Local climate changes caused by large bushfire burnt areas. This project aims to quantify the impact on local climate produced by large burnt areas after extreme bushfires. This project expects to generate new knowledge on these previously unexplored fire-scar induced changes to local climate. It will extend an innovative approach that combines satellite based earth observation with very high resolution regional climate modelling to quantify the impacts on land-atmosphere feedbacks and local cli ....Local climate changes caused by large bushfire burnt areas. This project aims to quantify the impact on local climate produced by large burnt areas after extreme bushfires. This project expects to generate new knowledge on these previously unexplored fire-scar induced changes to local climate. It will extend an innovative approach that combines satellite based earth observation with very high resolution regional climate modelling to quantify the impacts on land-atmosphere feedbacks and local climate. Expected outcomes of this project include enhanced methods to quantify local climate changes after extreme fires and their effect on vegetation recovery. This should provide significant benefits to the planning for, and management of, vegetation recovery after extreme fires.Read moreRead less
Testing a new explanation of cloud feedback on global climate. A new analysis suggests that the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases is largely controlled by the upward transport of water vapour in the lower troposphere, but the analysis did not examine clouds, which must be involved for the mechanism to be valid. The aim of the proposed project is to determine whether variations in cloud implied by this new explanation are supported by observations and process models. If the explan ....Testing a new explanation of cloud feedback on global climate. A new analysis suggests that the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases is largely controlled by the upward transport of water vapour in the lower troposphere, but the analysis did not examine clouds, which must be involved for the mechanism to be valid. The aim of the proposed project is to determine whether variations in cloud implied by this new explanation are supported by observations and process models. If the explanation is confirmed, then for the first time in over 30 years of intense research it will be possible to determine the long-term severity of global warming by examining the present-day atmosphere. The expected outcome of this research is to clarify how and why low clouds change in altered climates.Read moreRead less
Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interac ....Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interactions, whilst models do not represent the functional characteristics and adaptions of eucalypts. This project will develop a strong evidence- and process-based understanding to quantify the functional behaviour of drought-adapted Eucalyptus species and leverage this insight to make future model projections.Read moreRead less
Are proposed land-based sinks for greenhouse gases resilient to climate change and natural variability? One strategy to reduce the scale of future climate change is to enhance the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils. Evidence suggests carbon stored in vegetation and soils is itself vulnerable to climate change, placing this stored carbon at risk; this project will assess this risk to advise on the reliability of using terrestrial systems as carbon sinks.
The changing relationship between the South Asian and Australian Monsoon in a warming world. The success or failure of the Australian and South Asian Monsoons can mean the difference between prosperity and severe hardship in the affected regions. This project will help to understand the causes of the monsoon variability, both natural and human-induced, and what the future might have in store.
A regional coupled climate model for Australia. This project aims to implement a regional, coupled atmosphere and ocean model, to determine under what circumstance ocean-atmosphere interactions are critical. Regional high-resolution atmosphere models are routinely used to provide projections of climate at the local scales needed by decision makers. However, these tools neglect the fine-scale interactions between ocean and atmosphere that can significantly modify conditions around coastal or isla ....A regional coupled climate model for Australia. This project aims to implement a regional, coupled atmosphere and ocean model, to determine under what circumstance ocean-atmosphere interactions are critical. Regional high-resolution atmosphere models are routinely used to provide projections of climate at the local scales needed by decision makers. However, these tools neglect the fine-scale interactions between ocean and atmosphere that can significantly modify conditions around coastal or island regions. This project intends to deliver the first high-resolution projections of both ocean and atmosphere off eastern Australia to understand how small-scale ocean and atmosphere processes and their interactions affect changes in extreme rainfall, marine heat waves and ocean circulation.Read moreRead less
Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water c ....Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water cycles and reconstruct past climates. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for use by paleoclimatologists, plant scientists and to constrain global carbon cycles and develop accurate models of leaf water isotopes to reduce uncertainty in climate models.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation m ....Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation method and order of operation on an unprecedented grand scale. Ultimately, this means that improved return period estimates could be calculated for the types of events that could lead to flooding. Understanding how, where and why it rains is vital for enabling sound decisions to be made by our planners and policy-makers.Read moreRead less
Quantitative reconstructions of Australian climates since the last Interglacial. A crucial test of the models used to project future climate is how well they reproduce past climates. The project will reconstruct Australian regional climates, from vegetation, fire and runoff records, and use these for climate-model evaluation - helping to provide a more solid basis for management of Australian resources in the future.