Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island whic ....Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island which is the optimal site to capture El Niño variability at several different time scales, and will lead to a better understanding of atmospheric and oceanic factors that have caused climate variability.Read moreRead less
Drought, El Niño and Climate Change in Queensland over the last 200,000 years: the Lynch's Crater lake record. Lynch's Crater (Queensland) provides the longest, most sensitive terrestrial record of vegetation and climate change in the low altitude tropics. A multidisciplinary approach will exploit the potential of a core collected in 2003 through high-resolution multiproxy (sedimentology, geochemistry, stable and radiogenic isotopes, pollen, charcoal and diatoms) studies. The results will contri ....Drought, El Niño and Climate Change in Queensland over the last 200,000 years: the Lynch's Crater lake record. Lynch's Crater (Queensland) provides the longest, most sensitive terrestrial record of vegetation and climate change in the low altitude tropics. A multidisciplinary approach will exploit the potential of a core collected in 2003 through high-resolution multiproxy (sedimentology, geochemistry, stable and radiogenic isotopes, pollen, charcoal and diatoms) studies. The results will contribute substantially to the resolution of current debates on the role of the tropics in global climate forcing at a variety of temporal scales, including that of the El Niño phenomenon. The reconstruction of temperature and precipitation over the past 200,000 years will improve global climate databases and prediction models.Read moreRead less
Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Metabolite pools and their implications for plant responses to global change. Australian landscape management faces significant challenges from existing land practices and the effects of climate change. Effective management and targeted remediation requires an understanding of the processes that drive ecosystem function. The development of broadly applicable tools for the monitoring of plant and ecosystem health is therefore of considerable interest. Flexibility in core processes of plant functi ....Metabolite pools and their implications for plant responses to global change. Australian landscape management faces significant challenges from existing land practices and the effects of climate change. Effective management and targeted remediation requires an understanding of the processes that drive ecosystem function. The development of broadly applicable tools for the monitoring of plant and ecosystem health is therefore of considerable interest. Flexibility in core processes of plant function represents a significant opportunity to develop such tools. With a focus on plant metabolites, this project will characterise how Australian trees alter the allocation of resources to cope with environmental changes and produce metabolite-based selective traits for stress tolerance in Australian trees. Read moreRead less
Where will species go? Revolutionising projections of species distributions with climate change. Improving our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity is a National Research Priority and a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). Our research will revolutionise the field of bioclimatic modelling by enabling the probability of losses/gains in species distributions to be calculated. This will enable policy makers to identify vulnerable ....Where will species go? Revolutionising projections of species distributions with climate change. Improving our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity is a National Research Priority and a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). Our research will revolutionise the field of bioclimatic modelling by enabling the probability of losses/gains in species distributions to be calculated. This will enable policy makers to identify vulnerable species and provides a strong framework for prioritizing areas for research and monitoring. Our research will interface two disciplines, earth and biological sciences, and establish a new international collaboration that will ensure Australia is at the forefront of a rapidly developing research field. Read moreRead less
Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Impact of reforestation on the mitigation of climate extremes in eastern Australia resulting from global warming. This project will provide new information for climate change policy development and the goal of an Environmentally Sustainable Australia. It has a strong policy-management imperative, investigating the need for the maintenance and restoration of healthy native vegetation cover as part of Australia’s climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Our previous research has shown ....Impact of reforestation on the mitigation of climate extremes in eastern Australia resulting from global warming. This project will provide new information for climate change policy development and the goal of an Environmentally Sustainable Australia. It has a strong policy-management imperative, investigating the need for the maintenance and restoration of healthy native vegetation cover as part of Australia’s climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Our previous research has shown that land clearing has contributed to climate change, including more severe and persisting droughts, in eastern Australia. Successful implementation of the research findings will lead to an increased ability of regional landscapes to buffer against a more extreme future climate driven by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.Read moreRead less
Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
Australasian climate reconstruction for the past two millennia. The results generated during this Fellowship will provide a greater understanding of the sensitivity of the Australasian region to the natural range of climatic variability (far beyond that recorded by historical datasets). Focussing on the past two millennia, the applicant will help investigate the timing, rate and magnitude of change, allowing a robust test of whether past changes were in phase with the Northern Hemisphere. The ....Australasian climate reconstruction for the past two millennia. The results generated during this Fellowship will provide a greater understanding of the sensitivity of the Australasian region to the natural range of climatic variability (far beyond that recorded by historical datasets). Focussing on the past two millennia, the applicant will help investigate the timing, rate and magnitude of change, allowing a robust test of whether past changes were in phase with the Northern Hemisphere. The results will provide a considerably improved context for understanding present and future climate change in the Australasian region. Read moreRead less