Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually updat ....Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually update estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes of interest such as the winner of the match and the margin of victory. The project will assist Champion in their strategic aim to provide an on line form guide.Read moreRead less
Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable mode ....Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable modelled small-area estimates to be released without compromising confidentiality. The expected outcomes include new statistical knowledge and new insights into cancer. The results will benefit the many disciplines, managers and policy makers that make decisions based on geographic data mapped over space and time. Read moreRead less
Intruder alert! detecting and classifying events in noisy time series. This project aims to address the mathematical challenges in automated early detection and classification of intrusion events in noisy time series generated from perimeter security systems. The project expects to develop robust methods to detect intrusion events under different operating environments while ignoring nuisance events. The project will boost the global competitiveness of the Australian security industry, and enabl ....Intruder alert! detecting and classifying events in noisy time series. This project aims to address the mathematical challenges in automated early detection and classification of intrusion events in noisy time series generated from perimeter security systems. The project expects to develop robust methods to detect intrusion events under different operating environments while ignoring nuisance events. The project will boost the global competitiveness of the Australian security industry, and enable improved event detection and classification in noisy time series to the benefit of many critical application areas beyond national security.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Increasing student retention rates in Victorian rural and metropolitan areas through engaging and empowering students with learning difficulties. Learning difficulties (LD), which affect a significant population, have a neurological cause and are a life-long phenomenon. Students with LD are at increased risk of negative outcomes including school dropout, unemployment and emotional difficulties. This project examines the prevalence of LD in students of average to above average ability and its r ....Increasing student retention rates in Victorian rural and metropolitan areas through engaging and empowering students with learning difficulties. Learning difficulties (LD), which affect a significant population, have a neurological cause and are a life-long phenomenon. Students with LD are at increased risk of negative outcomes including school dropout, unemployment and emotional difficulties. This project examines the prevalence of LD in students of average to above average ability and its relationship to at-risk behaviours. It also examines the impact of expanding teacher understanding of LD and use of pedagogy that engages and empowers students through the acquisition of compensatory skills. This project goes beyond traditional literacy and numeracy support by focussing on sense of belonging and personal control as key determinants for improving outcomes for students with LD.Read moreRead less
Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Expenditure needs and drawdown of retirement savings during later life: how important are demographic factors and financial resources? Projections of expenditure patterns in retirement which allow for population heterogeneity will provide individuals with a better appreciation of their income needs and their savings requirements for a comfortable retirement. It will also enable financial institutions to develop products which better target retirees' needs over the course of retirement, and in ad ....Expenditure needs and drawdown of retirement savings during later life: how important are demographic factors and financial resources? Projections of expenditure patterns in retirement which allow for population heterogeneity will provide individuals with a better appreciation of their income needs and their savings requirements for a comfortable retirement. It will also enable financial institutions to develop products which better target retirees' needs over the course of retirement, and in addition it will enable improved assessment of aspects of Government income support policy. Specifically, understanding the complex interactions between private and public pensions, and concession card receipt upon expenditure behaviour, will enable more accurate costings of the public support of elderly families as Australia's population ages. Read moreRead less
Rating and ranking sports players and teams using minimum message length. All sorts of games and sports could use better systems for rating and ranking teams. This is as true in sports-mad Australia as any other country. Improved and more accessible rating systems across a variety of activities should encourage the general public to take a greater interest in the mathematics, statistics, information theory and machine learning behind the systems. With Cadability as our Australia-based interna ....Rating and ranking sports players and teams using minimum message length. All sorts of games and sports could use better systems for rating and ranking teams. This is as true in sports-mad Australia as any other country. Improved and more accessible rating systems across a variety of activities should encourage the general public to take a greater interest in the mathematics, statistics, information theory and machine learning behind the systems. With Cadability as our Australia-based international industry partner, the global use of these systems will be to Australia's economic advantage. Having a more accurate rating system which is wider-reaching both in the number of sports and games and the number of participants per sport and game should also encourage greater participation from the general public.Read moreRead less
Modelling claim dependencies for the general insurance industry with economic capital in view: an innovative approach with stochastic processes. This project will develop and enhance multi-dimensional models used to describe and assess the risks borne by general insurers. These innovative methods, which will be directly applicable by the industry, will strengthen the efficiency and the safety of the Australian economy.
Improving Productivity and Efficiency of Australian Airports – A Real Time Analytics and Statistical Approach. Aviation is a major economic driver both within Australia and overseas, but the aviation industry faces growing challenges from the increase in passengers and changing regulations. To meet these challenges, airports, airlines, government agencies and others need to maximise their efficiency and productivity; however, complex dependencies and differing operational objectives complicate t ....Improving Productivity and Efficiency of Australian Airports – A Real Time Analytics and Statistical Approach. Aviation is a major economic driver both within Australia and overseas, but the aviation industry faces growing challenges from the increase in passengers and changing regulations. To meet these challenges, airports, airlines, government agencies and others need to maximise their efficiency and productivity; however, complex dependencies and differing operational objectives complicate this task. This project aims to develop a real-time, whole-of-system operational performance framework that can help operators in finding and evaluating solutions to maximise throughput, reduce wait times and mitigate flow-on effects. Innovative new video analytic and Bayesian Network based tools are integrated to address the challenges of adaptability and uncertainty.Read moreRead less