A Holocene history of rainfall extremes for the South Pacific . The project aims to generate the longest ever record of rainfall extremes in the Southern Hemisphere (11,700 years) that will be used to update probabilistic recurrence intervals and inform future risks in a warming world. We will apply a palaeoclimate approach to the science of extreme events by using proxy data from stalagmites to investigate natural rainfall variability during the Holocene. Combined with state of the art Global C ....A Holocene history of rainfall extremes for the South Pacific . The project aims to generate the longest ever record of rainfall extremes in the Southern Hemisphere (11,700 years) that will be used to update probabilistic recurrence intervals and inform future risks in a warming world. We will apply a palaeoclimate approach to the science of extreme events by using proxy data from stalagmites to investigate natural rainfall variability during the Holocene. Combined with state of the art Global Climate Model simulations for three major climate events of the Holocene, we will identify mechanisms of long term shifts in heavy rainfall events. The project will provide significant benefits for Australia and the Pacific islands in terms of prediction and preparedness for deluges like we experienced in 2022.Read moreRead less
Past climate and environmental impacts on Great Barrier Reef paleoecology. This project aims to investigate the interconnected processes that led to past reef growth and demise. The iconic Great Barrier Reef and reefs globally are under threat. Yet reefs appear to have undergone cycles of death and recovery, though the causes are poorly understood. This project will reconstruct past climate, rainfall, water quality, coral bleaching and reef ecology feedbacks across Great Barrier Reef death event ....Past climate and environmental impacts on Great Barrier Reef paleoecology. This project aims to investigate the interconnected processes that led to past reef growth and demise. The iconic Great Barrier Reef and reefs globally are under threat. Yet reefs appear to have undergone cycles of death and recovery, though the causes are poorly understood. This project will reconstruct past climate, rainfall, water quality, coral bleaching and reef ecology feedbacks across Great Barrier Reef death events to establish which environmental stressors and paleoclimate variations are most critical for reef health. The outcomes will better constrain long term coral reef dynamics and provide significant benefits to those who manage reefs globally, since the Great Barrier Reef covers the full range of reef environments.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE220100279
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$453,000.00
Summary
Did ocean circulation changes build the Antarctic ice sheet? The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, from its beginning 34 million years ago (Ma) until today, is critical to our understanding of future climate change. This project aims to improve climate and ocean model simulations of the early Oligocene (30 Ma) and middle Miocene (15 Ma), using higher resolution and more accurate paleogeography than has previously been done. Expected outcomes include improvements to paleoclimate reconstructio ....Did ocean circulation changes build the Antarctic ice sheet? The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, from its beginning 34 million years ago (Ma) until today, is critical to our understanding of future climate change. This project aims to improve climate and ocean model simulations of the early Oligocene (30 Ma) and middle Miocene (15 Ma), using higher resolution and more accurate paleogeography than has previously been done. Expected outcomes include improvements to paleoclimate reconstructions, better constraints on future climate change, and a better understanding of the impact of ocean eddies on Antarctic climate. These outcomes should strengthen Australia’s long-term program of climate modelling, and enable more effective climate adaptation, mitigation and risk management.Read moreRead less
Fire and rain: Drivers of deep-time ecosystem assembly in Australia. This project aims to investigate the influence of bushfires and shifting rainfall patterns on the development of Australia’s dominant ecosystems. By combining a range of novel geochemical, isotopic and palaeontological techniques, this research seeks to reveal the causes and consequences of Australia’s transformation from a forested to mainly open landscape of grassland, shrubland and savannah. The expected outcome is detailed ....Fire and rain: Drivers of deep-time ecosystem assembly in Australia. This project aims to investigate the influence of bushfires and shifting rainfall patterns on the development of Australia’s dominant ecosystems. By combining a range of novel geochemical, isotopic and palaeontological techniques, this research seeks to reveal the causes and consequences of Australia’s transformation from a forested to mainly open landscape of grassland, shrubland and savannah. The expected outcome is detailed knowledge of how changes in fire and rain shaped the ecology and evolution of plants and animals. This knowledge is key to understanding how Australian ecosystems function and to protecting their cultural, economic and environmental values, especially as climate and fire regimes continue to change into the future.Read moreRead less
Back to the Future: Interglacial Warming and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet . The Antarctic is highly-sensitive to abrupt changes caused by the passing of tipping points within the climate system. Crucially, the instrumental record is too short to resolve major uncertainties surrounding future warming. The Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) was 2°C warmer than today and experienced 6-11 m higher global sea levels. The role of Antarctica is vital for constraining sea-level projections. This Austra ....Back to the Future: Interglacial Warming and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet . The Antarctic is highly-sensitive to abrupt changes caused by the passing of tipping points within the climate system. Crucially, the instrumental record is too short to resolve major uncertainties surrounding future warming. The Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) was 2°C warmer than today and experienced 6-11 m higher global sea levels. The role of Antarctica is vital for constraining sea-level projections. This Australian-led international project aims to determine the mechanisms and impacts of past interglacial Antarctic warming up to 2°C (relative to pre-industrial). Innovative techniques integrating horizontal ice cores and high resolution marine records will help identify polar tipping points and better plan for impacts in Australia.Read moreRead less
Resolving the Maya climate-collapse hypothesis. This project aims to test the climate-collapse theory by developing detailed records of climate and social change from Maya cities that did not collapse, and in doing so identify why some cities were more resilient to the impact of climatic variability than others. Catastrophic climate variability is often invoked to explain the historic collapse of large low-density urban centres in the global tropics. The collapse of the Maya civilisation of Cent ....Resolving the Maya climate-collapse hypothesis. This project aims to test the climate-collapse theory by developing detailed records of climate and social change from Maya cities that did not collapse, and in doing so identify why some cities were more resilient to the impact of climatic variability than others. Catastrophic climate variability is often invoked to explain the historic collapse of large low-density urban centres in the global tropics. The collapse of the Maya civilisation of Central America after the 8th century AD is the archetypal social collapse yet, despite robust evidence for drought across Central America, archaeological evidence suggests a heterogenous social response. This project will reveal what social, material, or environmental properties facilitated resiliency in historic urban centres confronting climatic variability.Read moreRead less
New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently und ....New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently underestimated or missing in climate models. The expected outcomes include a better understanding of the non-linear responses in the climate system. This should provide significant benefits, such as an assessment of whether the smooth climate changes currently projected through to year 2100 are misleading.Read moreRead less
Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture bud ....Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture budgets between Australia and Antarctica based on a novel, 1000-year length reconstruction of moisture-bearing southern Indian Ocean storms. This new information is critically needed by water managers so that they can properly calculate (and ultimately prepare for) the worst of Australia’s rainfall-related risks.Read moreRead less
Millennial climate change in southern Australia during the Last Glacial. Abrupt warming and cooling events were a persistent feature of Earth's most recent climate cycle. Surprisingly, little is known of how these events affected the climate of Australia. This project will produce precisely dated reconstructions of rainfall and temperature trends in southern Australia during these events. These new terrestrial and ocean data will be compared with model simulations to determine how rapidly abrupt ....Millennial climate change in southern Australia during the Last Glacial. Abrupt warming and cooling events were a persistent feature of Earth's most recent climate cycle. Surprisingly, little is known of how these events affected the climate of Australia. This project will produce precisely dated reconstructions of rainfall and temperature trends in southern Australia during these events. These new terrestrial and ocean data will be compared with model simulations to determine how rapidly abrupt climate perturbations in the Northern Hemisphere reached our region, and the processes by which this occurred. The results will advance theory on how abrupt climate change propagates globally and provide a long-awaited climatic context for capstone events in Australia's natural history.Read moreRead less
New insights on the forcing of Quaternary ice-age terminations. This project investigates the period when Earth's climate last experienced a major step change. Using novel techniques, it combines information from an exceptional archive of cave deposits and ocean sediments to precisely determine the timing of ice-age cycles. The results will provide the first robust test of hypotheses proposed to explain these cycles, leading to refinements in the astronomical theory of the ice ages. They will al ....New insights on the forcing of Quaternary ice-age terminations. This project investigates the period when Earth's climate last experienced a major step change. Using novel techniques, it combines information from an exceptional archive of cave deposits and ocean sediments to precisely determine the timing of ice-age cycles. The results will provide the first robust test of hypotheses proposed to explain these cycles, leading to refinements in the astronomical theory of the ice ages. They will also provide an essential reference record of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet history, which will complement data from forthcoming Antarctic ice cores. Together, this will better contextualise current and projected greenhouse warming.Read moreRead less