Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imp ....Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.Read moreRead less
An integrated tool for informing pest management: modelling range shifts for an invasive vertebrate in response to climate change. Invasive species and climate contribute directly to loss of biodiversity and economic productivity. This research project focuses on providing user-orientated tools that enable a strategic approach to European rabbit management and vertebrate pest control in Australia in response to anticipated climate and land-use change.
Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, ra ....Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, rainfall, soil type), which determine the limits of species' ranges. Our models will provide Australian conservation managers with a novel, validated toolbox to explore the trade-offs, and synergies, inherent in trying to adapt to climate change and other stressors on biodiversity.Read moreRead less
Building Australia's next-generation ocean-sea ice model. Ocean and sea ice models are used for predicting future ocean and climate states, and for climate process research. This project aims to bring the next generation of ocean-sea ice models to Australia and configure the models for our local priorities. The ultimate goal is to create a new coupled ocean-sea ice model for Australia that includes surface waves and biogeochemistry. The model will be optimised and evaluated on Australian facilit ....Building Australia's next-generation ocean-sea ice model. Ocean and sea ice models are used for predicting future ocean and climate states, and for climate process research. This project aims to bring the next generation of ocean-sea ice models to Australia and configure the models for our local priorities. The ultimate goal is to create a new coupled ocean-sea ice model for Australia that includes surface waves and biogeochemistry. The model will be optimised and evaluated on Australian facilities, and released for community use. These developments underpin future ocean state forecasts, sea ice forecasts, wave forecasts, decadal climate prediction and climate process studies. The project will benefit search and rescue, Defence and shipping operations, and will enhance future climate projections.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing the impact of climate change on Australian native species. This project will explore the impact of past climate change on Australian native animals to identify species and ecosystems at greatest potential risk, and to help predict and minimise the effects of future change.
Generalised methods for testing extinction dynamics across geological, near and modern time scales. The record of extinctions over deep time is patchy and incomplete, yet we must use it to determine how major changes in past environments have shaped life on Earth today. The project will develop cutting-edge mathematical tools to determine the patterns of extinctions and speciation over geological time to help predict our uncertain environmental future.
Evolution in tooth and claw: exploring the relationship between the radiation of marsupial herbivores and late Cenozoic climate change. Establishing how animals responded to past environmental changes is essential for understanding the ecology of modern species and managing them in light of contemporary climatic trends. By applying several novel analytical methods this project will unravel the links between the radiation of Australian marsupials and key stages in climatic evolution.
Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR200100005
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$36,000,000.00
Summary
Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future. This program aims to deliver unprecedented research capability for securing Antarctic environments in the face of uncertain change.
By integrating a highly skilled team with new approaches and breakthrough technologies, the program anticipates discovery science, enhanced environmental forecasting and optimised decision-making to advance Australia’s position as an influential Antarctic nation.
Expected outcomes include better environmental management ....Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future. This program aims to deliver unprecedented research capability for securing Antarctic environments in the face of uncertain change.
By integrating a highly skilled team with new approaches and breakthrough technologies, the program anticipates discovery science, enhanced environmental forecasting and optimised decision-making to advance Australia’s position as an influential Antarctic nation.
Expected outcomes include better environmental management, unparalleled strategic decision-support for an effective Antarctic Treaty, and new minds to address Antarctica’s new challenges.
Anticipated benefits are the means to transform environmental forecasting and management in the Antarctic, for Australia, and to the advantage of global security.Read moreRead less
Silicon: a novel solution to reduce water use and pest damage in wheat. The project aims to improve Australian wheat production by increasing drought resilience and reducing reliance on pesticides. This is achieved by incorporating amorphous silicon (Si), an abundant national resource. Si uptake by wheat has been proven to alleviate stress from drought and pests, but mechanisms and agronomic feasibility remain to be fully assessed. The project will deliver a mechanistic understanding of how Si a ....Silicon: a novel solution to reduce water use and pest damage in wheat. The project aims to improve Australian wheat production by increasing drought resilience and reducing reliance on pesticides. This is achieved by incorporating amorphous silicon (Si), an abundant national resource. Si uptake by wheat has been proven to alleviate stress from drought and pests, but mechanisms and agronomic feasibility remain to be fully assessed. The project will deliver a mechanistic understanding of how Si alleviates stress in wheat, from gene to farm scale, providing cost-benefit analysis and a best–practice toolbox for implementation by farmers. Outcomes are anticipated to provide a cheaper and more environmentally sustainable solution to issues of water scarcity and yield losses to pests in Australia’s leading crop.Read moreRead less
Keystone microbes and planktonic guilds in Australia's oceans. This project aims to unveil the ocean’s hidden sentinels, “keystone microbes” that underpin precious ecosystem services, and which can be used to monitor and model changes in ocean function. Marine microbes account for 90 per cent of oceanic biomass and every litre of seawater contains ~20,000 different species, but it is not known which species control ocean health and productivity. This project intends to provide definitive evidenc ....Keystone microbes and planktonic guilds in Australia's oceans. This project aims to unveil the ocean’s hidden sentinels, “keystone microbes” that underpin precious ecosystem services, and which can be used to monitor and model changes in ocean function. Marine microbes account for 90 per cent of oceanic biomass and every litre of seawater contains ~20,000 different species, but it is not known which species control ocean health and productivity. This project intends to provide definitive evidence of these keystones’ cellular level biogeochemical and metabolic capacity. Ultimately, this knowledge is expected to predict the resilience of ocean ecosystems and their response to change. The capacity to predict their dynamics will help provide investment clarity and increase healthy outcomes from activities involving human-ocean interactions such as recreation, food production and tourism.Read moreRead less