An investigation of illicit tobacco use - its prevalence, economic impact and the motivations and perceptions of consumers. Black market tobacco costs the Australian government at least $450 million in lost taxes per annum. Little is known about the prevalence and economics of illicit tobacco use, or the motivations, attitudes and perceptions of consumers. Using a national telephone survey of licit and illicit tobacco consumers, we will investigate their economic thresholds, decision-making pr ....An investigation of illicit tobacco use - its prevalence, economic impact and the motivations and perceptions of consumers. Black market tobacco costs the Australian government at least $450 million in lost taxes per annum. Little is known about the prevalence and economics of illicit tobacco use, or the motivations, attitudes and perceptions of consumers. Using a national telephone survey of licit and illicit tobacco consumers, we will investigate their economic thresholds, decision-making processes, and perceptions of health effects. Our work will lead to improved supply and demand reduction measures for illicit tobacco, and enable development of appropriately targeted health promotion strategies, generating enduring benefit to Australia's economy and public health. Read moreRead less
The structure and dynamics of social contact for human disease transmission models. The methodological advances of this project will enable new insights in important social research. They will not only add significantly to national capacity in the modelling of complex social systems but they will also yield practical scientific outcomes in a significant policy domain in Australia and overseas. In Australia, response to diseases such as HIV, HCV and TB need new approaches, and the threat of pan ....The structure and dynamics of social contact for human disease transmission models. The methodological advances of this project will enable new insights in important social research. They will not only add significantly to national capacity in the modelling of complex social systems but they will also yield practical scientific outcomes in a significant policy domain in Australia and overseas. In Australia, response to diseases such as HIV, HCV and TB need new approaches, and the threat of pandemic influenza is significant. Read moreRead less
Modelling and estimation techniques for the transmission and control of Tuberculosis with new and existing vaccines. Most Tuberculosis in Australia is seen in foreign-born people. Australia has an important role in providing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in Tuberculosis control, which will have flow-on benefits to TB control in this country. Using mathematical models, this project will assess the use of vaccines for Tuberculosis in the developing world. Rising levels of extremely drug r ....Modelling and estimation techniques for the transmission and control of Tuberculosis with new and existing vaccines. Most Tuberculosis in Australia is seen in foreign-born people. Australia has an important role in providing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in Tuberculosis control, which will have flow-on benefits to TB control in this country. Using mathematical models, this project will assess the use of vaccines for Tuberculosis in the developing world. Rising levels of extremely drug resistant infections make this a timely and important study with significant policy implications, both externally and in the Australian context. Read moreRead less
Stochastic methods for studying models of infection and abundance. The outcomes of this project will have immense benefit to Australia. They impact upon two areas of national importance, namely ensuring an environmentally sustainable Australia, and safeguarding Australia. In particular, the project will provide models, methodology and optimal strategies for sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity, for protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests, and for protecting Australia from te ....Stochastic methods for studying models of infection and abundance. The outcomes of this project will have immense benefit to Australia. They impact upon two areas of national importance, namely ensuring an environmentally sustainable Australia, and safeguarding Australia. In particular, the project will provide models, methodology and optimal strategies for sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity, for protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests, and for protecting Australia from terrorism and crime. Special focus will be given to the control of invasive species, the control of emerging infections, and the optimal allocation of resources. The current risks posed by invasive diseases and pests, and the alarming rate of destruction of biodiversity, warrant urgent funding of this project.Read moreRead less
Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns. Mathematical modelling of data on travellers traversing Australia's borders and their contact patterns can be used to understand the pathways by which infectious diseases enter and spread in Australia. Currently available social contact data which informs models are inadequate and outdated. Gathering new data relevant to modern society will help ....Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns. Mathematical modelling of data on travellers traversing Australia's borders and their contact patterns can be used to understand the pathways by which infectious diseases enter and spread in Australia. Currently available social contact data which informs models are inadequate and outdated. Gathering new data relevant to modern society will help control future infectious disease threats to our society. Our aim is to collect detailed, unique data on demography, behavioural and social patterns of travellers and residents, and use this to develop mathematical models to evaluate effective control measures for emerging infections in Australia. This study will make a unique contribution to national disease control policy.Read moreRead less
Advanced mathematical models and methods for a randomly-varying world. This project aims to develop advanced stochastic models and novel techniques, to analytically obtain performance measures and to efficiently simulate the time evolution. This project also plans to apply new models and methods to address important problems in ecology and epidemiology. The outputs of this project will advance knowledge in mathematics as well as in the intended application areas, including ultimately in improved ....Advanced mathematical models and methods for a randomly-varying world. This project aims to develop advanced stochastic models and novel techniques, to analytically obtain performance measures and to efficiently simulate the time evolution. This project also plans to apply new models and methods to address important problems in ecology and epidemiology. The outputs of this project will advance knowledge in mathematics as well as in the intended application areas, including ultimately in improved understanding, modelling, and tracking of the spread of diseases.Read moreRead less
Developing a disability policy model to target the prevention or reduction of limitations on functioning and wellbeing. With the ageing of Australian society the challenge for public health is shifting from preventing death and disease onset to supporting healthy and productive ageing. The disability policy model will allow cost-effective targeting of interventions to reduce or prevent onset of disability or reduce its severity particularly among older Australians.
New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.