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Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Expenditure needs and drawdown of retirement savings during later life: how important are demographic factors and financial resources? Projections of expenditure patterns in retirement which allow for population heterogeneity will provide individuals with a better appreciation of their income needs and their savings requirements for a comfortable retirement. It will also enable financial institutions to develop products which better target retirees' needs over the course of retirement, and in ad ....Expenditure needs and drawdown of retirement savings during later life: how important are demographic factors and financial resources? Projections of expenditure patterns in retirement which allow for population heterogeneity will provide individuals with a better appreciation of their income needs and their savings requirements for a comfortable retirement. It will also enable financial institutions to develop products which better target retirees' needs over the course of retirement, and in addition it will enable improved assessment of aspects of Government income support policy. Specifically, understanding the complex interactions between private and public pensions, and concession card receipt upon expenditure behaviour, will enable more accurate costings of the public support of elderly families as Australia's population ages. Read moreRead less
Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research w ....Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research will facilitate the design of policies and regulations by regulatory authorities that need to evaluate new financial products, their associated risks and their impacts on the financial markets.Read moreRead less
Bayesian Inference for Flexible Parametric Multivariate Econometric Modelling. The anticipated outcomes include the development of enhanced multivariate econometric models and innovative computationally intensive methods for their estimation. These models are used in numerous and diverse applications which are data-intensive and where more complete models will greatly enhance data-based decision-making. Results include improved information use in the wholesale electricity markets, in financial m ....Bayesian Inference for Flexible Parametric Multivariate Econometric Modelling. The anticipated outcomes include the development of enhanced multivariate econometric models and innovative computationally intensive methods for their estimation. These models are used in numerous and diverse applications which are data-intensive and where more complete models will greatly enhance data-based decision-making. Results include improved information use in the wholesale electricity markets, in financial market investment decision-making and for the assessment of the impact of internet advertising.Read moreRead less
Stochastic Methods for Dynamic Risk Management. In today's environment of intense competitive pressures, volatile economic conditions, rising bankruptcies, and increasing levels of consumer and commercial debt, an organization's ability to effectively monitor and manage its credit risk can mean the difference between success and survival. The improvement of dynamic risk management systems is also an essential part of the new regulatory Capital Adequacy Proposal Basel II in which risk-sensitive c ....Stochastic Methods for Dynamic Risk Management. In today's environment of intense competitive pressures, volatile economic conditions, rising bankruptcies, and increasing levels of consumer and commercial debt, an organization's ability to effectively monitor and manage its credit risk can mean the difference between success and survival. The improvement of dynamic risk management systems is also an essential part of the new regulatory Capital Adequacy Proposal Basel II in which risk-sensitive capital requirements for credit portfolios and internal models of credit risk are advocated. The goal of the project is to develop novel stochastic methods for managing of credit risk and to bring theoretical innovations developed within the project to practical implementations. Read moreRead less
Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than obse ....Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than observed. This approach has the immense advantage of being able to reflect contemporary borrowing patterns in the model, rather than relying on historic trends.
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Multifractal models in finance via the crossing tree. High level mathematical modelling is an established part of the modern finance industry, in particular the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is now an indispensable financial tool.
To remain competitive the Australian financial sector needs to keep up with developments in mathematical finance, which is only possible if the Australian academic community remains active in the field.
The work on multifractal modelling proposed here is innov ....Multifractal models in finance via the crossing tree. High level mathematical modelling is an established part of the modern finance industry, in particular the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is now an indispensable financial tool.
To remain competitive the Australian financial sector needs to keep up with developments in mathematical finance, which is only possible if the Australian academic community remains active in the field.
The work on multifractal modelling proposed here is innovative both in its theoretical aspects and its applied methodology, and will ensure that Australian research remains at the cutting edge of this highly competitive and fast moving field.Read moreRead less
Financial Risk Processes: Stochastic and Statistical Models and their Applications. On the one hand, the misuse of complex financial instruments has contributed to recent major disasters in the Australian financial and insurance industries; on the other hand, great benefits can be obtained by correct use of these kinds of instruments, to share risk between markets and segments of markets. The overall research effort in Australia in these areas is relatively small. This project will target the de ....Financial Risk Processes: Stochastic and Statistical Models and their Applications. On the one hand, the misuse of complex financial instruments has contributed to recent major disasters in the Australian financial and insurance industries; on the other hand, great benefits can be obtained by correct use of these kinds of instruments, to share risk between markets and segments of markets. The overall research effort in Australia in these areas is relatively small. This project will target the development of cutting edge technologies underlying the use of financial derivatives, not presently studied in this country or elsewhere, by bringing together a variety of top level international researchers in an integrated effort to lift the Australian understanding and application of this methodology.Read moreRead less
New Stochastic Processes with Applications in Finance. This project investigates the properties and the use of two new families of models with applications in Finance, and beyond. It will contribute to the development of fundamental research in mathematics and its applications. The project will produce more realistic financial models that will benefit researchers in this field. This will in turn have a flow on effect to benefit the wider community. The project will provide for postgraduate train ....New Stochastic Processes with Applications in Finance. This project investigates the properties and the use of two new families of models with applications in Finance, and beyond. It will contribute to the development of fundamental research in mathematics and its applications. The project will produce more realistic financial models that will benefit researchers in this field. This will in turn have a flow on effect to benefit the wider community. The project will provide for postgraduate training and international scientific exchange. Overall, the project will strengthen Australia's standing at the forefront of fundamental and applied research.Read moreRead less
Stochastic Analysis with a View to Applications in Financial Risk Processes. Recent decades have seen explosive growth in applications of probability theory and statistics to the modelling of risk in finance and insurance. An intensive theoretical investigation into passage time and other problems for Levy and other continuous time processes will be applied to financial risk analyses. Related investigations will involve perpetuities and stochastic volatility models for price series. Outcomes ....Stochastic Analysis with a View to Applications in Financial Risk Processes. Recent decades have seen explosive growth in applications of probability theory and statistics to the modelling of risk in finance and insurance. An intensive theoretical investigation into passage time and other problems for Levy and other continuous time processes will be applied to financial risk analyses. Related investigations will involve perpetuities and stochastic volatility models for price series. Outcomes will include the development of new theory in probability and statistics, the initiation and reinforcement of collaborative ties with major international research figures, and the fostering of contacts with the finance industry.Read moreRead less