Nonlinear Panel Data Econometrics: Theory and Practice. This research addresses the ARC National Research Priorities Goal of 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia', specifically 'Reducing and capturing emissions in transport and energy generation'. Avoiding, managing, and/or adapting to the climate change impacts is now the most pressing global environmental problem. This project will produce tangible and original insights into policy options for institutional adjustment to future climate ....Nonlinear Panel Data Econometrics: Theory and Practice. This research addresses the ARC National Research Priorities Goal of 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia', specifically 'Reducing and capturing emissions in transport and energy generation'. Avoiding, managing, and/or adapting to the climate change impacts is now the most pressing global environmental problem. This project will produce tangible and original insights into policy options for institutional adjustment to future climate change in Australia; will provide insight into the scope for positive community behavioural change; and possible transformations in Australian social debate to maximise adaptive capacity. It will also strengthen and produce original conceptual approaches and research methods.Read moreRead less
Responses of southern Australian mammal faunas to climate change before and after human arrival. In the past 170 years, southern Australia mammals have suffered one of the worst extinction rates in the world. More losses are predicted in the face of global warming. This recent extinction wave follows a major extinction event that saw 90% of Australia's large animals disappear 60,000-40,000 years ago. The causes are hotly debated. Some researchers argue for a human cause, others suggest that clim ....Responses of southern Australian mammal faunas to climate change before and after human arrival. In the past 170 years, southern Australia mammals have suffered one of the worst extinction rates in the world. More losses are predicted in the face of global warming. This recent extinction wave follows a major extinction event that saw 90% of Australia's large animals disappear 60,000-40,000 years ago. The causes are hotly debated. Some researchers argue for a human cause, others suggest that climate change was to blame. This study will refine our knowledge of the timing and causes of these extinctions in southern Australia by assessing how communities responded to climate change in the lead-up to human arrival. It will provide vital information for managing the conservation of many modern species and guide us in limiting future losses.Read moreRead less
The Response of the Middle Atmosphere to Solar and Dynamical Forcing. The region of the atmosphere and ionosphere between 50 and 100 km is difficult to measure directly. We will use a unique array of instruments deployed across Australia to study how this region responds to waves generated in the lower atmosphere and to changes in electromagnetic energy from the sun and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere. Outcomes will help our understanding of how the region is responding to rising l ....The Response of the Middle Atmosphere to Solar and Dynamical Forcing. The region of the atmosphere and ionosphere between 50 and 100 km is difficult to measure directly. We will use a unique array of instruments deployed across Australia to study how this region responds to waves generated in the lower atmosphere and to changes in electromagnetic energy from the sun and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere. Outcomes will help our understanding of how the region is responding to rising levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. Cooling effects are already apparent and our research will look for additional evidence of change.Read moreRead less
Density regulation as a major determinant of population persistence: advancing empirical and theoretical approaches to conserve biodiversity. Without efficient application of limited conservation resources, more species will go extinct and invasive species will continue to proliferate. With a better understanding of extinction processes, a higher benefit:cost ratio will ensure better outcomes for biodiversity. We will directly address (1) the sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity by provid ....Density regulation as a major determinant of population persistence: advancing empirical and theoretical approaches to conserve biodiversity. Without efficient application of limited conservation resources, more species will go extinct and invasive species will continue to proliferate. With a better understanding of extinction processes, a higher benefit:cost ratio will ensure better outcomes for biodiversity. We will directly address (1) the sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity by providing evidence-based support for minimum viable population size targets to avoid extinction; (2) responding to climate change by determining the species- and environmentally specific contexts leading to elevated risks of extinction; and (3) protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests by determining density targets that maximise eradication success.Read moreRead less
Using ancient DNA to investigate the environmental impacts of climate change and humans through time. This project will provide important information about how climate change and human impact have effected our environment over the past 50,000 years, removing many of the large mammals and altering the landscape. It is critical that the background to our current environment is properly understood if we are to predict the effects of on-going changes such as global warming. The research will concent ....Using ancient DNA to investigate the environmental impacts of climate change and humans through time. This project will provide important information about how climate change and human impact have effected our environment over the past 50,000 years, removing many of the large mammals and altering the landscape. It is critical that the background to our current environment is properly understood if we are to predict the effects of on-going changes such as global warming. The research will concentrate on the effects of climate change on large mammals in North and South America, New Zealand, Australia and Africa over this time period, and will examine the additional impact of humans in each location.Read moreRead less
A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation tech ....A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will quantify the risks associated with current and future climate change, and the combined risks that come from multiple sources, such as from coastal tides and storm runoff. This research will provide a new spatial framework for calculating risk as well as tools to evaluate flood risk.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing past population dynamics to understand human and climatic impacts in prehistory. More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research will determine the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the last 46 millennia. Our approach is powerful and novel because it will effectively draw together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exp ....Reconstructing past population dynamics to understand human and climatic impacts in prehistory. More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research will determine the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the last 46 millennia. Our approach is powerful and novel because it will effectively draw together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exploitation and habitat alteration by ancient people, and the influence of dramatic climatic shifts on the Australian biota. Information on past biological responses to environmental change is critical to properly contextualising the current impact, and long-term consequences of, threats such as global warming, habitat loss and invasive species.Read moreRead less
Nonlinear spatial and spatiotemporal econometrics: theory with applications. Modern societies like Australia have major challenges in the forecasting, measuring and managing of risks associated with global economic and environmental/climate changes. These tasks require advanced econometric techniques in modelling and forecasting of complex nonlinear spatiotemporal variability in economic and social systems. This project will develop frontier econometric technologies that enable more accurate eco ....Nonlinear spatial and spatiotemporal econometrics: theory with applications. Modern societies like Australia have major challenges in the forecasting, measuring and managing of risks associated with global economic and environmental/climate changes. These tasks require advanced econometric techniques in modelling and forecasting of complex nonlinear spatiotemporal variability in economic and social systems. This project will develop frontier econometric technologies that enable more accurate economic and climate forecasts. The tools produced will provide Australia's scientists and policy-makers with a greater capacity to manage the risks associated with these challenges. A side-benefit of the research will be high-quality publications that enhance the nation's reputation in this cutting edge research.Read moreRead less
New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the ....New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the policy making process.Read moreRead less
Constraining the snowball earth: timing and duration of neoproterozoic glaciations using precise Re-Os geochronology. This project aims to investigate the onset and duration of major global glacial events during the period of Earth history when metazoan life first appeared. Understanding such processes will enable insights into both the rate and nature of evolutionary processes, and place constraints of ancient and modern climate models. This will be achieved by establishing a facility to obtain ....Constraining the snowball earth: timing and duration of neoproterozoic glaciations using precise Re-Os geochronology. This project aims to investigate the onset and duration of major global glacial events during the period of Earth history when metazoan life first appeared. Understanding such processes will enable insights into both the rate and nature of evolutionary processes, and place constraints of ancient and modern climate models. This will be achieved by establishing a facility to obtain precise Re-Os isotope age data from sediments at Adelaide University (only the second such in the world), and studying sedimentary rocks preserved in the Centralian Superbasin. A basis for global stratigraphic correlation will also result from the intended program of work.Read moreRead less