Computational methods for population-size-dependent branching processes. Branching processes are the primary mathematical tool used to model populations that evolve randomly in time. Most key results in the theory are derived under the simplifying assumption that individuals reproduce and die independently of each other. However, this assumption fails in most real-life situations, in particular when the environment has limited resources or when the habitat has a restricted capacity. This project ....Computational methods for population-size-dependent branching processes. Branching processes are the primary mathematical tool used to model populations that evolve randomly in time. Most key results in the theory are derived under the simplifying assumption that individuals reproduce and die independently of each other. However, this assumption fails in most real-life situations, in particular when the environment has limited resources or when the habitat has a restricted capacity. This project aims to develop novel and effective algorithmic techniques and statistical methods for a class of branching processes with dependences. We will use these results to study significant problems in the conservation of endangered island bird populations in Oceania, and to help inform their conservation management.Read moreRead less
Saddlepoint approximation, likelihood analysis and ancestral graphs for strong and weak natural selection, genetic drift and population subdivision. Building new research strength in theoretical population genetics and related statistical techniques will enhance Australia's capability in harnessing the power of post-genomic information. Sophisticated statistical techniques that make smart use of genetic data are being developed in this project. The extent to which natural selection and migrati ....Saddlepoint approximation, likelihood analysis and ancestral graphs for strong and weak natural selection, genetic drift and population subdivision. Building new research strength in theoretical population genetics and related statistical techniques will enhance Australia's capability in harnessing the power of post-genomic information. Sophisticated statistical techniques that make smart use of genetic data are being developed in this project. The extent to which natural selection and migration affect current genetic polymorphism on a population level can be quantified using these new methods. New modeling provides a rigorous foundation with which to construct inference techniques currently beyond computational approaches to the data. Assessing selective effects on genetic mutations associated with human disease will be a consequence of this new statistical methodology.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160100690
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$373,316.00
Summary
Mathematical modelling of the early stages of multicellular evolution. This project aims to develop new mathematical methodology to understand the early stages of the evolution of multicellular organisms from unicellular ancestors. This is the best known example of the creation of a new level of biological organisation. However, the early stages of this transition are poorly understood, especially how early groups of cells came to possess Darwinian characteristics, which then allows natural sele ....Mathematical modelling of the early stages of multicellular evolution. This project aims to develop new mathematical methodology to understand the early stages of the evolution of multicellular organisms from unicellular ancestors. This is the best known example of the creation of a new level of biological organisation. However, the early stages of this transition are poorly understood, especially how early groups of cells came to possess Darwinian characteristics, which then allows natural selection to act on them. It is anticipated that the models produced will be used to give the first mechanistic account of this intrinsically stochastic, multi-level, phenomenon. This may lead to new insights into the emergence and subsequent evolution of simple multicellular life cycles and early forms of development.Read moreRead less
Advanced mathematical models and methods for a randomly-varying world. This project aims to develop advanced stochastic models and novel techniques, to analytically obtain performance measures and to efficiently simulate the time evolution. This project also plans to apply new models and methods to address important problems in ecology and epidemiology. The outputs of this project will advance knowledge in mathematics as well as in the intended application areas, including ultimately in improved ....Advanced mathematical models and methods for a randomly-varying world. This project aims to develop advanced stochastic models and novel techniques, to analytically obtain performance measures and to efficiently simulate the time evolution. This project also plans to apply new models and methods to address important problems in ecology and epidemiology. The outputs of this project will advance knowledge in mathematics as well as in the intended application areas, including ultimately in improved understanding, modelling, and tracking of the spread of diseases.Read moreRead less
New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Operator-Analytic Methods in Telecommunication Systems. Many systems in information technology and telecommunications evolve under conditions of uncertainty. In this context, mathematical modelling is an essential component of the design process. We shall provide techniques for analysing a class of mathematical models, called operator-analytic models, which can be used to study many of the above-mentioned systems, such as the Internet. This project will deliver efficient numerical algorithms tha ....Operator-Analytic Methods in Telecommunication Systems. Many systems in information technology and telecommunications evolve under conditions of uncertainty. In this context, mathematical modelling is an essential component of the design process. We shall provide techniques for analysing a class of mathematical models, called operator-analytic models, which can be used to study many of the above-mentioned systems, such as the Internet. This project will deliver efficient numerical algorithms that will make possible practical analysis of operator-analytic models.Read moreRead less
Doubly Stochastic Matrices & The Hamiltonian Cycle Problem. The classical hard problem of determining whether a given graph possesses a Hamiltonian cycle contains the essential difficulty of the famous 'Travelling Salesman Problem'. A characterisation of this difficulty in terms of variability of returns (to the initial state) in a controlled stochastic process will be a significant conceptual advance with repercussions in a number of fields including optimisation and theoretical computer scien ....Doubly Stochastic Matrices & The Hamiltonian Cycle Problem. The classical hard problem of determining whether a given graph possesses a Hamiltonian cycle contains the essential difficulty of the famous 'Travelling Salesman Problem'. A characterisation of this difficulty in terms of variability of returns (to the initial state) in a controlled stochastic process will be a significant conceptual advance with repercussions in a number of fields including optimisation and theoretical computer science. Algorithmic advances exploiting such a characterisation will significantly contribute to existing technologies for solving problems in applications ranging from logistics to cryptography. Since TSP describes certain efficient ways of routing its applicability to information networks is clear.Read moreRead less
Advanced matrix-analytic methods with applications. Over the last twenty-five years, matrix-analytic methods have proved to be very successful in formulating and analysing certain classes of stochastic models. Motivated by applications, this project will investigate more advanced matrix-analytic methods than have hitherto been studied.
The use of stochastic fluid models for the evaluation of applications-driven sample path integrals. The major technical goal of this project is the production of novel methodologies which can be used to model and solve real-world problems of considerable engineering and/or environmental significance. The research for this project will serve to enhance further Australia's reputation as a country which makes major contributions, both theoretical and practical, to this field. The activities of the ....The use of stochastic fluid models for the evaluation of applications-driven sample path integrals. The major technical goal of this project is the production of novel methodologies which can be used to model and solve real-world problems of considerable engineering and/or environmental significance. The research for this project will serve to enhance further Australia's reputation as a country which makes major contributions, both theoretical and practical, to this field. The activities of the Stochastic Modelling, Analysis and Optimisation group at the University of Adelaide and the School of Mathematics at the University of Tasmania will receive further impetus, consequently maintaining a dynamic research environment for staff and students at both universities. Links between the two groups will be strengthened.Read moreRead less
Mathematical models for water management systems. The Australian community is currently talking about schemes to return water to the Murray-Darling river system to combat increased salinity and dramatically reduced river flow. Many believe that vastly improved water management policies are essential to maintain agricultural well-being in Australia. Salinity and water quality depend directly on flow rates and are also important in smaller catchments. In this study we will use statistical rainf ....Mathematical models for water management systems. The Australian community is currently talking about schemes to return water to the Murray-Darling river system to combat increased salinity and dramatically reduced river flow. Many believe that vastly improved water management policies are essential to maintain agricultural well-being in Australia. Salinity and water quality depend directly on flow rates and are also important in smaller catchments. In this study we will use statistical rainfall models and stochastic dynamic programming to find practical water management policies that minimise the risk to water supply. We will develop an interactive simulation and management tool using a modern computer graphics package.Read moreRead less