An integrated mechanistic model of species' responses to environmental change: from individual responses to range shifts and beyond. To effectively adapt to future environmental change, reliable forecasts are needed of how human alterations to climate and habitat will affect species. This project integrates cutting-edge methods in nutritional, physiological and spatial ecology to develop new tools for predicting and understanding how species will respond to environmental change.
Mapping climate change vulnerability of older Australians to extreme heat. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with negative health outcomes and has been recognized as a global health challenge in the context of climate change, especially among older people. While the direct heat-related mortality for older people reached a record high of 345,000 deaths worldwide in 2019, which was 80.6% higher than the 2000–05 average, there has been no detailed study in Australia. This project is to have a ....Mapping climate change vulnerability of older Australians to extreme heat. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with negative health outcomes and has been recognized as a global health challenge in the context of climate change, especially among older people. While the direct heat-related mortality for older people reached a record high of 345,000 deaths worldwide in 2019, which was 80.6% higher than the 2000–05 average, there has been no detailed study in Australia. This project is to have a national picture of the impact of extreme heat on the health outcomes of older people and associated healthcare costs at Statistical Area level 3 (SA3), to inform the design and implementation of tailored interventions to minimize the health risk and costs from extreme heat to protect the health of this vulnerable group. Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230100067
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$460,233.00
Summary
Predicting the future threat of mosquitoes under climate change. This project aims to predict the future distributions of local and invasive mosquito species under climate change by testing their ability to adapt to hot, cold and dry environments. The project expects to generate new knowledge by identifying traits that underpin climate change adaptation in mosquitoes. Expected outcomes of this project include an enhanced understanding of future mosquito distributions through new predictive model ....Predicting the future threat of mosquitoes under climate change. This project aims to predict the future distributions of local and invasive mosquito species under climate change by testing their ability to adapt to hot, cold and dry environments. The project expects to generate new knowledge by identifying traits that underpin climate change adaptation in mosquitoes. Expected outcomes of this project include an enhanced understanding of future mosquito distributions through new predictive models that incorporate adaptive changes. This should provide significant social and economic benefits, with outcomes intended to improve the management of local pest mosquitoes and prepare Australia to tackle invasive mosquito threats.Read moreRead less
Predicting adaptive responses to climate change in Australian native bees. This project aims to understand how insects will adapt to climate change by examining a largely overlooked but economically important group of species: Australian native bees. Native bees are important pollinators of both crops and native plants, but their sensitivity to changes in climate are unknown. Expected outcomes include new knowledge of the resilience of native bees to climate change, and new effective tools for p ....Predicting adaptive responses to climate change in Australian native bees. This project aims to understand how insects will adapt to climate change by examining a largely overlooked but economically important group of species: Australian native bees. Native bees are important pollinators of both crops and native plants, but their sensitivity to changes in climate are unknown. Expected outcomes include new knowledge of the resilience of native bees to climate change, and new effective tools for predicting climate change resilience that can be applied to many species. The intended benefits include increasing our understanding of the potential for native bees to act as future pollinators in Australia’s natural and agro-ecosystems, and guide policy and management decisions to better protect and conserve our bee fauna.Read moreRead less
Interacting with change: inter-specific competition and climate change . The project aims to understand how species will adapt to climate change by examining a largely overlooked process: how competition shapes evolutionary responses. Rising temperatures will fundamentally alter where species live, re-shuffling communities. Yet, how changes in community composition will affect the way current assessments of species vulnerability to climate change is generally unknown. Expected outcomes include i ....Interacting with change: inter-specific competition and climate change . The project aims to understand how species will adapt to climate change by examining a largely overlooked process: how competition shapes evolutionary responses. Rising temperatures will fundamentally alter where species live, re-shuffling communities. Yet, how changes in community composition will affect the way current assessments of species vulnerability to climate change is generally unknown. Expected outcomes include improved species models for predicting responses to climate change through the integration of competitive effects with environmental data. The benefit will be an increased accuracy in predictions of species at risk to climate change which will guide policy and management decisions to protect vulnerable environments better.Read moreRead less
Can endosymbionts alter climate change resilience in insects? This project aims to establish whether endosymbionts alter climate change vulnerability and investigate the potential for endosymbionts to be used as a tool to modify climate change resilience in insects. Heritable endosymbionts – microscopic bacteria living exclusively within host cells – are widespread in insects. A handful of studies indicate that endosymbionts may influence the thermal tolerance of their host, yet whether they al ....Can endosymbionts alter climate change resilience in insects? This project aims to establish whether endosymbionts alter climate change vulnerability and investigate the potential for endosymbionts to be used as a tool to modify climate change resilience in insects. Heritable endosymbionts – microscopic bacteria living exclusively within host cells – are widespread in insects. A handful of studies indicate that endosymbionts may influence the thermal tolerance of their host, yet whether they alter the upper thermal limits and climate change risk of insects is unknown. This fellowship will provide a greater understanding of the consequences of climate change on species persistence, as well as opening up avenues to utilise endosymbionts as a tool to manipulate the climate change resilience of insects.
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Fitness and evolutionary consequences of developmental plasticity. This project aims to develop a framework for accurately predicting species responses to global change. Phenotypic plasticity will act as a rapid-response mechanism, enabling organisms to survive climatic shifts in the first instance. Understanding how and when plasticity underpins species’ persistence under climate change is lacking. This project aims to integrate developmental responses to environmental change with evolutionary ....Fitness and evolutionary consequences of developmental plasticity. This project aims to develop a framework for accurately predicting species responses to global change. Phenotypic plasticity will act as a rapid-response mechanism, enabling organisms to survive climatic shifts in the first instance. Understanding how and when plasticity underpins species’ persistence under climate change is lacking. This project aims to integrate developmental responses to environmental change with evolutionary adaptation and population persistence in a spatially explicit context. The intended outcome is a powerful and general tool for predicting the impact of environmental change on the distribution and abundance of organisms. Benefits include improved conservation outcomes and better control of pest/disease vectors.Read moreRead less
Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Fires, black carbon, greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon balance of southern sclerophyll forests. Ecologically sustainable forest management requires an understanding of the role of fire in the carbon balance of native forests, and in Australia's overall carbon balance. Fires are crucial to both this carbon balance and to the ecology of the forests. This project will help forest managers make decisions about using prescribed fire to manage fuels while at the same time managing carbon. An ....Fires, black carbon, greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon balance of southern sclerophyll forests. Ecologically sustainable forest management requires an understanding of the role of fire in the carbon balance of native forests, and in Australia's overall carbon balance. Fires are crucial to both this carbon balance and to the ecology of the forests. This project will help forest managers make decisions about using prescribed fire to manage fuels while at the same time managing carbon. An aim of management is to identify fire regimes that will optimise the carbon outcome as well as provide protection to life and property. This project will help managers meet that aim by developing a quantitative understanding of how much stable, black carbon (charcoal) is produced and how it affects other soil processes.Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less