Climate model validation and generation of probabilistic climate projections using data from Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. New climate model results will be compared with observations to test model skill. Probabilistic projections of regional-scale climate change will be developed and used to investigate a number of ecosystem impact case studies.
Climate change and migration in China: theoretical, empirical and policy dimensions. This project will analyse the complex relationship between climate change and migration by focussing in depth on two areas in China anticipated being major hotspots of Climate change impact. It will provide insight into national and international policy development in Climate change mitigation and adaptations.
Comparative Paleogenomics of the Arctic Tundra Ecosystem: the genetic response of plants and animals to climate change. This project will use DNA from deep-frozen seeds and bones 100,000 years old to record how species respond to climate change - by adapting and surviving or by shifting ranges and moving. Very large numbers of genes will be examined to identify changes across the genomes of four plant and two animal species, and contrast the responses to major climatic shifts.
Using phylogenomics to record the impacts of climate change, extinction and population fragmentation. This project will use ancient DNA from permafrost-preserved Steppe bison bones and bovid exome capture systems to build a detailed record of the genomic impacts of rapid climate and environmental change at the end of the Pleistocene (30 to 11 kyr). The project will analyse how ancestral genetic diversity is distributed amongst surviving bison populations, and the role of nuclear loci under selec ....Using phylogenomics to record the impacts of climate change, extinction and population fragmentation. This project will use ancient DNA from permafrost-preserved Steppe bison bones and bovid exome capture systems to build a detailed record of the genomic impacts of rapid climate and environmental change at the end of the Pleistocene (30 to 11 kyr). The project will analyse how ancestral genetic diversity is distributed amongst surviving bison populations, and the role of nuclear loci under selection and drift. It will create a novel temporal dataset of genomic adaptation and evolution, and will generate critical data for studies of evolutionary processes such as extinctions, speciation and conservation biology and management.Read moreRead less
Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon release ....Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon released into the atmosphere – burial of carbon in sediments. This project will develop a computer model representation of this coupled carbon-climate-life system and test this against the geological record, explore the causes and consequences of carbon release events and extinctions as well as how the ocean floor delivery and preservation of organic carbon responds.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130101571
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Assimilation of ocean wave interactions with sea ice into climate models. Contemporary climate models do not accurately portray ocean or atmosphere interactions where the open ocean meets the expanses of floating sea ice within the polar regions, as they lack a component to determine the size of ice floes. This project will tackle the omission directly, developing from modelling advances made in recent years.
Meta-modelling of ecological, evolutionary and climatic systems dynamics. This project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. Using dynamic systems modelling, tested against field data from a wide variety of case studies, the project models will integrate a variety of biological and geophysical inputs to produce more realistic forecasts of change.
Systems modelling for synergistic ecological-climate dynamics. The project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. A systems modelling framework will be developed and tested against real-world data to integrate a wide variety of biological and geophysical inputs and so produce more realistic predictions.
Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imp ....Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.Read moreRead less
Using ancient DNA to understand Australia's past and manage its future. The aim of this program is to establish an ancient DNA research centre for Australia, and use long-term natural records to investigate the genetic responses of animals, plants, and micro-organisms to environmental change. By examining biological processes before, during, and after major changes (eg coral bleaching, salination) the evolution and selective pressures at important genetic loci will be identified, and related to ....Using ancient DNA to understand Australia's past and manage its future. The aim of this program is to establish an ancient DNA research centre for Australia, and use long-term natural records to investigate the genetic responses of animals, plants, and micro-organisms to environmental change. By examining biological processes before, during, and after major changes (eg coral bleaching, salination) the evolution and selective pressures at important genetic loci will be identified, and related to environmental change to enhance effected planning and future management of Australia's ecosystems, biodiversity and tourism. Key records will come from lake-beds, billabongs, coral reefs, rodent nests, megafaunal bones, and ancient human material.Read moreRead less