Deep-sea coral ocean-climate records of the last glacial and recent eras. The project aims to predict the ocean carbon dioxide sink’s long-term capacity and future trajectories of global warming and increasing carbon dioxide. This project will use geochemical proxies encoded in the skeletons of deep-sea corals in the Perth Canyon, Tasman seas, and Antarctica, in the heart of the ocean-climate system, to reveal continuous long-term records of environmental change at annual-decadal resolution for ....Deep-sea coral ocean-climate records of the last glacial and recent eras. The project aims to predict the ocean carbon dioxide sink’s long-term capacity and future trajectories of global warming and increasing carbon dioxide. This project will use geochemical proxies encoded in the skeletons of deep-sea corals in the Perth Canyon, Tasman seas, and Antarctica, in the heart of the ocean-climate system, to reveal continuous long-term records of environmental change at annual-decadal resolution for our recent past (hundreds to thousands of years) and the Last Glacial Maximum. These records are expected to provide a more accurate understanding of Earth’s long-term responses to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and global warming.Read moreRead less
El Niño in a changing climate: novel long-term perspectives from Pacific corals and model simulations. El Niño and La Niña events have a profound influence on Australian drought conditions and rainfall. Forecasting is hampered by short climate records, which do not capture the full range of El Niño dynamics. This project aims to generate records of unprecedented length and spatial coverage from key sites across the western and central equatorial Pacific. Five hundred years of continuous, monthly ....El Niño in a changing climate: novel long-term perspectives from Pacific corals and model simulations. El Niño and La Niña events have a profound influence on Australian drought conditions and rainfall. Forecasting is hampered by short climate records, which do not capture the full range of El Niño dynamics. This project aims to generate records of unprecedented length and spatial coverage from key sites across the western and central equatorial Pacific. Five hundred years of continuous, monthly-resolution climate data will be integrated with output from state-of-the-art climate model simulations to distil the key processes that cause El Niño to vary. This project aims to provide major advances in determining the full range of El Niño and La Niña behaviour, leading to improved forecasts of future changes, with consequences for Australia's water security.Read moreRead less
The deep-sea carbon reservoir through geological time. Despite being by far the largest carbon reservoir on Earth, deep-sea carbonate and its recycling through the Earth system are the most significant missing links in our knowledge of the global carbon cycle. This project aims to track the evolution of the deep-sea carbon reservoir over the last 150 million years by using recently developed spatio-temporal computational and model-data synthesis tools. The project will provide the first rigorous ....The deep-sea carbon reservoir through geological time. Despite being by far the largest carbon reservoir on Earth, deep-sea carbonate and its recycling through the Earth system are the most significant missing links in our knowledge of the global carbon cycle. This project aims to track the evolution of the deep-sea carbon reservoir over the last 150 million years by using recently developed spatio-temporal computational and model-data synthesis tools. The project will provide the first rigorous quantification of the distribution and volume of carbon in deep-sea carbonate, and its fluxes between the Earth’s surface and interior. It will advance our understanding of the history and rate of carbon dioxide storage and degassing over geological time, and inform public debate on climate change.Read moreRead less
Investigating the controls on the extent of tidewater glaciers. This project aims to improve our ability to model tidewater glaciers. The project will conduct studies of two iconic glacial systems in Alaska: Glacier Bay and Columbia Glacier. These glaciers have recently experienced rapid retreat and contributed to sea level rise. In particular, the Grand Pacific Glacier has retreated 100 kilometres up Glacier Bay, the greatest recorded glacier retreat in the last 200 years. The project will use ....Investigating the controls on the extent of tidewater glaciers. This project aims to improve our ability to model tidewater glaciers. The project will conduct studies of two iconic glacial systems in Alaska: Glacier Bay and Columbia Glacier. These glaciers have recently experienced rapid retreat and contributed to sea level rise. In particular, the Grand Pacific Glacier has retreated 100 kilometres up Glacier Bay, the greatest recorded glacier retreat in the last 200 years. The project will use geomorphic mapping, dating and climate reanalysis to better understand the long term behaviour of these glaciers and the drivers of recent retreat. An expected outcome from the project is a better understanding of the long term behaviour of tidewater glaciers and an improvement in our ability to predict sea level rise from them.Read moreRead less
Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due t ....Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. The project will measure future changes in oceanic circulation on ocean acidification and oxygen content with a state-of-the-art high-resolution ocean carbon cycle model. This will lead to improved understanding of processes and feedbacks within the Earth system.Read moreRead less
Distribution of ocean heat uptake and its implications for sea level and climate change. Increasing sea levels and ocean temperatures provide critical evidence of long term warming of the climate system. This project will investigate geographical changes in the vertical distribution of heat uptake by the ocean and contribution to sea level changes, including understanding of physical mechanisms and the role of human activity and other natural external and internal factors. The expected outcomes ....Distribution of ocean heat uptake and its implications for sea level and climate change. Increasing sea levels and ocean temperatures provide critical evidence of long term warming of the climate system. This project will investigate geographical changes in the vertical distribution of heat uptake by the ocean and contribution to sea level changes, including understanding of physical mechanisms and the role of human activity and other natural external and internal factors. The expected outcomes will contribute to place more rigorous constraints on the likelihood of future warming and sea level rise projections, and are aligned with scientific deliverables required to address key questions in support of Australia’s climate change policy.Read moreRead less
Quantifying and mitigating changes in Australia’s rainfall belts. This project aims to understand how past climate changes affected Australia’s rainfall belts, and to reverse recent changes in rainfall belts. Australia’s climate belts are moving, but it is unclear if the effects on tropical and temperate rainfall will be permanent. This project will use past climate records and palaeoclimate databases to assess how natural and human-induced changes during the past millennium affected Australia’s ....Quantifying and mitigating changes in Australia’s rainfall belts. This project aims to understand how past climate changes affected Australia’s rainfall belts, and to reverse recent changes in rainfall belts. Australia’s climate belts are moving, but it is unclear if the effects on tropical and temperate rainfall will be permanent. This project will use past climate records and palaeoclimate databases to assess how natural and human-induced changes during the past millennium affected Australia’s rainfall zones, and specialised climate model simulations to determine whether greenhouse gas reduction could mitigate future rainfall changes. The outcomes are expected to inform policy and mitigation strategies to secure Australia’s precious water resources.Read moreRead less
Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO e ....Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO event precursors, initiation and predictability, this project intends to enhance skill in inter-seasonal climate forecasting and help those sectors reliant on accurate prediction.Read moreRead less
Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitatio ....Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitations. Any model failings identified will feed into model development strategies and support enhanced decision-making informed by regional climate model simulations.Read moreRead less
Dynamics of the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean is critically important to future global climate: it controls the natural global carbon cycle and the distribution of heat and nutrients around the ocean. This project will investigate key uncertainties in the Southern Ocean's response to climate change, and thereby improve our capacity to predict future climate.