Improving Choice Models: Multiple Goal Pursuit and Multi-Stage Decision Processes. This project aims to develop new econometric models of choice behaviour that recognise individuals adopt “how to decide” strategies when choosing between alternatives. Existing models simplistically assume that people evaluate all goods and choose the best of them, when in fact they ignore some goods, select what information is relevant, pursue multiple goals, and otherwise deviate from the assumptions commonly ma ....Improving Choice Models: Multiple Goal Pursuit and Multi-Stage Decision Processes. This project aims to develop new econometric models of choice behaviour that recognise individuals adopt “how to decide” strategies when choosing between alternatives. Existing models simplistically assume that people evaluate all goods and choose the best of them, when in fact they ignore some goods, select what information is relevant, pursue multiple goals, and otherwise deviate from the assumptions commonly made in econometric models. Filling in this significant gap in the choice modelling literature constitutes a significant contribution to improving our understanding of human decision making and policy analysis in every area of human endeavour.Read moreRead less
Accounting for preference seperability in stated choice experiments. This project aims to unite three separate streams of applied economic research into a single framework in order to develop a micro-economically consistent framework for demand forecasting and analysis. Forecasting demand to improve product performance or policy impacts requires realistic representations of how humans actually make choices. Combining theories of preference separability with recent developments in both activity a ....Accounting for preference seperability in stated choice experiments. This project aims to unite three separate streams of applied economic research into a single framework in order to develop a micro-economically consistent framework for demand forecasting and analysis. Forecasting demand to improve product performance or policy impacts requires realistic representations of how humans actually make choices. Combining theories of preference separability with recent developments in both activity and time use modelling and stated choice techniques, the project plans to develop new insights into consumer equilibrium as well as new econometric methods to test for the assumption of preference separability. Project outcomes would lead to an improved understanding of consumer behaviour as well as demand forecasting, with benefits to studies involving the need for benefit cost comparisons.Read moreRead less
Heuristic-based behavioural models with an application to macroeconomics. This project will develop behavioural micro-foundations for economic models with heterogeneous agents. In these models the interaction of decision rules used by agents leads to complex phenomena at the aggregate level, for example, the cycles of bubbles and crashes. The agents switch between decision rules on the basis of past performance. However, a broad range of specifications of the rules and switching mechanisms has l ....Heuristic-based behavioural models with an application to macroeconomics. This project will develop behavioural micro-foundations for economic models with heterogeneous agents. In these models the interaction of decision rules used by agents leads to complex phenomena at the aggregate level, for example, the cycles of bubbles and crashes. The agents switch between decision rules on the basis of past performance. However, a broad range of specifications of the rules and switching mechanisms has led to many degrees of freedom in modelling. In this project, laboratory experiments with paid human subjects will be used to discipline this modelling. The resulting models will improve macroeconomic and financial policy responses to volatile market conditions.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120101426
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Understanding industrialisation, entrepreneurship, and technology adoption in emerging economies: new evidence from historical Japanese firms. Japan's pre-war industrialisation is widely used as a model by emerging economies, despite a lack of detailed data. This project provides a new firm-level dataset from hitherto unused archives, which allows empirical testing of theories about entrepreneurial activity, technology adoption, financial access, and other determinants of economic growth.
Information design, cognitive abilities and macro-economic stability. This project aims to improve our understanding of individual decision making in financial markets and its implications for macro-economic stability. Using laboratory and internet experiments, models of adaptive choice behaviour will be developed and validated. The project will help to gain insight into how past information, and the way it is presented, affects investment decisions, which individual characteristics matter for d ....Information design, cognitive abilities and macro-economic stability. This project aims to improve our understanding of individual decision making in financial markets and its implications for macro-economic stability. Using laboratory and internet experiments, models of adaptive choice behaviour will be developed and validated. The project will help to gain insight into how past information, and the way it is presented, affects investment decisions, which individual characteristics matter for decisions, and how this behaviour translates into the evolution of aggregate macro-economic variables. The expected outcomes of the project will have the potential to improve the design of tools for better individual financial decision making, to stabilize volatile markets and to enhance economic welfare.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100653
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$399,350.00
Summary
Tools of racial control: an economic analysis of laws vs. violence. This project aims to develop and empirically test a theory of racial violence, which predicts that as racist laws are removed, racial violence increases. To test this hypothesis, I will construct a new, comprehensive dataset of lynchings and racist legislation in post-Civil War America, where newly freed blacks gained significant freedoms, but also experienced widespread violence. The empirical analysis proposes to identify a no ....Tools of racial control: an economic analysis of laws vs. violence. This project aims to develop and empirically test a theory of racial violence, which predicts that as racist laws are removed, racial violence increases. To test this hypothesis, I will construct a new, comprehensive dataset of lynchings and racist legislation in post-Civil War America, where newly freed blacks gained significant freedoms, but also experienced widespread violence. The empirical analysis proposes to identify a novel mechanism for racial violence in this context: a desire for racial control in areas that incurred shocks to the white sex ratio during the Civil War and distorted marriage markets thereafter. The findings aim to significantly contribute to our understanding of racial violence in both the US and Australia today.Read moreRead less
Adaptive economic management of Australia's urban water. This project responds to the so-called 'wicked problem' of ensuring an adequate supply of water to urban consumers at the lowest price even during long-term droughts. The project will generate, for the first time in the world, an integrated, dynamic, and adaptive supply and demand model to manage urban water optimally over time.
Market Design for the Reallocation of Land. This fellowship uses laboratory and lab-in-the-field experiments to explores how market design can be used to develop combinatorial exchanges that allow participants to exchange packages of land. Allowing for package bids can facilitate trade in situations where owning one piece of land increases the value of adjacent land and where assembling contiguous pieces of land is important. Combinatorial exchanges have the potential to increase the productivit ....Market Design for the Reallocation of Land. This fellowship uses laboratory and lab-in-the-field experiments to explores how market design can be used to develop combinatorial exchanges that allow participants to exchange packages of land. Allowing for package bids can facilitate trade in situations where owning one piece of land increases the value of adjacent land and where assembling contiguous pieces of land is important. Combinatorial exchanges have the potential to increase the productivity of agriculture land in both Australia and developing countries, encourage urban redevelopment, and help the government secure land for infrastructure and environmental protection in a cost-effective way.Read moreRead less
Choice foundations: Diagnostic tools for individual-level model development. This project aims to improve policy making in areas such as transport, environment and health, by better representation of how people make decisions. An interdisciplinary team of economists and psychologists will build on new mathematical and statistical tools to test for adherence to choice axioms that underlie observed choice behaviour. The project will produce a set of computerized statistical tools to implement the ....Choice foundations: Diagnostic tools for individual-level model development. This project aims to improve policy making in areas such as transport, environment and health, by better representation of how people make decisions. An interdisciplinary team of economists and psychologists will build on new mathematical and statistical tools to test for adherence to choice axioms that underlie observed choice behaviour. The project will produce a set of computerized statistical tools to implement the testing of choice axioms using Bayesian methods with the capacity to improve a wide array of applied economics work at the national and international levels.Read moreRead less
The rate of time preference in choice experiments: A systematic re-analysis. This project intends to re-analyse data from over 20 years of past research to understand when and why people sometimes make short-sighted choices. Time preference is a core concept in both theoretical and applied economics and a key input in public policy, yet empirical understanding of it is poor. Almost all important decisions of households, businesses and government involve benefits and costs that unfold over time. ....The rate of time preference in choice experiments: A systematic re-analysis. This project intends to re-analyse data from over 20 years of past research to understand when and why people sometimes make short-sighted choices. Time preference is a core concept in both theoretical and applied economics and a key input in public policy, yet empirical understanding of it is poor. Almost all important decisions of households, businesses and government involve benefits and costs that unfold over time. Many economists have used decision-making experiments to study how people value the future and make trade-offs over time, but these have not reached any clear consensus. This project plans to systematically re-analyse primary data using state-of-the-art estimation techniques to generate new estimates of the discount rate for each study. These will then be analysed in a meta-regression analysis to identify the factors that cause discount rates to vary between studies.Read moreRead less