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Financial development, liberalisation and productivity growth. The analysis performed in this project will provide some new insights into the role of financial policies in bolstering productivity growth. This issue deserves more attention from the policy circle given that a better understanding of the mechanisms by which finance affects growth performance allows policy makers to evaluate the costs and benefits associated with liberalising and deepening the financial systems, thus enabling the fo ....Financial development, liberalisation and productivity growth. The analysis performed in this project will provide some new insights into the role of financial policies in bolstering productivity growth. This issue deserves more attention from the policy circle given that a better understanding of the mechanisms by which finance affects growth performance allows policy makers to evaluate the costs and benefits associated with liberalising and deepening the financial systems, thus enabling the formulation of effective financial policies. This understanding is critical to achieve the Australian policy makers' objective of promoting financial stability and strengthening growth.Read moreRead less
Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as vo ....Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as volatility in price series, extremal (risky) behaviour of financial systems, and turning points of the business cycle. Discoveries will be disseminated through published papers and presentations at a major international conference. Ongoing e-research links with France will also be established.Read moreRead less
Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhea ....Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhealthy agnosticism regarding many of these relationships. This research will bring more appropriate statistical techniques to bear upon the problem, and if successful will restore confidence in decision-making processes and the relevance and applicability of macroeconomic models. Read moreRead less
Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influenc ....Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influences, it is likely that it will originate elsewhere in the world. In delivering a greater understanding of the interdependencies in international business cycles, the project will assist economic policymakers in their efforts to ameliorate Australia's next recession. Read moreRead less
Multiscale Singularly Perturbed Control Systems. We propose to develop a unified averaging technique to analyse deterministic and stochastic multiscale singularly perturbed control systems. Such systems arise as mathematical models of real-world dynamical systems in which state variables can change their values with the rates of different orders of magnitude. The technique is based on the assumption that the system, which would describe the dynamics of the fast state variables if slow ones were ....Multiscale Singularly Perturbed Control Systems. We propose to develop a unified averaging technique to analyse deterministic and stochastic multiscale singularly perturbed control systems. Such systems arise as mathematical models of real-world dynamical systems in which state variables can change their values with the rates of different orders of magnitude. The technique is based on the assumption that the system, which would describe the dynamics of the fast state variables if slow ones were frozen, possesses certain ergodicity properties expressed in the existence of its limit occupational measures set. Conditions for the existence of such a set will be studied and its structure will be described.Read moreRead less
Hedge Funds in Superannuation Portfolios: Are the Returns Worth the Risks? In recent years superannuation funds have delivered negative returns to members due to poorly performing stockmarkets. In striving to achieve higher rates of return, superannuation trustees have commenced allocating retirement savings to a new type of investment opportunity, termed hedge funds. There is a paucity of research about this new type of investment, particularly relating to the non-linear nature of hedge funds ....Hedge Funds in Superannuation Portfolios: Are the Returns Worth the Risks? In recent years superannuation funds have delivered negative returns to members due to poorly performing stockmarkets. In striving to achieve higher rates of return, superannuation trustees have commenced allocating retirement savings to a new type of investment opportunity, termed hedge funds. There is a paucity of research about this new type of investment, particularly relating to the non-linear nature of hedge funds returns. This study will investigate the risk and return trade-off of including hedge funds in superannuation portfolios and provide trustees with empirical tools to determine the optimal allocation to hedge funds.Read moreRead less
Cycles and Size: Long Term Valuation and Investment Performance. This project will significantly enhance our understanding of the cyclical variation in the returns and volatility of size-related equity classes. A better understanding of these cyclical phenomena may also lead to improvements in the asset allocation process, in particular the investment in medium- and
small-sized enterprise shares. The current neglect by analysts and reluctance of institutional investors to research and invest in ....Cycles and Size: Long Term Valuation and Investment Performance. This project will significantly enhance our understanding of the cyclical variation in the returns and volatility of size-related equity classes. A better understanding of these cyclical phenomena may also lead to improvements in the asset allocation process, in particular the investment in medium- and
small-sized enterprise shares. The current neglect by analysts and reluctance of institutional investors to research and invest in this sizable market segment offers significant opportunities for linkage research. This project will focus on the valuation, (il)liquidity, and macroeconomic sources of momentum profits as they related to the economic cycle, across the size spectrum.
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Understanding the Effects of News Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations. There are significant potential benefits for Australia. First, it could lead to more effective policymaking, with an understanding of how policy in one branch of the government can affect other sectors that have not been considered before. For example, changes in fiscal policy can affect not just growth, but also unemployment, inflation, and the income distribution. Second, this project will make a contribution to the resear ....Understanding the Effects of News Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations. There are significant potential benefits for Australia. First, it could lead to more effective policymaking, with an understanding of how policy in one branch of the government can affect other sectors that have not been considered before. For example, changes in fiscal policy can affect not just growth, but also unemployment, inflation, and the income distribution. Second, this project will make a contribution to the research training of new macroeconomists in Australia: we will train three PhD students in the very latest methods. We also will organize a conference and bring the very top economists in the world to work with researchers here, and to consider issues surrounding the Australian economy. Read moreRead less
Forecasting with single source of randomness state space models. The framework developed in this project, for identifying and
extrapolating trends, seasonal patterns and economic cycles in time
series, has a large and diverse range of useful applications in
Australia. Some examples include its potential use in the
development of appropriate monetary policy, its use to better inform
finance markets of risk levels associated with shares, its use to
forecast demand in supply chains to provide ....Forecasting with single source of randomness state space models. The framework developed in this project, for identifying and
extrapolating trends, seasonal patterns and economic cycles in time
series, has a large and diverse range of useful applications in
Australia. Some examples include its potential use in the
development of appropriate monetary policy, its use to better inform
finance markets of risk levels associated with shares, its use to
forecast demand in supply chains to provide a better service to
customers, and its use in call centres to better tailor staff
schedules to meet customer calls.Read moreRead less
Energy efficiency, economic growth and the environment in China. This project will provide Australian government, business and the broader community with comprehensive knowledge about China's growth which is closely linked to the Australian resources boom and hence economic growth in recent years. It will give Australia a leading edge in understanding China within the context of sustainable development and provide an assessment of the impact that China's continued growth may have on the world in ....Energy efficiency, economic growth and the environment in China. This project will provide Australian government, business and the broader community with comprehensive knowledge about China's growth which is closely linked to the Australian resources boom and hence economic growth in recent years. It will give Australia a leading edge in understanding China within the context of sustainable development and provide an assessment of the impact that China's continued growth may have on the world in general and on the Australian economy in particular. The insights on China's energy and environmental sectors gained through this project will be vital for Australian businesses attempting to tap into the Chinese market, and Sino-Australian cooperation on climate change.Read moreRead less