Meta-modelling of ecological, evolutionary and climatic systems dynamics. This project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. Using dynamic systems modelling, tested against field data from a wide variety of case studies, the project models will integrate a variety of biological and geophysical inputs to produce more realistic forecasts of change.
Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, ra ....Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, rainfall, soil type), which determine the limits of species' ranges. Our models will provide Australian conservation managers with a novel, validated toolbox to explore the trade-offs, and synergies, inherent in trying to adapt to climate change and other stressors on biodiversity.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing past population dynamics to understand human and climatic impacts in prehistory. More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research will determine the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the last 46 millennia. Our approach is powerful and novel because it will effectively draw together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exp ....Reconstructing past population dynamics to understand human and climatic impacts in prehistory. More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research will determine the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the last 46 millennia. Our approach is powerful and novel because it will effectively draw together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exploitation and habitat alteration by ancient people, and the influence of dramatic climatic shifts on the Australian biota. Information on past biological responses to environmental change is critical to properly contextualising the current impact, and long-term consequences of, threats such as global warming, habitat loss and invasive species.Read moreRead less
Generalised methods for testing extinction dynamics across geological, near and modern time scales. The record of extinctions over deep time is patchy and incomplete, yet we must use it to determine how major changes in past environments have shaped life on Earth today. The project will develop cutting-edge mathematical tools to determine the patterns of extinctions and speciation over geological time to help predict our uncertain environmental future.
Fire, air, water and earth: Using fossils to discover the evolution of Australia’s open vegetation. How Australia came to be dominated by open, tough-leaved vegetation is an old but still highly controversial question, especially with recent developments in molecular biology that challenge paradigms established from the fossil record. The project will test this new molecular paradigm with innovative use of characteristics of fossil leaves to identify the timing and drivers of the evolution of Au ....Fire, air, water and earth: Using fossils to discover the evolution of Australia’s open vegetation. How Australia came to be dominated by open, tough-leaved vegetation is an old but still highly controversial question, especially with recent developments in molecular biology that challenge paradigms established from the fossil record. The project will test this new molecular paradigm with innovative use of characteristics of fossil leaves to identify the timing and drivers of the evolution of Australia’s open vegetation. The integration of new and rigorous evidence derived from living and fossil plants will provide the clearest evidence yet for the origins of Australian environments. This has ramifications for understanding plant responses to past and future climate changes.Read moreRead less
Capturing Proteus: 65 million years of ecosystem change revealed through evolution of Proteaceae in Australasia. By assessing past changes in the iconic Australian plant family Proteaceae, this research will show how the Australasian vegetation has responded to 65 million years of profound landscape and climate changes. This knowledge from the past will give important insights into how ecosystems can be expected to change under future climate scenarios.
Why our biota is unique: ecophysiological response, adaptive radiation and changing environments in Cainozoic Australia. We seek to resolve Cainozoic diversification and extinction patterns leading to the modern Australian biota. We propose a broad-scale, multi-disciplinary approach involving systematic palaeontology, palaeobiology, biostratigraphy, molecular and morphological systematics and physiology of modern organisms. For the first time, we will synthesise data on past climatic and environ ....Why our biota is unique: ecophysiological response, adaptive radiation and changing environments in Cainozoic Australia. We seek to resolve Cainozoic diversification and extinction patterns leading to the modern Australian biota. We propose a broad-scale, multi-disciplinary approach involving systematic palaeontology, palaeobiology, biostratigraphy, molecular and morphological systematics and physiology of modern organisms. For the first time, we will synthesise data on past climatic and environmental influences on the evolution of Australian plants, animals and community structure through time. This will provide a solid historical basis to develop management strategies for the Australian biota under different, future, climatic scenarios, and will also provide a biostratigraphic framework essential for high-resolution mineral and hydrocarbon exploration.Read moreRead less
Improved management of coastal plankton systems by ancient DNA technology. This project aims to assemble comprehensive long term Australian plankton records spanning 50 to 1000 years, by applying ancient DNA technology to dated sediment depth cores. Long-term data for Australian coastal and estuarine waters are sparse, so cannot be used for management of fisheries, tourism or urban development. Long-term records are essential to understand how disruptive algal and jellyfish blooms, introduced sp ....Improved management of coastal plankton systems by ancient DNA technology. This project aims to assemble comprehensive long term Australian plankton records spanning 50 to 1000 years, by applying ancient DNA technology to dated sediment depth cores. Long-term data for Australian coastal and estuarine waters are sparse, so cannot be used for management of fisheries, tourism or urban development. Long-term records are essential to understand how disruptive algal and jellyfish blooms, introduced species and increased human use of coastal resources affect dynamic plankton ecosystems. This project’s findings are expected to explore cyclical patterns, define range expansions and understand and manage how dynamic coastal ecosystems respond to multistressor anthropogenic change. Findings will improve understanding of how dynamic marine environments retain their biodiversity values and critical ecological functions.Read moreRead less
Detecting and deciphering extinction dynamics under environmental change. This project aims to improve knowledge of extinction processes and impacts. It will use high-performance computing and museum collections to disentangle the ecological mechanisms that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of Australia's unique mammals. Its significance is that it will establish the historical ranges and past population trajectories of Australian threatened mammals, pinpointing the combi ....Detecting and deciphering extinction dynamics under environmental change. This project aims to improve knowledge of extinction processes and impacts. It will use high-performance computing and museum collections to disentangle the ecological mechanisms that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of Australia's unique mammals. Its significance is that it will establish the historical ranges and past population trajectories of Australian threatened mammals, pinpointing the combinations of ecological characteristics and threats that most affect risk of extinction from environmental change. Expected outcomes and benefits are new data and verified models to enrich conservation research and inform evidence-based solutions to better protect and recover some of Australia’s most threatened species.Read moreRead less
Governing solar radiation management research, development and deployment. This project will expand Australia’s climate response options by developing a governance framework for research, development and deployment of solar radiation management. These emerging technologies seek to reflect part of the sun’s energy from the earth to reduce climate change impacts. Through case studies of key proposals, marine cloud brightening and stratospheric aerosol injection, the project aims to develop nationa ....Governing solar radiation management research, development and deployment. This project will expand Australia’s climate response options by developing a governance framework for research, development and deployment of solar radiation management. These emerging technologies seek to reflect part of the sun’s energy from the earth to reduce climate change impacts. Through case studies of key proposals, marine cloud brightening and stratospheric aerosol injection, the project aims to develop national laws and research policies to responsibly govern research, development and deployment in Australia. This will deliver benefits for Australian governments, civil society, communities and researchers by managing risks and building public confidence in these technologies and provide a best practice model for other countries.Read moreRead less