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Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the ....Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the impact of tropical deforestation, land clearing and changes in the southern ocean on atmospheric CO2 will support sustainable development in Australia and our region. The project hence addresses the priority goal 'Responding to climate change and variability` under the National Research Priority 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia`.
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Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat productio ....Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia, identification of regions at greater risk in the future and least likely to be viable in the longer run, and identification of effective adaptive management strategies designed to cope with these risks.Read moreRead less
Tectonic versus biological processes: What controls the long-term global carbon cycle? A major debate in Earth system analysis concerns two competing hypotheses on the driving forces behind dramatic changes in atmospheric CO2 over geological time. One hypothesis considers tectonic/geological processes to be the major driving force. The other argues that it is the competition between plants and animals that drives the long-term CO2 cycle. We propose to test these hypotheses using a novel set of g ....Tectonic versus biological processes: What controls the long-term global carbon cycle? A major debate in Earth system analysis concerns two competing hypotheses on the driving forces behind dramatic changes in atmospheric CO2 over geological time. One hypothesis considers tectonic/geological processes to be the major driving force. The other argues that it is the competition between plants and animals that drives the long-term CO2 cycle. We propose to test these hypotheses using a novel set of global oceanic palaeo-age grids and subduction models for the last 180 million years. This will allow us to appraise key tectonic carbon cycle components such as mantle degassing, seafloor weathering and sediment subduction.Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Integrative assessment of disturbance and land-use change on total greenhouse gas balance and nutrient cycling in savanna ecosystems. Climate change and variability is expected to have an impact on the NT environment and economy. This project will enable NT specific calibrations of climate variability-land use models, such as the National Carbon Accounting System. The NT Government will have access to a high quality database and calibrated models relating to greenhouse gas emissions as a functio ....Integrative assessment of disturbance and land-use change on total greenhouse gas balance and nutrient cycling in savanna ecosystems. Climate change and variability is expected to have an impact on the NT environment and economy. This project will enable NT specific calibrations of climate variability-land use models, such as the National Carbon Accounting System. The NT Government will have access to a high quality database and calibrated models relating to greenhouse gas emissions as a function of land use change. The project will improve estimates and management of GHG and provide a basis for the NT to potentially exploit future carbon-trading initiatives or GHG abatement schemes as fundamental data describing emissions as a function of land use will be available. This is of national significance given the size of the savanna biome in Australia.Read moreRead less
Monitoring and Predicting Near Real Time Ionospheric Activities with Multi-satellite Data. The ionosphere affects the transmission of electromagnetic waves, which can result in disturbance or intermission of radio signals being used for communication, navigation and other microwave systems. This project aims to monitor and predict near real-time ionospheric activities with multi-satellite data. The expected outcomes include: 1) an innovative algorithm to calculate the Total Electron Content from ....Monitoring and Predicting Near Real Time Ionospheric Activities with Multi-satellite Data. The ionosphere affects the transmission of electromagnetic waves, which can result in disturbance or intermission of radio signals being used for communication, navigation and other microwave systems. This project aims to monitor and predict near real-time ionospheric activities with multi-satellite data. The expected outcomes include: 1) an innovative algorithm to calculate the Total Electron Content from multi-satellite data; 2) an automated software package for mapping 3-dimensional ionospheric profile; and 3) an improved understanding of the detailed processes and causes of ionospheric events, that can enhance the space weather services for Australia and the world.Read moreRead less
Satellite-Based Radio Occultation for Atmospheric Sounding, Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring in the Australian Region. Global climate change and its associated risks are serious issues because the resultant storms, fires, floods, droughts and cyclones are weather events affecting Australia. However, the predictability of such phenomena is seriously limited due to sparse atmospheric sensor distribution. This project will investigate new space-borne and ground-based radio occultation tec ....Satellite-Based Radio Occultation for Atmospheric Sounding, Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring in the Australian Region. Global climate change and its associated risks are serious issues because the resultant storms, fires, floods, droughts and cyclones are weather events affecting Australia. However, the predictability of such phenomena is seriously limited due to sparse atmospheric sensor distribution. This project will investigate new space-borne and ground-based radio occultation techniques, atmospheric sounding technologies and their fusion to overcome such constraints. This project is dedicated to developing superior national capabilities in anticipating, analysing and investigating critical meteorological threats to Australia. This research will significantly upgrade Australia's meteorological services and contribute to the global community.Read moreRead less
Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate var ....Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate variation, will act as test cases for the methodology. From this work, the likelihood of policy-relevant events in the future can be evaluated, with a robust assessment of the uncertainty.Read moreRead less