Meta-modelling of ecological, evolutionary and climatic systems dynamics. This project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. Using dynamic systems modelling, tested against field data from a wide variety of case studies, the project models will integrate a variety of biological and geophysical inputs to produce more realistic forecasts of change.
Systems modelling for synergistic ecological-climate dynamics. The project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. A systems modelling framework will be developed and tested against real-world data to integrate a wide variety of biological and geophysical inputs and so produce more realistic predictions.
Multi-model predictions of ecosystem flux under climate change based on novel genetic and image analysis methods. Improving the forecasts of ecosystem shifts must be a key focus of future ecological research if we are to preserve our unique Australian landscapes. Our proposal is of clear benefit to Australia because of the urgent need for integrated methods to predict the cumulative impact of shifts in climate and land use. We will also contribute innovative tools involving genetic and image ana ....Multi-model predictions of ecosystem flux under climate change based on novel genetic and image analysis methods. Improving the forecasts of ecosystem shifts must be a key focus of future ecological research if we are to preserve our unique Australian landscapes. Our proposal is of clear benefit to Australia because of the urgent need for integrated methods to predict the cumulative impact of shifts in climate and land use. We will also contribute innovative tools involving genetic and image analysis, and state-of-the-art modelling. The damage modern human societies are inflicting on global environments has led to a great demand for logistically feasible and cost-effective ways to prevent biodiversity loss.Read moreRead less
An integrated tool for informing pest management: modelling range shifts for an invasive vertebrate in response to climate change. Invasive species and climate contribute directly to loss of biodiversity and economic productivity. This research project focuses on providing user-orientated tools that enable a strategic approach to European rabbit management and vertebrate pest control in Australia in response to anticipated climate and land-use change.
Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, ra ....Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, rainfall, soil type), which determine the limits of species' ranges. Our models will provide Australian conservation managers with a novel, validated toolbox to explore the trade-offs, and synergies, inherent in trying to adapt to climate change and other stressors on biodiversity.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing past population dynamics to understand human and climatic impacts in prehistory. More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research will determine the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the last 46 millennia. Our approach is powerful and novel because it will effectively draw together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exp ....Reconstructing past population dynamics to understand human and climatic impacts in prehistory. More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research will determine the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the last 46 millennia. Our approach is powerful and novel because it will effectively draw together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exploitation and habitat alteration by ancient people, and the influence of dramatic climatic shifts on the Australian biota. Information on past biological responses to environmental change is critical to properly contextualising the current impact, and long-term consequences of, threats such as global warming, habitat loss and invasive species.Read moreRead less
Generalised methods for testing extinction dynamics across geological, near and modern time scales. The record of extinctions over deep time is patchy and incomplete, yet we must use it to determine how major changes in past environments have shaped life on Earth today. The project will develop cutting-edge mathematical tools to determine the patterns of extinctions and speciation over geological time to help predict our uncertain environmental future.
Fire, air, water and earth: Using fossils to discover the evolution of Australia’s open vegetation. How Australia came to be dominated by open, tough-leaved vegetation is an old but still highly controversial question, especially with recent developments in molecular biology that challenge paradigms established from the fossil record. The project will test this new molecular paradigm with innovative use of characteristics of fossil leaves to identify the timing and drivers of the evolution of Au ....Fire, air, water and earth: Using fossils to discover the evolution of Australia’s open vegetation. How Australia came to be dominated by open, tough-leaved vegetation is an old but still highly controversial question, especially with recent developments in molecular biology that challenge paradigms established from the fossil record. The project will test this new molecular paradigm with innovative use of characteristics of fossil leaves to identify the timing and drivers of the evolution of Australia’s open vegetation. The integration of new and rigorous evidence derived from living and fossil plants will provide the clearest evidence yet for the origins of Australian environments. This has ramifications for understanding plant responses to past and future climate changes.Read moreRead less
Capturing Proteus: 65 million years of ecosystem change revealed through evolution of Proteaceae in Australasia. By assessing past changes in the iconic Australian plant family Proteaceae, this research will show how the Australasian vegetation has responded to 65 million years of profound landscape and climate changes. This knowledge from the past will give important insights into how ecosystems can be expected to change under future climate scenarios.
Improving prediction of rocky reef ecosystem responses to human impacts. This project aims to improve our understanding of inshore ecosystems to facilitate better management of our living marine heritage. The project first aims to extend field datasets on the density and distribution of thousands of marine fishes, invertebrates and macro-algae. These will then be combined using recent advances in quantitative ecological modelling to describe transfer of biomass between species at hundreds of sit ....Improving prediction of rocky reef ecosystem responses to human impacts. This project aims to improve our understanding of inshore ecosystems to facilitate better management of our living marine heritage. The project first aims to extend field datasets on the density and distribution of thousands of marine fishes, invertebrates and macro-algae. These will then be combined using recent advances in quantitative ecological modelling to describe transfer of biomass between species at hundreds of sites, with a primary focus on southern Australia. It is anticipated that this will provide site-level indices of major food web processes that, when combined with ‘before, after, control, impact’ data, will improve prediction of ecological consequences of fishing, climate change, pest outbreaks and pollution.Read moreRead less