Solving and estimating dynamic models of strategic interaction. This project aims to investigate how firms interact with each other through time and how these interactions drive both the operation of, and value created in, economic markets. While recent theoretical models predominantly capture the complexity of these dynamic interactions, the methods for testing these models’ predictions against observed data do not. Instead, they are based on a range of simplifying assumptions that undermine th ....Solving and estimating dynamic models of strategic interaction. This project aims to investigate how firms interact with each other through time and how these interactions drive both the operation of, and value created in, economic markets. While recent theoretical models predominantly capture the complexity of these dynamic interactions, the methods for testing these models’ predictions against observed data do not. Instead, they are based on a range of simplifying assumptions that undermine the reliability of their analysis. This project will develop statistical and computational methods to better understand observed economic behaviour. By allowing the effects of proposed economic interventions and regulations ex ante, this project will support the development of more efficient and better-targeted policies in every area of the economy.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120101426
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Understanding industrialisation, entrepreneurship, and technology adoption in emerging economies: new evidence from historical Japanese firms. Japan's pre-war industrialisation is widely used as a model by emerging economies, despite a lack of detailed data. This project provides a new firm-level dataset from hitherto unused archives, which allows empirical testing of theories about entrepreneurial activity, technology adoption, financial access, and other determinants of economic growth.
International coalitions for climate change mitigation: the role of carbon market linkages and trade restrictions. This project uses cooperative game theory, implementation theory and agent-based modelling to investigate how coalitions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could be formed and maintained among countries. Applications include the role of carbon market linkage and trade policy, in countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Advancing resilience theory and practice for water resource management. Water resources in Australia and worldwide are under severe stress, for example from drought and water demand. This project aims to investigate how water and other natural resources can be managed to build resilience to such stresses. The project expects to develop advances in resilience theory that generate new model-based tools for resilient decision-making. These advances will be tested in a model of water resource manage ....Advancing resilience theory and practice for water resource management. Water resources in Australia and worldwide are under severe stress, for example from drought and water demand. This project aims to investigate how water and other natural resources can be managed to build resilience to such stresses. The project expects to develop advances in resilience theory that generate new model-based tools for resilient decision-making. These advances will be tested in a model of water resource management in north-central Victoria. Expected outcomes of the project include increased decision-maker capability to respond to threats to water and other natural resources. Such outcomes will help ensure the sustainability of increasingly highly stressed natural resources in Australia and worldwide.Read moreRead less
Understanding online attention and user-generated content creation: An information consumption and production perspective. There is a strong practical need for methods for understanding and measuring online behaviour. In this project, economic index number theory will be used to study information consumption, leading to new ways of measuring online attention and influence. Techniques for studying scaling relationships in the physical world will be used to study information production, leading to ....Understanding online attention and user-generated content creation: An information consumption and production perspective. There is a strong practical need for methods for understanding and measuring online behaviour. In this project, economic index number theory will be used to study information consumption, leading to new ways of measuring online attention and influence. Techniques for studying scaling relationships in the physical world will be used to study information production, leading to new insights into the efficiency of production of user-generated content. The project will contribute to understanding how social media such as Twitter contribute to social unrest and affect consumer decisions, and how distributed online collaboration can produce economically-valuable information resources such as Wikipedia.Read moreRead less
Estimation of the continuous piecewise linear model and macroeconomic applications. Relationships between economic variables are often characterised by non-linearities. This project develops a method to analyse a type of non-linearity that is frequently encountered in economics and uses this method to study four specific applications concerning the dynamics of inflation, growth, and the exchange rate.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130101605
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$289,000.00
Summary
Composing machine learning via market mechanisms. This project aims to better understand connections between learning algorithms and markets as aggregators of information and develop new, principled techniques for combining predictions. This will improve our ability to construct systems that make predictions based on multiple, complex and structured sources of data.
J.G. Crawford: Shaping Australia's Place in the World. Through a study of Sir John Grenfell (J.G.) Crawford, this project will examine transformations in Australian policy during the middle decades of the twentieth century. Crawford was a leading member of a generation of public servants who recast the practices of government, in this case through a particular focus on Australia's role in our region and among developing countries.
Adaptive economic management of Australia's urban water. This project responds to the so-called 'wicked problem' of ensuring an adequate supply of water to urban consumers at the lowest price even during long-term droughts. The project will generate, for the first time in the world, an integrated, dynamic, and adaptive supply and demand model to manage urban water optimally over time.