New methods for small group analysis from sample surveys. National and state averages of statistics on issues such as unemployment, salinity, drought impact, and health often hide large differences between population sub-groups and between small areas. This local variation needs to be understood so that effective policies can be developed and carried out efficiently and their impact monitored. This project will provide, for the first time, robust and efficient methods for providing information o ....New methods for small group analysis from sample surveys. National and state averages of statistics on issues such as unemployment, salinity, drought impact, and health often hide large differences between population sub-groups and between small areas. This local variation needs to be understood so that effective policies can be developed and carried out efficiently and their impact monitored. This project will provide, for the first time, robust and efficient methods for providing information on these variations using data from large-scale national and state surveys. This will lead to significant improvements in the data available for small population groups and small areas, allowing better targeting of policies aimed at addressing local differences.Read moreRead less
Handling Missing Data in Complex Household Surveys. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has an extensive program of household surveys that is a key source of information on the social and economic conditions of the population. They provide statistics and data on a large range of social and economic topics, such as health, education, the labour force, income and expenditure. Analysis of household survey data by a variety of organisations underpins policy development and evaluation and the e ....Handling Missing Data in Complex Household Surveys. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has an extensive program of household surveys that is a key source of information on the social and economic conditions of the population. They provide statistics and data on a large range of social and economic topics, such as health, education, the labour force, income and expenditure. Analysis of household survey data by a variety of organisations underpins policy development and evaluation and the expenditure of billions of dollars. This project will substantially improve the cost-efficiency and reliability of Australian household survey data, by creating new approaches for handling missing data that deal with the realities of typical household surveys.Read moreRead less
Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there ....Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there a major changes to existing series, improving the analysis of such series and the decisions based on them.Read moreRead less
How effective are environmental flows? Novel approaches for monitoring and assessing ecological responses to large-scale flow alteration. Australia has begun a multi-billion dollar program to return water to stressed rivers as environmental flows. However, during times of unprecedented water scarcity, such an investment in the environment can be controversial because the ecological benefits of released water are mostly poorly understood. This project will demonstrate the effectiveness of environ ....How effective are environmental flows? Novel approaches for monitoring and assessing ecological responses to large-scale flow alteration. Australia has begun a multi-billion dollar program to return water to stressed rivers as environmental flows. However, during times of unprecedented water scarcity, such an investment in the environment can be controversial because the ecological benefits of released water are mostly poorly understood. This project will demonstrate the effectiveness of environmental flows, and promote greater understanding of the links between flow patterns and river health. The project will build upon existing knowledge to create a sound framework for planning, monitoring, and evaluation of environmental watering decisions across regional Australia, greatly improving our ability to sustainably manage rivers into the future.Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The Future of Financial Regulation: Enhancing integrity through design. The global financial crisis and the attendant collapse of major financial institutions have called into question the efficacy of financial regulation and the standards of conduct of the key actors in the financial services sectors and financial markets. Ethical conduct is fundamental to the integrity of Australia's financial services sector and financial markets. This project will make a valuable and innovative contribution ....The Future of Financial Regulation: Enhancing integrity through design. The global financial crisis and the attendant collapse of major financial institutions have called into question the efficacy of financial regulation and the standards of conduct of the key actors in the financial services sectors and financial markets. Ethical conduct is fundamental to the integrity of Australia's financial services sector and financial markets. This project will make a valuable and innovative contribution to the national priority goal of strengthening Australia's social and economic fabric by assisting market actors fulfil their professional roles in an ethical manner. By so doing it accords with the national priority goals of promoting an innovation culture and economy, and safeguarding Australia.Read moreRead less
Policy Modelling for Ageing in Emerging Economies: The Case of Indonesia. This project, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Indonesian Planning Authority, will support major social and economic policy development in a rapidly ageing region. It will break new ground by developing a cutting-edge economic policy model reflecting salient features of ageing in emerging economies, taking into account the wider implications for education, employment, formalisation, growth, and retirement. It w ....Policy Modelling for Ageing in Emerging Economies: The Case of Indonesia. This project, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Indonesian Planning Authority, will support major social and economic policy development in a rapidly ageing region. It will break new ground by developing a cutting-edge economic policy model reflecting salient features of ageing in emerging economies, taking into account the wider implications for education, employment, formalisation, growth, and retirement. It will bring the armoury of policy analysis instruments available to these countries up to the standard now enjoyed by the developed world. Indonesia, on the brink of major pension reform, will be used as a test bed. Data sets will be developed to allow the model structure to be applied to other emerging economies in Asia. Read moreRead less
Applying behavioural insights to the tax system in Australia. Applying behavioural insights to the tax system in Australia. This project aims to improve compliance and payment in the Australian tax system. It aims to tackle debts of individuals and businesses, the most challenging aspect of tax systems, by applying behavioural insights to design innovative payment interventions and conducting rigorous randomised controlled trials to evaluate their effects. An empirical analysis will account for ....Applying behavioural insights to the tax system in Australia. Applying behavioural insights to the tax system in Australia. This project aims to improve compliance and payment in the Australian tax system. It aims to tackle debts of individuals and businesses, the most challenging aspect of tax systems, by applying behavioural insights to design innovative payment interventions and conducting rigorous randomised controlled trials to evaluate their effects. An empirical analysis will account for heterogeneity in treatment responses, and the findings will be combined with a study of regulatory and administrative processes to support the ultimate goal of a legitimate, fair, cost-effective and responsive tax system.Read moreRead less
Using Mathematics to Maximize the Efficiency of Shared Infrastructure in Australia's Coal Export Supply Chain. Port Waratah Coal Services operates the world's largest coal export terminal, servicing about 14 coal mining companies in the Hunter Valley, NSW. It is responsible for around $15 billion in annual export income for Australia. The coal supply chain is a complex operation, hampered by bottlenecks in critical shared infrastructure. Such limitations are estimated to cost Australia about $2 ....Using Mathematics to Maximize the Efficiency of Shared Infrastructure in Australia's Coal Export Supply Chain. Port Waratah Coal Services operates the world's largest coal export terminal, servicing about 14 coal mining companies in the Hunter Valley, NSW. It is responsible for around $15 billion in annual export income for Australia. The coal supply chain is a complex operation, hampered by bottlenecks in critical shared infrastructure. Such limitations are estimated to cost Australia about $2 billion pa in lost sales. This project will support the design of new infrastructure and processes to ensure an efficient supply chain. The new science resulting will benefit other coal operations in Australia, and potentially other bulk goods supply chains.Read moreRead less