Quantitative and qualitative aspects of Asian and Australian options. While Asian options are highly popular and traded over the counter all over the world, they are traded on an institutional basis in only very few countries. Australia is one of them. Variable purchase options (VPO's), where the payoff is determined by the quotient of a stock and its average price, are traded on the Australian stock exchange since 1992. They build an important component of the Australian derivatives market and ....Quantitative and qualitative aspects of Asian and Australian options. While Asian options are highly popular and traded over the counter all over the world, they are traded on an institutional basis in only very few countries. Australia is one of them. Variable purchase options (VPO's), where the payoff is determined by the quotient of a stock and its average price, are traded on the Australian stock exchange since 1992. They build an important component of the Australian derivatives market and are particularly interesting for foreign investors, who are not able to find this sort of financial product on their domestic markets. A better understanding of these products is necessary to maximize the benefits for Australia's financial markets and economy. Read moreRead less
Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
From Periphery to Central: the Politics of China's Central Banking Reform and the Building of a Financial Infrastructure in an Age of Transition. China's rapid economic growth and gradual integration with the international system, in particular the increasingly strong economic links between Australia and China, means Australia now has a big stake in China's financial and economic stability. By explaining the dynamics of China's central banking reform, monetary policy and banking reform since 197 ....From Periphery to Central: the Politics of China's Central Banking Reform and the Building of a Financial Infrastructure in an Age of Transition. China's rapid economic growth and gradual integration with the international system, in particular the increasingly strong economic links between Australia and China, means Australia now has a big stake in China's financial and economic stability. By explaining the dynamics of China's central banking reform, monetary policy and banking reform since 1979, this project will significantly enhance our capacity to interpret monetary policy management and financial development in China, to support our commitment to states in the Asia Pacific region that are dealing with economic reforms and transition, and more importantly, to exert influence on the desired direction of change in China through engagement with the Chinese monetary authority.Read moreRead less
International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation ....International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation of foreign currency) on individual economies. The project will determine the appropriate domestic monetary policy response to such shocks, and the potential for forecasting both the advent of such shocks and their impact on individual economies.Read moreRead less
The US Interest Rate Conundrum and its Implications for Australia. The project generalises existing factor models of interest rates. The project will result in several benefits nationally as well as internationally. As U.S. interest rates and U.S. monetary policy in general are important determinants of interest rates in Australia, the project will lead to an improved understanding of the international mechanism linking interest rates. This will also provide a better framework in which to unders ....The US Interest Rate Conundrum and its Implications for Australia. The project generalises existing factor models of interest rates. The project will result in several benefits nationally as well as internationally. As U.S. interest rates and U.S. monetary policy in general are important determinants of interest rates in Australia, the project will lead to an improved understanding of the international mechanism linking interest rates. This will also provide a better framework in which to understand and monitor monetary policy in Australia. An important aspect of the project is the development of new testing procedures that improve upon existing nonparametric methods.Read moreRead less
Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and their effect on economic performance: new theory, empirics, and an application to Australia. Both fiscal and monetary policy are powerful tools that affect the wellbeing of individuals. Even if current policies are 'responsible', the social cost of uncertainty about the future is extremely high - to which the 2004 'high interest rates under Labour' election campaign or current heated fiscal debates in the US and EU testify. Our analysis will contribute to ....Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and their effect on economic performance: new theory, empirics, and an application to Australia. Both fiscal and monetary policy are powerful tools that affect the wellbeing of individuals. Even if current policies are 'responsible', the social cost of uncertainty about the future is extremely high - to which the 2004 'high interest rates under Labour' election campaign or current heated fiscal debates in the US and EU testify. Our analysis will contribute to the reduction of the social cost by identifying the institutional setting that is robust to 'bad' policymakers, i.e. one in which socially optimal policies are 'institutionalized' (legislated) rather than resting with individuals. Such arrangements are further likely to stimulate investment and economic growth.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, ....Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, forecasters and policy makers. Readily applicable and interpretable forecasts of the business cycle and the current state of the Australian (and US) economy (e.g. likelihood of recessions or inflation) will be of direct relevance to Australian policy-makers in Government, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and to the Australian decision-makers. Read moreRead less
MONETARY POLICY WITH LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKETS. Modern monetary policy seeks to influence domestic macroeconomic outcomes, using actions in official Government debt markets. The effectiveness of this route is being challenged by reductions in the level of Government debt outstanding. Monetary policy is faced with the possibility of operating in alternative financial markets. The project will:
* Examine alternative markets for monetary policy operation.
* Examine the effect ....MONETARY POLICY WITH LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKETS. Modern monetary policy seeks to influence domestic macroeconomic outcomes, using actions in official Government debt markets. The effectiveness of this route is being challenged by reductions in the level of Government debt outstanding. Monetary policy is faced with the possibility of operating in alternative financial markets. The project will:
* Examine alternative markets for monetary policy operation.
* Examine the effects of alternatives on real economy outcomes.
* Develop a model of the economy which controls for global financial conditions - which has not been done before.
* Combine modern econometric techniques.
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Growth and Inflation Dynamics: Measuring Steady-State Growth, Output Gaps and Inflationary Pressures using Survey Data in Australia and Other Advanced Economies. The aim of the project is to develop, for Australia and other advanced economies, new measures of 'potential production'. Such measures are important in the prediction of periods of recession and inflation, and in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. The proposal seeks to address the shortcomings of existing measures by (i) incorpor ....Growth and Inflation Dynamics: Measuring Steady-State Growth, Output Gaps and Inflationary Pressures using Survey Data in Australia and Other Advanced Economies. The aim of the project is to develop, for Australia and other advanced economies, new measures of 'potential production'. Such measures are important in the prediction of periods of recession and inflation, and in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. The proposal seeks to address the shortcomings of existing measures by (i) incorporating direct measures of expectations of future output and inflation from survey data, and (ii) being consistent with standard economic analysis. Forming best practice methods in the use of survey data in policy formation and in the production of economic forecasts will be a vital contribution of the project.Read moreRead less