Cellular automata model of forest stands to predict size-class distribution and survival. Existing forest growth models predict well stand level processes such as growth. However, they provide little information on forest structure and how this affects commercial forest products, risks of growing plantations and stand dynamics that determine carbon sequestration and water-use and result in age-related decline in productivity and self-thinning. By using newly developed technology to quantify in ....Cellular automata model of forest stands to predict size-class distribution and survival. Existing forest growth models predict well stand level processes such as growth. However, they provide little information on forest structure and how this affects commercial forest products, risks of growing plantations and stand dynamics that determine carbon sequestration and water-use and result in age-related decline in productivity and self-thinning. By using newly developed technology to quantify inter-tree competition, tree level resource supply, between tree genetic differences and the importance of chance events this project will draw on complexity theory to develop an innovative model that partitions stand level production to forecast the growth and size of individual trees.Read moreRead less
Eddy-resolving global ocean-sea ice modelling. Eddy-resolving global ocean-sea ice modelling. This project aims to develop a world-class global ocean-sea ice model framework through a nationwide consortium. The resulting high resolution models are expected to provide the foundation for the next decade of Australian ocean-sea ice modelling capacity. This research should lead to improved ocean and sea ice prediction, ocean reanalyses, and climate projections, enhancing Australia's capacity to pred ....Eddy-resolving global ocean-sea ice modelling. Eddy-resolving global ocean-sea ice modelling. This project aims to develop a world-class global ocean-sea ice model framework through a nationwide consortium. The resulting high resolution models are expected to provide the foundation for the next decade of Australian ocean-sea ice modelling capacity. This research should lead to improved ocean and sea ice prediction, ocean reanalyses, and climate projections, enhancing Australia's capacity to predict the ocean state on timescales of days to decades. This is expected to yield efficiencies in shipping, marine search and rescue and naval operations, and increase the accuracy of projected future changes in climate, sea level, ocean ecosystems and the cryosphere.Read moreRead less
An integrated tool for informing pest management: modelling range shifts for an invasive vertebrate in response to climate change. Invasive species and climate contribute directly to loss of biodiversity and economic productivity. This research project focuses on providing user-orientated tools that enable a strategic approach to European rabbit management and vertebrate pest control in Australia in response to anticipated climate and land-use change.
Resolving human-flying fox conflict in the face of environmental change. Resolving human-flying fox conflict in the face of environmental change. This project aims to identify socially-acceptable priority areas to be managed for the long-term viability of flying-foxes under a changing climate, and develop strategies to mitigate human-flying fox conflict, using ecological and social analysis in a decision-theoretic framework. Flying-foxes are nationally protected mammals pivotal to Australia’s fo ....Resolving human-flying fox conflict in the face of environmental change. Resolving human-flying fox conflict in the face of environmental change. This project aims to identify socially-acceptable priority areas to be managed for the long-term viability of flying-foxes under a changing climate, and develop strategies to mitigate human-flying fox conflict, using ecological and social analysis in a decision-theoretic framework. Flying-foxes are nationally protected mammals pivotal to Australia’s forest ecosystems, but are threatened by habitat loss, extreme weather and legal culls at orchards. Their exceptional mobility puts them in frequent conflict with human settlements, leading to forced dispersals from roosts. Anticipated outcomes are the conservation of Australia’s flying-foxes and international understanding of how to resolve human conflict with highly mobile species that are threatened but locally abundant and controversial.Read moreRead less
Resolving the warming East Australian Current's impact on a marine food web. Resolving the warming East Australian Current's impact on a marine food web. This project aims to understand the effects of climate change on marine food webs, from plankton production to predation by iconic marine fauna, by integrating data on oceanographic conditions and fish distribution with the foraging patterns and breeding success of seabirds. Warming waters due to strengthening western boundary currents have unk ....Resolving the warming East Australian Current's impact on a marine food web. Resolving the warming East Australian Current's impact on a marine food web. This project aims to understand the effects of climate change on marine food webs, from plankton production to predation by iconic marine fauna, by integrating data on oceanographic conditions and fish distribution with the foraging patterns and breeding success of seabirds. Warming waters due to strengthening western boundary currents have unknown consequences for coastal marine food webs. Innovative prey capture signatures from accelerometers, and advanced movement models from satellite locations will show how predators locate and prey upon fish schools. Anticipated outcomes are insight into how changing resource availability in the oceans affects ecosystem resilience; improved viability for coastal industries; and ecosystem-based conservation management strategies.Read moreRead less
Precipitation in wintertime storms across southeast Australia, Tasmania and the Southern Ocean. The pristine conditions and strong wind-shear over the Southern Ocean affect the formation of precipitation in clouds over the region, which is vital to the water supply of southeastern Australia and Tasmania. This project will evaluate and improve the ability to simulate this precipitation, which will lead to better water resource management.
Improving prediction of rocky reef ecosystem responses to human impacts. This project aims to improve our understanding of inshore ecosystems to facilitate better management of our living marine heritage. The project first aims to extend field datasets on the density and distribution of thousands of marine fishes, invertebrates and macro-algae. These will then be combined using recent advances in quantitative ecological modelling to describe transfer of biomass between species at hundreds of sit ....Improving prediction of rocky reef ecosystem responses to human impacts. This project aims to improve our understanding of inshore ecosystems to facilitate better management of our living marine heritage. The project first aims to extend field datasets on the density and distribution of thousands of marine fishes, invertebrates and macro-algae. These will then be combined using recent advances in quantitative ecological modelling to describe transfer of biomass between species at hundreds of sites, with a primary focus on southern Australia. It is anticipated that this will provide site-level indices of major food web processes that, when combined with ‘before, after, control, impact’ data, will improve prediction of ecological consequences of fishing, climate change, pest outbreaks and pollution.Read moreRead less
Developing best-practice approaches for restoring forest ecosystems that are resilient to climate change. Existing restoration practices for forests tend to rely on ad hoc rules of thumb that lack a firm scientific basis and risk failure due to climate change. The project will model biodiversity, genetic and growth performance data to develop best-practice restoration guidelines for forest ecosystems to enable them to become resilient to climate change and maximise biodiversity and carbon captur ....Developing best-practice approaches for restoring forest ecosystems that are resilient to climate change. Existing restoration practices for forests tend to rely on ad hoc rules of thumb that lack a firm scientific basis and risk failure due to climate change. The project will model biodiversity, genetic and growth performance data to develop best-practice restoration guidelines for forest ecosystems to enable them to become resilient to climate change and maximise biodiversity and carbon capture outcomes.Read moreRead less
Improved Geodetic Modelling through Very Long Baseline Interferometry. We plan to develop a geodetic VLBI capability to provide independent confirmation of results from alternative techniques such as GPS and SLR and allow us to characterise and remove the systematic errors inherent in these systems, to produce an optimum, unified terrestrial reference system based on VLBI measurements, together with GPS/SLR data, especially for the Antarctic region. The ITRF is based on the VLBI ICRF linking ou ....Improved Geodetic Modelling through Very Long Baseline Interferometry. We plan to develop a geodetic VLBI capability to provide independent confirmation of results from alternative techniques such as GPS and SLR and allow us to characterise and remove the systematic errors inherent in these systems, to produce an optimum, unified terrestrial reference system based on VLBI measurements, together with GPS/SLR data, especially for the Antarctic region. The ITRF is based on the VLBI ICRF linking our astrometric and geodynamic research programs.
We will estimate motion at sites from the combination of VLBI, GPS, gravity and tide gauge data for geodynamic effects, such as post-glacial rebound and tectonic motion, global mean sea level change and determine length-of-day (LOD) variations, focused primarily on understanding the contribution from the Southern Oceans.
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Protecting Australia's pine plantations from exotic pests and climate change. This project will protect pine plantations (representing 57% of Australia's $3.3 billion pa forestry industry) from the dual threat of exotic pests and climate change. Sirex wood wasp has been well controlled until the recent, unprecedented, increase of ips bark beetles. The ips beetle is now disrupting biological control of sirex by its feeding activity so work is required to understand and combat this effect. The wor ....Protecting Australia's pine plantations from exotic pests and climate change. This project will protect pine plantations (representing 57% of Australia's $3.3 billion pa forestry industry) from the dual threat of exotic pests and climate change. Sirex wood wasp has been well controlled until the recent, unprecedented, increase of ips bark beetles. The ips beetle is now disrupting biological control of sirex by its feeding activity so work is required to understand and combat this effect. The work is made more urgent by looming climate change because storm-damage, drought and heat stressed trees are especially vulnerable to sirex attack. It is estimated that this novel pest management approach could save the industry at least $188 million pa based on a conservative estimate of reducing losses by 10%.Read moreRead less