Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change ....Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change during a period of rapid change. This is of great national and community benefit in that it will lead to a fuller understanding of the polar regions, and present a broader context in which precipitation and other changes over southern Australia can be understood.Read moreRead less
Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be exte ....Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be extended to results from a simulation of future climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The extent to which extreme cyclone and precipitation events become more numerous in a warmer world will be determined and the links between them established.Read moreRead less
Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled ....Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled in this project will allow reliable assessments of how frontal systems have changed, and may be expected to change in the next century. Great community benefit will derive from understanding how these are linked with changes in Australian weather and climate extremes, and to decreases in rainfall over southern Australia in recent decades.Read moreRead less
Fire Scar Impacts on Surface Heat and Moisture Fluxes in Australia's Tropical Savanna and Feedbacks to Local and Regional Climate. Fire burns as much as 250,000 km2 of northern Australia every year, mostly tropical savanna land. The atmospheric impacts of burning extend beyond the direct emissions of aerosol and trace gases to include the effects of land surface alteration on atmospheric circulation. Using observation and modelling, this study examines the modification of surface heat and mois ....Fire Scar Impacts on Surface Heat and Moisture Fluxes in Australia's Tropical Savanna and Feedbacks to Local and Regional Climate. Fire burns as much as 250,000 km2 of northern Australia every year, mostly tropical savanna land. The atmospheric impacts of burning extend beyond the direct emissions of aerosol and trace gases to include the effects of land surface alteration on atmospheric circulation. Using observation and modelling, this study examines the modification of surface heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere caused by fire scars, along with the impact of such changes on atmospheric motion and precipitation at a range of scales. This unique work is of fundamental scientific interest and significance for current and future management of this important national resource.Read moreRead less
Indigenous Weather: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander's perspectives on weather. This project aims to collect, synthesise and interpret Indigenous Australian knowledge on weather patterns, seasonal variations, environmental and climatic change. The development of an Indigenous weather knowledge data-base will be incorporated into the Bureau of Meteorology's external web page and will provide much needed infomation on Indigenous people's understanding of their enviroment.
Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our bio ....Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new initiative in extratropical climate analysis. This work will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-interannual climate prediction. Prominent examples include agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, bushfire control, air quality, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Towards Distributed Phased Array Radar for High Resolution Weather Monitoring. Several recent reports on climate change by leading international and national bodies forecast that the rate of weather hazards such as storms and wind-shear, and of weather-associated phenomena such as bush fires will increase over the next 40 years. The current technology for monitoring weather events, and effects like wind-shift, which has a serious impact on dangers associated with bush fires, has significant wea ....Towards Distributed Phased Array Radar for High Resolution Weather Monitoring. Several recent reports on climate change by leading international and national bodies forecast that the rate of weather hazards such as storms and wind-shear, and of weather-associated phenomena such as bush fires will increase over the next 40 years. The current technology for monitoring weather events, and effects like wind-shift, which has a serious impact on dangers associated with bush fires, has significant weaknesses. We will deliver considerable improvements in monitoring capability by developing the technology for using a network of small phased array radars. We aim to place monitoring resources where end-user needs are greatest.Read moreRead less
Tropical and mid- and high latitude cyclones in a time of climate change: New insights and integration. Significant national and community benefits will be derived. Australian weather and climate variability, particularly with respect to rainfall, is influenced dramatically by meteorological features in the tropics and the extratropics. Enhanced understanding of these and their interactions will lead to increased comprehension of the causes of Australian rainfall variability and trends. There ar ....Tropical and mid- and high latitude cyclones in a time of climate change: New insights and integration. Significant national and community benefits will be derived. Australian weather and climate variability, particularly with respect to rainfall, is influenced dramatically by meteorological features in the tropics and the extratropics. Enhanced understanding of these and their interactions will lead to increased comprehension of the causes of Australian rainfall variability and trends. There are also benefits in that the project's timing is very opportune and will be able to derive benefit for Australia by participation in a number of large international programs. The personnel and students will derive considerable profit from expose to these.Read moreRead less
Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. This project would lead to improved accuracy of Australian climate predictions, leading to benefits in many sectors. Increasing the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions across March-May, a crucial time for decision-making in Australian agriculture but a time when the forecasts exhibit little skill, would lead to large economic/societal benefits. Separating the factors influencing tropical cyclones is ....Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. This project would lead to improved accuracy of Australian climate predictions, leading to benefits in many sectors. Increasing the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions across March-May, a crucial time for decision-making in Australian agriculture but a time when the forecasts exhibit little skill, would lead to large economic/societal benefits. Separating the factors influencing tropical cyclones is essential to determine whether global warming is changing Australian tropical cyclones, a crucial climate change question. Separating the influences of atmospheric circulation variations and other factors on climate changes and impacts should improve climate impact predictions, leading to enhanced economic benefits.
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