Coupling tropical cyclone and climate physics with ocean waves. It is argued that without accounting for the wave effects directly, the physics of large-scale air-sea interactions is inaccurate and incomplete. The project will introduce explicit coupling of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena with the physics of surface waves which should lead to improved predictions of tropical cyclones and climate.
Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence ....Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence in our predictions of tropical cyclone incidence in a future, changed climate.Read moreRead less
The weather-climate connection in Australian climate change. This project aims to uncover the key links in Australia's weather-climate connection by identifying the role weather features play in influencing the slowly varying climate and how changes in one might affect changes in the other. Better describing the two-way connection between weather and climate through an innovative combination of research techniques usually applied to only one of weather or climate will allow for a more insightful ....The weather-climate connection in Australian climate change. This project aims to uncover the key links in Australia's weather-climate connection by identifying the role weather features play in influencing the slowly varying climate and how changes in one might affect changes in the other. Better describing the two-way connection between weather and climate through an innovative combination of research techniques usually applied to only one of weather or climate will allow for a more insightful assessment of climate model quality. This assessment will support the identification of the most reliable climate models and, by using them, reduce uncertainties in future predictions. Improved predictions of climate in turn will enable better decision making in all sectors of society.Read moreRead less
A theory for the vertical structure of tropical atmospheric circulations. The vertical structure of atmospheric circulations is a key determinant of rainfall patterns and climate, but model projections do not agree on how it will change in a warmer world. This project aims to discover the processes that control the vertical structure of tropical atmospheric circulations. It will combine theory development, analysis of observations, and targeted modelling to generate new knowledge of the mechanis ....A theory for the vertical structure of tropical atmospheric circulations. The vertical structure of atmospheric circulations is a key determinant of rainfall patterns and climate, but model projections do not agree on how it will change in a warmer world. This project aims to discover the processes that control the vertical structure of tropical atmospheric circulations. It will combine theory development, analysis of observations, and targeted modelling to generate new knowledge of the mechanisms affecting atmospheric circulations as the climate changes. This will allow for process-based identification of the most reliable climate models, facilitating increased confidence in future projections. More accurate tropical climate projections will benefit decision making for resource management in northern Australia.Read moreRead less
Cloudiness over the Southern Ocean: reducing a key knowledge gap and source of climate model uncertainty. Southern Ocean clouds are key ingredients of the global climate system and yet are only poorly understood and poorly represented in climate models. Through the use of advanced observational analysis techniques this research will provide a deep understanding of key Southern Ocean cloud regimes and improve their representation in models.
When the ice melts: a new perspective on the causes of Quaternary glacial terminations. The project will assemble an unprecedented palaeoclimate time series extending back to 1.2 million years ago that will allow marine and ice core records to be placed onto an absolute time scale. This will allow testing of fundamental hypotheses on why the Earth's climate shifts from glacial to interglacial states, with flow-on effects to climate models.
Tropical climate change, the Hadley and Walker Circulations, and Australian climate. Tropical climate systems, especially the overturning circulations and monsoons, have undergone change in recent decades and are expected to do so over the next century. However, a full understanding of these has proved elusive. The project will employ a suite of insightful diagnostics of these tropical circulations calculated from the latest, high-quality data and the results of modelling to isolate the key phys ....Tropical climate change, the Hadley and Walker Circulations, and Australian climate. Tropical climate systems, especially the overturning circulations and monsoons, have undergone change in recent decades and are expected to do so over the next century. However, a full understanding of these has proved elusive. The project will employ a suite of insightful diagnostics of these tropical circulations calculated from the latest, high-quality data and the results of modelling to isolate the key physical mechanisms at work. The research is significant in that tropical circulations determine the precipitation and temperature over large parts of the Earth’s surface, and particularly Australia. The physical underpinning of the changes will assist in forming outlooks for future climate for the ‘wet tropics’ and the ‘dry zones’.Read moreRead less
Trends in polar sea ice and associated global atmospheric circulations. The project aims to analyse the trends in sea ice extent over the polar regions, and explain them in terms of changes in the local and remote atmospheric circulation. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, while increasing in the Antarctic. The resolution of this paradox is a pressing issue in climate science, as is the broad question of how sea ice influences, and is influenced by, climate conditions ....Trends in polar sea ice and associated global atmospheric circulations. The project aims to analyse the trends in sea ice extent over the polar regions, and explain them in terms of changes in the local and remote atmospheric circulation. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, while increasing in the Antarctic. The resolution of this paradox is a pressing issue in climate science, as is the broad question of how sea ice influences, and is influenced by, climate conditions in the mid-latitudes and tropics. Anticipated outcomes include a better understanding of the nature of links between Australian climate and Antarctic ice, and between United States climate extremes and Arctic ice.Read moreRead less
Satellite measurements of ocean wave breaking. This project aims to develop a methodology for global satellite measurements of ocean wave breaking and determine global trends. Measurements of ocean wave breaking are elusive and not available at global scale, but are important for understanding ocean wave dynamics, air-sea interaction, aerosol production, gas transfer, ocean mixing, climate, and other coupled dynamics in the air-sea system, and designing and operating coastal and offshore facilit ....Satellite measurements of ocean wave breaking. This project aims to develop a methodology for global satellite measurements of ocean wave breaking and determine global trends. Measurements of ocean wave breaking are elusive and not available at global scale, but are important for understanding ocean wave dynamics, air-sea interaction, aerosol production, gas transfer, ocean mixing, climate, and other coupled dynamics in the air-sea system, and designing and operating coastal and offshore facilities. This project will produce major updates of wave and General Circulation Models which will be important for our understanding of wave, ocean and climate dynamics, the design and operation of coastal and offshore facilities and the determination of global trends. The new satellite sensing is expected to be used extensively in metocean and engineering applications, and for major updates of wave and general circulation models.Read moreRead less
Links between bushfires in Victoria and floods in Queensland. This project will investigate connections between bushfires in Victoria and floods in Queensland under the framework that atmospheric blocking can be thought of as a common link. High resolution runs using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future projections of the energetics of high impact weather will improve climate forecasts in sensitive coastal areas of the country.