Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empiric ....Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empirical support for this view and study the consequences of imperfectly credible policy. We characterize how monetary policy (conventional and unconventional) and fiscal policy can be used to greatest effect in low interest rate environments and quantify the welfare implications for Australia. Read moreRead less
Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between ....Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between bank competition and economic well-being to enable policymakers to better determine the optimal concentration of banking sector in Australia. This will enhance the productivity and international competitiveness of Australia’s financial system and the broader economy.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE190100840
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from h ....Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from high-frequency financial data. It is expected to significantly improve the speed and accuracy of bubble detection, thereby providing more timely and precise warning alerts for investment decisions, market surveillance and policy action.Read moreRead less
Implications of Global Economic Forces for Domestic Monetary Policy. The project aims to quantify and understand the extent to which international factors affect key macroeconomic variables such as inflation and interest rates in open economies. The aims will be achieved through the development and application of new macroeconomic and econometric models. Expected outcomes are new insights and policy recommendations on how to appropriately conduct monetary policy for an open economy such as Austr ....Implications of Global Economic Forces for Domestic Monetary Policy. The project aims to quantify and understand the extent to which international factors affect key macroeconomic variables such as inflation and interest rates in open economies. The aims will be achieved through the development and application of new macroeconomic and econometric models. Expected outcomes are new insights and policy recommendations on how to appropriately conduct monetary policy for an open economy such as Australia. This should provide significant benefits to the broader Australian economy through the conduct of suitable policy by institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia.Read moreRead less
Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It wil ....Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It will conduct quantitative experiments using simulations, to estimate optimal government policy design settings. This project expects to identify policies that promote productivity, growth and employment.Read moreRead less