A New Economic History of Australia. Australia is at a cross-roads. After almost a century of protectionism we have globally re-integrated and liberalised, as we were when we possessed the world's highest standard of living in the nineteenth century. But we have yet to truly rebuild our capability to compete well in a global knowledge economy and to do so sustainably and justly. It is the presumption of this Project that a new understanding of the role of human investment in our history can hel ....A New Economic History of Australia. Australia is at a cross-roads. After almost a century of protectionism we have globally re-integrated and liberalised, as we were when we possessed the world's highest standard of living in the nineteenth century. But we have yet to truly rebuild our capability to compete well in a global knowledge economy and to do so sustainably and justly. It is the presumption of this Project that a new understanding of the role of human investment in our history can help underpin a clearer understanding of the policy imperatives for our future. The Project will lead to an explicit and detailed policy agenda for re-shaping Australia's future so as to be again a clever country.Read moreRead less
Business Profitability and Long Term Industrial Change in Twentieth-Century Australia. This project will establish Australia as a pioneer in longitudinal research into business profitability in terms of assembling new data and its use to analyse the relationship of profitability with capital formation and structural change in the economy. It will extend our knowledge of long-term returns to equity investment, a category of savings and pension funding now common to most Australians, and contribut ....Business Profitability and Long Term Industrial Change in Twentieth-Century Australia. This project will establish Australia as a pioneer in longitudinal research into business profitability in terms of assembling new data and its use to analyse the relationship of profitability with capital formation and structural change in the economy. It will extend our knowledge of long-term returns to equity investment, a category of savings and pension funding now common to most Australians, and contribute to our understanding of Australia's comparative business performance in light of current debates regarding the alleged limited global competitiveness and corporate governance shortcomings of leading Australian corporations.Read moreRead less
Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset ....Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset classes, and Value at Risk (VaR) thresholds. The innovative methods and models will permit both financial institutions and regulatory authorities to model VaR thresholds more accurately, and enable investment managers to regulate and benchmark their portfolios more effectively against international best practice.
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Securitised Real Estate and Private Dwellings: International and Domestic Linkages and Implications for the Macroeconomy. Cycles in the housing market and its interaction with other economic and financial market variables may have enormous effects on the Australian economy. Despite this there is little research on the interactions between housing and the macroeconomy. This project examines these issues. The implications of the research extend to three broad areas. The first is monetary policy by ....Securitised Real Estate and Private Dwellings: International and Domestic Linkages and Implications for the Macroeconomy. Cycles in the housing market and its interaction with other economic and financial market variables may have enormous effects on the Australian economy. Despite this there is little research on the interactions between housing and the macroeconomy. This project examines these issues. The implications of the research extend to three broad areas. The first is monetary policy by understanding housing prices, inflation and interest rates linkages. Second, constructing formal models including housing may provide a means of testing the implications of policies such as the first home owner grant or reductions in housing specific taxes. Finally, financial markets may benefit by understanding of the role of property in a diversified portfolio.Read moreRead less
Energy Efficiency Innovation, Diffusion and the Rebound Effect. This project aims to help quantify the net energy saved globally from energy efficiency policies and programs. It aims to investigate the speed at which energy efficiency innovations spread to countries across the world from technologically leading countries and to measure empirically the size of the rebound effect that offsets energy efficiency improvements at the economy-wide level. Governments and international organisations are ....Energy Efficiency Innovation, Diffusion and the Rebound Effect. This project aims to help quantify the net energy saved globally from energy efficiency policies and programs. It aims to investigate the speed at which energy efficiency innovations spread to countries across the world from technologically leading countries and to measure empirically the size of the rebound effect that offsets energy efficiency improvements at the economy-wide level. Governments and international organisations are increasingly looking to energy efficiency policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy security, but there is little information on the potential for these policies to actually save energy and, therefore, reduce emissions. Project results may help in the design of cost-effective energy and climate policies.Read moreRead less
An economic analysis of local content requirements in radio broadcasting: a model and an empirical investigation of the Australian experience. How much local music should radio stations be required to play? Twenty per cent? Thirty per cent? As much or as little as they wish? Who benefits from such schemes? Local musicians? International record companies? Who is hurt? Radio stations? The listening public? By better understanding the effects of local content quotas on radio broadcasters (an ....An economic analysis of local content requirements in radio broadcasting: a model and an empirical investigation of the Australian experience. How much local music should radio stations be required to play? Twenty per cent? Thirty per cent? As much or as little as they wish? Who benefits from such schemes? Local musicians? International record companies? Who is hurt? Radio stations? The listening public? By better understanding the effects of local content quotas on radio broadcasters (and the ways in which they lead to those effects) and by being aware of the actual consequences of the Australian scheme (and, potentially, those of other countries) we can better answer these sorts of questions. Gaining such understanding is the goal of this research. Read moreRead less
Computational methods for solving modern asset pricing models. This project aims to solve a broad range of asset pricing models. Movements in asset prices affect private investors, public sector finances, wealth distribution and business activity levels. Economists have tried to build better models of asset prices, moving away from hyper-rationality and towards realistic features including heterogeneity, habit persistence and bounded rationality. These models’ additional complexity makes them di ....Computational methods for solving modern asset pricing models. This project aims to solve a broad range of asset pricing models. Movements in asset prices affect private investors, public sector finances, wealth distribution and business activity levels. Economists have tried to build better models of asset prices, moving away from hyper-rationality and towards realistic features including heterogeneity, habit persistence and bounded rationality. These models’ additional complexity makes them difficult to solve or to apply to real world problems. The project will use modern hardware and computational tools, insights from economics literature and numerical analysis to provide a set of solution methods for such asset pricing models. This is expected to improve policy analysis and decision making under uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Commodity cycles. The implications of resource demand by emerging markets are issues policy makers need to understand. This project address these by focusing on currency, equity and commodity linkages, the financial market and macroeconomic effects of currency collapse, and the role of emerging markets in mitigating/amplifying economic shock transmission.
Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The p ....Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The properties of the models are investigated as well as the development of new estimation methods based on simulation techniques. An important implication of the approach is that it can be used as an early warning signal of future crises, thereby providing an input into the design of future policy on crisis management.Read moreRead less
Fiscal policy and unemployment in an open economy. This project aims to improve our understanding of the impact of commodity price changes. Over the past two decades, Australia has experienced unprecedented fluctuations in commodity prices. The fiscal position and potential of the economy depends on the extent to which commodity price changes are temporary or permanent. This project will uncover empirical regularities between commodity prices, unemployment across sectors and measures of fiscal p ....Fiscal policy and unemployment in an open economy. This project aims to improve our understanding of the impact of commodity price changes. Over the past two decades, Australia has experienced unprecedented fluctuations in commodity prices. The fiscal position and potential of the economy depends on the extent to which commodity price changes are temporary or permanent. This project will uncover empirical regularities between commodity prices, unemployment across sectors and measures of fiscal policy. The project will build structural models of unemployment which will be estimated and used to assess implications for unemployment and budget deficits of commodity price shocks and to study the optimal design of fiscal policy. The project will benefit the conduct of economic policy in Australia.Read moreRead less