Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data. South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia's leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia's climate history. Th ....Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data. South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia's leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia's climate history. The greatly extended record of annual rainfall and temperature variability will allow better planning for water storage and use, and improved testing of climate model simulations. Improving our understanding of the historical impacts of climate extremes on society will assist with planning for life in a hotter and drier future.Read moreRead less
A new paradigm for catchment management: detection, forecasting and management of water catchments with multiple steady states. Understanding the response and recovery of Australia's water catchments to climatic change and variability is become increasingly urgent. Our catchments are vulnerable because there is a fundamental gap in our understanding of how they recover from high or low rainfall periods. This project will: a) advance water management concepts; b) build tools to understand how and ....A new paradigm for catchment management: detection, forecasting and management of water catchments with multiple steady states. Understanding the response and recovery of Australia's water catchments to climatic change and variability is become increasingly urgent. Our catchments are vulnerable because there is a fundamental gap in our understanding of how they recover from high or low rainfall periods. This project will: a) advance water management concepts; b) build tools to understand how and when catchments might switch to new states when hit by a disturbance; and c) identify how best to build the buffering capacity to reduce the chance of a switch occurring. The project will make Australia's groundwater and streamflow resources more secure and make Australian researchers and water resource managers world leaders in the emerging science of catchment resilience.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Narrowing the scatter and assessing the uncertainty of climate change projections of Australian river flows. Recent prolonged dry conditions in south-eastern Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities, zero irrigation allocations in the Murray-Darling region and highlighted the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of the uncertainty of future annual river flows, leading to more informed ....Narrowing the scatter and assessing the uncertainty of climate change projections of Australian river flows. Recent prolonged dry conditions in south-eastern Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities, zero irrigation allocations in the Murray-Darling region and highlighted the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of the uncertainty of future annual river flows, leading to more informed decision making for the sustainable management of Australia’s increasingly scarce water resources. The outcomes from this project are highly relevant to the national research priority “An Environmentally Sustainable Australia”, particularly priority goals “Water - a critical resource” and “Responding to climate change and variability”.Read moreRead less
Risk assessment for environmental health in Adelaide based on weather, air pollution and population health outcomes. This is the first systematic assessment of the effect of climate variation and air pollution on population health in an Australian temperate region. It is one of the ARC's research priorities (PG 7: Responding to climate change and variability). The results will provide a more complete picture of association among air pollution, climate variability and population health in Austral ....Risk assessment for environmental health in Adelaide based on weather, air pollution and population health outcomes. This is the first systematic assessment of the effect of climate variation and air pollution on population health in an Australian temperate region. It is one of the ARC's research priorities (PG 7: Responding to climate change and variability). The results will provide a more complete picture of association among air pollution, climate variability and population health in Australia. They will also provide important information to policy-makers and communities for their relevant actions, including changes in resource management systems and the operation of these systems, a range of socioeconomic actions, infrastructure establishment, disaster prevention and emergency events response regulation, and health education and promotion campaigns.Read moreRead less
Sustainable development in southwestern Victoria: construction of a baseline palaeoecological record for assessment of past and future human-environment interactions. A detailed, continuous, sediment-based, multi-proxy palaeoenvironment record, will be constructed to contribute to the goals of the innovative, community-based Lake Condah Sustainability Development Project that are informed management and heritage listing of the Mt Eccles lava flow region, southwestern Victoria. The record, coveri ....Sustainable development in southwestern Victoria: construction of a baseline palaeoecological record for assessment of past and future human-environment interactions. A detailed, continuous, sediment-based, multi-proxy palaeoenvironment record, will be constructed to contribute to the goals of the innovative, community-based Lake Condah Sustainability Development Project that are informed management and heritage listing of the Mt Eccles lava flow region, southwestern Victoria. The record, covering at least the last 20,000 years, is designed to (a) provide a dated framework for understanding past human-environment relationships, especially the development of a unique Aboriginal complex hunter-gatherer society based on aquaculture, (b) an historical basis for fire management of a nationally important vegetation community and (c) the provision of a palaeoclimate record of global significance.Read moreRead less
What drives recruitment variability in Snapper? Application of a novel theoretical and empirical approach to predict fluctuations in fisheries. This research will contribute to the sustainable management of the snapper resource to both protect the population and also provide long-term sustainability in terms of the ecosystem goods and services provided by the fishery, and associated social and economic benefits. Results will have broad applicability, as the critical environmental factors identif ....What drives recruitment variability in Snapper? Application of a novel theoretical and empirical approach to predict fluctuations in fisheries. This research will contribute to the sustainable management of the snapper resource to both protect the population and also provide long-term sustainability in terms of the ecosystem goods and services provided by the fishery, and associated social and economic benefits. Results will have broad applicability, as the critical environmental factors identified are likely to influence other species as well. Understanding the environmental factors underpinning recruitment variation in snapper will allow better predictions of impacts on recruitment levels resulting from climatic variability in the short term, and also longer-term effects of climate change on the population, for incorporation into future management assessments.Read moreRead less
Assessing clouds and rainfall in Australia's community climate model - Towards an improved simulation of Australia's water resources. Climate change is likely to significantly affect Australia's water resources. A well-measured response to this challenge requires reliable projections of future climate using modern Earth System Models. By thoroughly evaluating Australia's community climate model this research will inform Australia's adaptation policy and through subsequent model development it wi ....Assessing clouds and rainfall in Australia's community climate model - Towards an improved simulation of Australia's water resources. Climate change is likely to significantly affect Australia's water resources. A well-measured response to this challenge requires reliable projections of future climate using modern Earth System Models. By thoroughly evaluating Australia's community climate model this research will inform Australia's adaptation policy and through subsequent model development it will contribute to significant improvements in our ability to understand and predict climate change. Through better informing water resource management the research constitutes an important contribution to an environmentally sustainable Australia. Read moreRead less