Robust prediction and decision strategies for managing extinction risks under climate change. Climate change is a principal threat to biodiversity and ecosystem health. The loss of ecosystem services from loss of species and ecosystem change may have serious social and economic repercussions. Unreliable predictions of climate change impacts and inefficient adaptation decisions result in wasted public resources and unnecessary loss of natural assets. In addition to direct benefits of efficient ad ....Robust prediction and decision strategies for managing extinction risks under climate change. Climate change is a principal threat to biodiversity and ecosystem health. The loss of ecosystem services from loss of species and ecosystem change may have serious social and economic repercussions. Unreliable predictions of climate change impacts and inefficient adaptation decisions result in wasted public resources and unnecessary loss of natural assets. In addition to direct benefits of efficient adaptation strategies for case-study ecosystems, techniques arising from this research will improve the way we respond to uncertain, but potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. Bringing state-of-the-art modelling and formal decision methods to climate change adaptation is a central aim of this research.Read moreRead less
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in afforested ecosystems in southeastern Australia - fluxes, processes and regional budget. There are no data available about the extent of emissions of the non-CO2 greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane from soils of forest ecosystems in Australia and the current methodolgy to quantify these emissions contains high uncertainties. Using the latest technology available we propose to i) measure emission rates of afforested ecosystems for non-CO2 greenhouse gase ....Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in afforested ecosystems in southeastern Australia - fluxes, processes and regional budget. There are no data available about the extent of emissions of the non-CO2 greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane from soils of forest ecosystems in Australia and the current methodolgy to quantify these emissions contains high uncertainties. Using the latest technology available we propose to i) measure emission rates of afforested ecosystems for non-CO2 greenhouse gases in relation to previous land-use in southeastern Australia, ii) identify the processes controlling the emissions, iii) use the obtained data to calibrate a biogeochemical model, and iv) use the model to estimate regional inventories for non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in southeastern Australia.Read moreRead less
Invasive plant species and climate change in Australia: predicting the threat and projecting the future. The interaction between climate change and invasive pest species poses a significant threat to Australia's biodiversity. The need for research on both the independent impacts of climate change and invasive species, as well as their interaction, has been clearly identified by both national and state governments, and is identified as a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change ....Invasive plant species and climate change in Australia: predicting the threat and projecting the future. The interaction between climate change and invasive pest species poses a significant threat to Australia's biodiversity. The need for research on both the independent impacts of climate change and invasive species, as well as their interaction, has been clearly identified by both national and state governments, and is identified as a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). The proposed research will assess exotic plant species' responses to climate change, identify potential hotspots of invasion, and provide a risk assessment framework to enable prioritization of exotic plant management under future climate.Read moreRead less
Mid-rotation diagnosis and management options for correction of water and nutrient deficiencies in plantation-grown eucalypts. This research will improve productivity of bluegum plantations by improving current diagnostic techniques (foliage and soil analysis) for nutrient disorders and the supply of water. Using a novel phloem sampling and analysis technique, we will develop a nutrient (e.g. N, P) and water diagnosis procedure that is quick, cheap, robust and reliable for field use. A major in ....Mid-rotation diagnosis and management options for correction of water and nutrient deficiencies in plantation-grown eucalypts. This research will improve productivity of bluegum plantations by improving current diagnostic techniques (foliage and soil analysis) for nutrient disorders and the supply of water. Using a novel phloem sampling and analysis technique, we will develop a nutrient (e.g. N, P) and water diagnosis procedure that is quick, cheap, robust and reliable for field use. A major innovation will be distinguishing the effects of shortages of water on growth from those of other growth influences. Overall, this project will provide a highly significant theoretical, conceptual and practical advance in mid-rotation, diagnostics for plantations with considerable commercial promise.Read moreRead less
Cellular automata model of forest stands to predict size-class distribution and survival. Existing forest growth models predict well stand level processes such as growth. However, they provide little information on forest structure and how this affects commercial forest products, risks of growing plantations and stand dynamics that determine carbon sequestration and water-use and result in age-related decline in productivity and self-thinning. By using newly developed technology to quantify in ....Cellular automata model of forest stands to predict size-class distribution and survival. Existing forest growth models predict well stand level processes such as growth. However, they provide little information on forest structure and how this affects commercial forest products, risks of growing plantations and stand dynamics that determine carbon sequestration and water-use and result in age-related decline in productivity and self-thinning. By using newly developed technology to quantify inter-tree competition, tree level resource supply, between tree genetic differences and the importance of chance events this project will draw on complexity theory to develop an innovative model that partitions stand level production to forecast the growth and size of individual trees.Read moreRead less
Improved tools for comprehensive monitoring of water-clarity and light availability in coral reef ecosystems. The Great Barrier Reef is a World Heritage Area, home to over 1 million species and provides Australia with $6 billion in annual revenue. The capacity to monitor Australia’s natural resources and changes in condition are integral components of a sustainably and adaptively managed resource. By providing key synoptic tools to comprehensively monitor water quality and ecosystem status, the ....Improved tools for comprehensive monitoring of water-clarity and light availability in coral reef ecosystems. The Great Barrier Reef is a World Heritage Area, home to over 1 million species and provides Australia with $6 billion in annual revenue. The capacity to monitor Australia’s natural resources and changes in condition are integral components of a sustainably and adaptively managed resource. By providing key synoptic tools to comprehensively monitor water quality and ecosystem status, the project will contribute directly to an Environmentally Sustainable Australia and improve national capacity for responding to climate change and variability in coral reef environments. It will enable Australian remote sensing scientists to contribute knowledge and tools to the international community for application to coral reef and coastal waters globally. Read moreRead less
Satellite-Based Radio Occultation for Atmospheric Sounding, Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring in the Australian Region. Global climate change and its associated risks are serious issues because the resultant storms, fires, floods, droughts and cyclones are weather events affecting Australia. However, the predictability of such phenomena is seriously limited due to sparse atmospheric sensor distribution. This project will investigate new space-borne and ground-based radio occultation tec ....Satellite-Based Radio Occultation for Atmospheric Sounding, Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring in the Australian Region. Global climate change and its associated risks are serious issues because the resultant storms, fires, floods, droughts and cyclones are weather events affecting Australia. However, the predictability of such phenomena is seriously limited due to sparse atmospheric sensor distribution. This project will investigate new space-borne and ground-based radio occultation techniques, atmospheric sounding technologies and their fusion to overcome such constraints. This project is dedicated to developing superior national capabilities in anticipating, analysing and investigating critical meteorological threats to Australia. This research will significantly upgrade Australia's meteorological services and contribute to the global community.Read moreRead less
Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Multi-Scale Analysis of the Vulnerability of Coral Reefs to Ocean Acidification. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is one of Australia's biggest icons, and represents more than 10% of the world's coral reefs. It is a World Heritage Area and is home to more than 1 million species. The GBR provides Australia with more than $6 billion in annual national revenue. To help manage for sustained resilience of the GBR in an era of climate change, Australia needs to understand the major threats, in particular ....Multi-Scale Analysis of the Vulnerability of Coral Reefs to Ocean Acidification. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is one of Australia's biggest icons, and represents more than 10% of the world's coral reefs. It is a World Heritage Area and is home to more than 1 million species. The GBR provides Australia with more than $6 billion in annual national revenue. To help manage for sustained resilience of the GBR in an era of climate change, Australia needs to understand the major threats, in particular ocean acidification. By producing an innovative framework for assessing acidification risks, the project will help Australia demonstrate continued stewardship of one of the world's richest and most sensitive ecosystems.Read moreRead less
Resilience of Moreton Bay to climate change: Links between nutrient inputs and plankton dynamics. A healthy Moreton Bay, with its lucrative fishing, iconic turtles, dugongs and seabirds, helps support the $9 billion per annum tourist industry in SE Queensland. Moreton Bay is under increasing threat from nutrients produced by a mushrooming coastal population and from climate change impacts. Here we investigate nutrient-plankton relationships and develop a simple model to evaluate future impacts o ....Resilience of Moreton Bay to climate change: Links between nutrient inputs and plankton dynamics. A healthy Moreton Bay, with its lucrative fishing, iconic turtles, dugongs and seabirds, helps support the $9 billion per annum tourist industry in SE Queensland. Moreton Bay is under increasing threat from nutrients produced by a mushrooming coastal population and from climate change impacts. Here we investigate nutrient-plankton relationships and develop a simple model to evaluate future impacts on bay health. This project will put Australian scientists at the forefront of research focused on the adaptation of coastal marine environments to climate impacts, and ensure that Moreton Bay remains healthy now and into the futureRead moreRead less