Will East Coast Lows change in frequency or intensity in the future? East Coast Lows, the largest storms on the south-east coast of Australia, produce both large benefits and losses for this highly populated region of the country. An urgent national priority exists to understand the driving mechanisms for these events and to quantify how the frequency and intensity of these systems will change due to climate change.
Evaluating the weather in climate models - the relationship of dynamics and rainfall over Australia in current and future climates. Climate change will be experienced by society as a change in the day-to-day weather. This project will investigate the capabilities of modern climate models in simulating the weather with a particular focus on rainfall, and will provide guidance to the use of these models in projections of the future of Australia's climate.
Satellite-Based Radio Occultation for Atmospheric Sounding, Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring in the Australian Region. Global climate change and its associated risks are serious issues because the resultant storms, fires, floods, droughts and cyclones are weather events affecting Australia. However, the predictability of such phenomena is seriously limited due to sparse atmospheric sensor distribution. This project will investigate new space-borne and ground-based radio occultation tec ....Satellite-Based Radio Occultation for Atmospheric Sounding, Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring in the Australian Region. Global climate change and its associated risks are serious issues because the resultant storms, fires, floods, droughts and cyclones are weather events affecting Australia. However, the predictability of such phenomena is seriously limited due to sparse atmospheric sensor distribution. This project will investigate new space-borne and ground-based radio occultation techniques, atmospheric sounding technologies and their fusion to overcome such constraints. This project is dedicated to developing superior national capabilities in anticipating, analysing and investigating critical meteorological threats to Australia. This research will significantly upgrade Australia's meteorological services and contribute to the global community.Read moreRead less
Assessing clouds and rainfall in Australia's community climate model - Towards an improved simulation of Australia's water resources. Climate change is likely to significantly affect Australia's water resources. A well-measured response to this challenge requires reliable projections of future climate using modern Earth System Models. By thoroughly evaluating Australia's community climate model this research will inform Australia's adaptation policy and through subsequent model development it wi ....Assessing clouds and rainfall in Australia's community climate model - Towards an improved simulation of Australia's water resources. Climate change is likely to significantly affect Australia's water resources. A well-measured response to this challenge requires reliable projections of future climate using modern Earth System Models. By thoroughly evaluating Australia's community climate model this research will inform Australia's adaptation policy and through subsequent model development it will contribute to significant improvements in our ability to understand and predict climate change. Through better informing water resource management the research constitutes an important contribution to an environmentally sustainable Australia. Read moreRead less
Towards Distributed Phased Array Radar for High Resolution Weather Monitoring. Several recent reports on climate change by leading international and national bodies forecast that the rate of weather hazards such as storms and wind-shear, and of weather-associated phenomena such as bush fires will increase over the next 40 years. The current technology for monitoring weather events, and effects like wind-shift, which has a serious impact on dangers associated with bush fires, has significant wea ....Towards Distributed Phased Array Radar for High Resolution Weather Monitoring. Several recent reports on climate change by leading international and national bodies forecast that the rate of weather hazards such as storms and wind-shear, and of weather-associated phenomena such as bush fires will increase over the next 40 years. The current technology for monitoring weather events, and effects like wind-shift, which has a serious impact on dangers associated with bush fires, has significant weaknesses. We will deliver considerable improvements in monitoring capability by developing the technology for using a network of small phased array radars. We aim to place monitoring resources where end-user needs are greatest.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Precipitation in wintertime storms across southeast Australia, Tasmania and the Southern Ocean. The pristine conditions and strong wind-shear over the Southern Ocean affect the formation of precipitation in clouds over the region, which is vital to the water supply of southeastern Australia and Tasmania. This project will evaluate and improve the ability to simulate this precipitation, which will lead to better water resource management.
Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how like ....Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how likely they are to exceed key thresholds. It targets important scientific and practical issues such as the joint occurrence of gusts and high rainfall, role of gusts in contributing to dust and other airborne pollutants, impacts of gusts on subsequent storm activity, and gusts in a warming climate.Read moreRead less
How does orography enhance precipitation in Australian wintertime storms? This project aims to employ targeted field observations, numerical simulations and new satellite capabilities to identify the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that enhance and redistribute precipitation across the alpine regions of south eastern Australia and Tasmania. These observations will be used to evaluate operational numerical weather simulations specifically focusing on quantitative precipitation forecasts an ....How does orography enhance precipitation in Australian wintertime storms? This project aims to employ targeted field observations, numerical simulations and new satellite capabilities to identify the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that enhance and redistribute precipitation across the alpine regions of south eastern Australia and Tasmania. These observations will be used to evaluate operational numerical weather simulations specifically focusing on quantitative precipitation forecasts and estimates. The observations will also be used to extend known biases in the national gridded precipitation analysis that are a result of the complex mountain terrain. This identification of the physical processes that enhance and redistribute precipitation over the alpine regions across south east Australia and Tasmania will lead to better precipitation estimates and forecasts and better water management.Read moreRead less