Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Intruder alert! detecting and classifying events in noisy time series. This project aims to address the mathematical challenges in automated early detection and classification of intrusion events in noisy time series generated from perimeter security systems. The project expects to develop robust methods to detect intrusion events under different operating environments while ignoring nuisance events. The project will boost the global competitiveness of the Australian security industry, and enabl ....Intruder alert! detecting and classifying events in noisy time series. This project aims to address the mathematical challenges in automated early detection and classification of intrusion events in noisy time series generated from perimeter security systems. The project expects to develop robust methods to detect intrusion events under different operating environments while ignoring nuisance events. The project will boost the global competitiveness of the Australian security industry, and enable improved event detection and classification in noisy time series to the benefit of many critical application areas beyond national security.Read moreRead less
Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually updat ....Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually update estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes of interest such as the winner of the match and the margin of victory. The project will assist Champion in their strategic aim to provide an on line form guide.Read moreRead less
Theory and Applications of Computer-Intensive Statistical Methods. The availability of powerful computing equipment has had a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. It has motivated development of novel approaches to data analysis, whose conception
and appreciation, even their application, often demand sophisticated and complex theoretical methods. In this context, the project will develop new approaches to solving non-standard statistical problems. These techniques will eithe ....Theory and Applications of Computer-Intensive Statistical Methods. The availability of powerful computing equipment has had a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. It has motivated development of novel approaches to data analysis, whose conception
and appreciation, even their application, often demand sophisticated and complex theoretical methods. In this context, the project will develop new approaches to solving non-standard statistical problems. These techniques will either have direct application to solving practical problems of national or community concern, or provide a better understanding of the nature of such problems.Read moreRead less
Theory and application of computer-intensive, nonparametric statistical methods. The availability of increasingly powerful computing equipment continues to have a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. These developments, combined with new technologies for generating data, are driving substantial changes in statistics, ranging from the types of problems being solved to the sorts of methods used to solve them. Both the problems and their solutions are of substantial national and c ....Theory and application of computer-intensive, nonparametric statistical methods. The availability of increasingly powerful computing equipment continues to have a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. These developments, combined with new technologies for generating data, are driving substantial changes in statistics, ranging from the types of problems being solved to the sorts of methods used to solve them. Both the problems and their solutions are of substantial national and community benefit. They will be the subject of high-level research supported by this proposal. Read moreRead less
Nonparametric Statistical Methods -- New Directions, Theory and Applications. The research program will take Australia to the forefront of contemporary work in nonparametric statistics, and assist greatly in the training of a new generation of Australian statistical scientists. It will contribute significantly to restoring the health of this strategically important field, in Australian universities and in the nation more generally. The projects outlined in the proposal address problems arising ....Nonparametric Statistical Methods -- New Directions, Theory and Applications. The research program will take Australia to the forefront of contemporary work in nonparametric statistics, and assist greatly in the training of a new generation of Australian statistical scientists. It will contribute significantly to restoring the health of this strategically important field, in Australian universities and in the nation more generally. The projects outlined in the proposal address problems arising in astronomy, economics, engineering, defence, health and image analysis, but the potential areas of impact are broader even than this. This diversity illustrates the extraordinary potential, and strategic significance, of statistics to Australia. Read moreRead less
Machine learning in adversarial environments. Machine learning underpins the technologies driving the economies of both Silicon Valley and Wall Street, from web search and ad placement, to stock predictions and efforts in fighting cybercrime. This project aims to answer the question: How can machines learn from data when contributors act maliciously for personal gain?
Statistical Analysis of Some Partially Observed Processes Arising in Ecological Research. The expected outcomes of this project are the provision of statistical methods to draw important information from samples from wild animal populations and the training of researchers to conduct high quality statistical ecological research. The national benefit lies on the availability of the developed techniques and researchers from this project to the society for finding better ways of managing Australia's ....Statistical Analysis of Some Partially Observed Processes Arising in Ecological Research. The expected outcomes of this project are the provision of statistical methods to draw important information from samples from wild animal populations and the training of researchers to conduct high quality statistical ecological research. The national benefit lies on the availability of the developed techniques and researchers from this project to the society for finding better ways of managing Australia's ecological systems and making Australia environmentally sustainable.Read moreRead less
Rethinking the Data-driven Discovery of Rare Phenomena. This project will investigate novel technologies for the data-driven discovery of rare phenomena. Scientific disciplines are increasingly able to generate large amounts of data relevant to key discoveries such as novel photovoltaic materials or explanations of brain seizures. However, these discoveries typically correspond to extremely rare phenomena in high dimensional spaces, which current data science methods are unable to detect. The pr ....Rethinking the Data-driven Discovery of Rare Phenomena. This project will investigate novel technologies for the data-driven discovery of rare phenomena. Scientific disciplines are increasingly able to generate large amounts of data relevant to key discoveries such as novel photovoltaic materials or explanations of brain seizures. However, these discoveries typically correspond to extremely rare phenomena in high dimensional spaces, which current data science methods are unable to detect. The project will fill this void and yield novel methods, publications, and open source software for the data-driven discovery or rare phenomena. Thus, it will expand the capabilities of data science, providing better use of the massive data collections accumulating across science, government, and industry.Read moreRead less
Theory and applications of Bayesian and likelihood analyses for finite mixture, random effect and multinomial models. The expected outcomes of the project are: to establish the scientific
value of modern Bayesian methods for statistical inference in a wider
range of applications than previously available, to contribute to the greater unification of the current theories of statistical inference which are to some extent in conflict, and to provide a set of Bayesian analytic tools implemented in ....Theory and applications of Bayesian and likelihood analyses for finite mixture, random effect and multinomial models. The expected outcomes of the project are: to establish the scientific
value of modern Bayesian methods for statistical inference in a wider
range of applications than previously available, to contribute to the greater unification of the current theories of statistical inference which are to some extent in conflict, and to provide a set of Bayesian analytic tools implemented in widely available, free and open-source statistical software.
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