direct heat-related mortality for older people reached a record high of 345,000 deaths worldwide in 2019, which was 80.6% higher than the 2000–05 average, there has been no detailed study in Australia. This project is to have a national picture of the impact of extreme heat on the health outcomes of older people and associated healthcare costs at Statistical Area level 3 (SA3), to inform the design and implementation of tailored interventions to minimize the health risk and costs from extreme heat to protect the health of this vulnerable group. Read moreRead less
The Response of the Middle Atmosphere to Solar and Dynamical Forcing. The region of the atmosphere and ionosphere between 50 and 100 km is difficult to measure directly. We will use a unique array of instruments deployed across Australia to study how this region responds to waves generated in the lower atmosphere and to changes in electromagnetic energy from the sun and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere. Outcomes will help our understanding of how the region is responding to rising l ....The Response of the Middle Atmosphere to Solar and Dynamical Forcing. The region of the atmosphere and ionosphere between 50 and 100 km is difficult to measure directly. We will use a unique array of instruments deployed across Australia to study how this region responds to waves generated in the lower atmosphere and to changes in electromagnetic energy from the sun and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere. Outcomes will help our understanding of how the region is responding to rising levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. Cooling effects are already apparent and our research will look for additional evidence of change.Read moreRead less
A new strategy for design flood estimation in a nonstationary climate. Evidence suggests that global warming will result in an increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of heavy rainfall, leading to flooding with potentially devastating consequences. This study provides a renewed focus on design flood estimation that takes into account a changing climate where assumptions of stationarity are no longer tenable.