Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empiric ....Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empirical support for this view and study the consequences of imperfectly credible policy. We characterize how monetary policy (conventional and unconventional) and fiscal policy can be used to greatest effect in low interest rate environments and quantify the welfare implications for Australia. Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100806
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$347,620.00
Summary
Human capital risk: implications for policy. The project examines how human capital investment decisions are affected by risk and policy actions that are taken to partially alleviate these risks. The quantitative analysis provides important insights which will enhance the debate on the merits of education subsidies and unemployment benefits program in the United States and Australia.
Automation and Income Inequality: Macroeconomic Policy Implications. The transition to wider use of robotics and artificial intelligence may eventually make our citizens better off, yet effects on domestic income and wealth inequality remain uncertain, depending strongly on general governance and macroeconomic policy regimes. This project would help clarify income inequality effects, both abroad and in Australia, through (i) new numerical theory from calibrated economic models at the global and ....Automation and Income Inequality: Macroeconomic Policy Implications. The transition to wider use of robotics and artificial intelligence may eventually make our citizens better off, yet effects on domestic income and wealth inequality remain uncertain, depending strongly on general governance and macroeconomic policy regimes. This project would help clarify income inequality effects, both abroad and in Australia, through (i) new numerical theory from calibrated economic models at the global and national levels; (ii) econometric testing of results from global and national data; (iii) the use of emerging insights to analyse economic policy responses and their global interaction as well as the implications for Australian economic policyRead moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Estimating the effects of fiscal policy. This project will develop highly flexible models for estimating the effects of fiscal policy, as well as providing insight into how economic assumptions affect these estimates and which assumptions are supported by historical experience. The models and estimates will be useful for researchers, policymakers and businesses.
Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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Time-consistent macroeconomic policy in nonlinear models. Efforts to use fiscal policy for macro-stabilisation have led to elevated debt levels and possible default in many countries. This project examines the appropriate design of fiscal policy and its implications for debt over the business cycle.
Estimation of the continuous piecewise linear model and macroeconomic applications. Relationships between economic variables are often characterised by non-linearities. This project develops a method to analyse a type of non-linearity that is frequently encountered in economics and uses this method to study four specific applications concerning the dynamics of inflation, growth, and the exchange rate.
Growing inequality in incomes and wealth and the taxation of capital income: an economic and legal analysis. The research combines the expertise of leading scholars in economics and law to produce proposals for reform of Australia's system of taxing capital and labour incomes. This issue is of central importance to Australia's future, in the light of the challenges posed by increasing inequality of incomes and wealth, globalisation and population ageing.
Challenging the neoliberal critique of deficit spending and public debt. This project aims to analyse the rhetoric of balanced budgets by examining its intellectual and political history and revisiting counterarguments. Expected outcomes from the project will include insights into the development of rhetoric based on analysis of archival, textual and interview-based data . Findings from the project will be published in online fora with wide readership in national and international policy circle ....Challenging the neoliberal critique of deficit spending and public debt. This project aims to analyse the rhetoric of balanced budgets by examining its intellectual and political history and revisiting counterarguments. Expected outcomes from the project will include insights into the development of rhetoric based on analysis of archival, textual and interview-based data . Findings from the project will be published in online fora with wide readership in national and international policy circles. The project has the capacity to provide insights into and benefits for policy discourse on government deficit-spending and public debt.Read moreRead less