Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation ....International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation of foreign currency) on individual economies. The project will determine the appropriate domestic monetary policy response to such shocks, and the potential for forecasting both the advent of such shocks and their impact on individual economies.Read moreRead less
A New Economic History of Australia. Australia is at a cross-roads. After almost a century of protectionism we have globally re-integrated and liberalised, as we were when we possessed the world's highest standard of living in the nineteenth century. But we have yet to truly rebuild our capability to compete well in a global knowledge economy and to do so sustainably and justly. It is the presumption of this Project that a new understanding of the role of human investment in our history can hel ....A New Economic History of Australia. Australia is at a cross-roads. After almost a century of protectionism we have globally re-integrated and liberalised, as we were when we possessed the world's highest standard of living in the nineteenth century. But we have yet to truly rebuild our capability to compete well in a global knowledge economy and to do so sustainably and justly. It is the presumption of this Project that a new understanding of the role of human investment in our history can help underpin a clearer understanding of the policy imperatives for our future. The Project will lead to an explicit and detailed policy agenda for re-shaping Australia's future so as to be again a clever country.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
MONETARY POLICY WITH LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKETS. Modern monetary policy seeks to influence domestic macroeconomic outcomes, using actions in official Government debt markets. The effectiveness of this route is being challenged by reductions in the level of Government debt outstanding. Monetary policy is faced with the possibility of operating in alternative financial markets. The project will:
* Examine alternative markets for monetary policy operation.
* Examine the effect ....MONETARY POLICY WITH LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKETS. Modern monetary policy seeks to influence domestic macroeconomic outcomes, using actions in official Government debt markets. The effectiveness of this route is being challenged by reductions in the level of Government debt outstanding. Monetary policy is faced with the possibility of operating in alternative financial markets. The project will:
* Examine alternative markets for monetary policy operation.
* Examine the effects of alternatives on real economy outcomes.
* Develop a model of the economy which controls for global financial conditions - which has not been done before.
* Combine modern econometric techniques.
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Securitised Real Estate and Private Dwellings: International and Domestic Linkages and Implications for the Macroeconomy. Cycles in the housing market and its interaction with other economic and financial market variables may have enormous effects on the Australian economy. Despite this there is little research on the interactions between housing and the macroeconomy. This project examines these issues. The implications of the research extend to three broad areas. The first is monetary policy by ....Securitised Real Estate and Private Dwellings: International and Domestic Linkages and Implications for the Macroeconomy. Cycles in the housing market and its interaction with other economic and financial market variables may have enormous effects on the Australian economy. Despite this there is little research on the interactions between housing and the macroeconomy. This project examines these issues. The implications of the research extend to three broad areas. The first is monetary policy by understanding housing prices, inflation and interest rates linkages. Second, constructing formal models including housing may provide a means of testing the implications of policies such as the first home owner grant or reductions in housing specific taxes. Finally, financial markets may benefit by understanding of the role of property in a diversified portfolio.Read moreRead less
The architecture of networks: Characterisation and visualisation of complex systems as fluctuating networks. Complex systems comprise many mutually interacting components, characterised by a range of different interactions over time and space. They are dynamical systems, whose features are reminiscent of a web, with fluctuating links of varying strengths. The natural paradigm for such systems is a generic network, or a graph. A suite of novel measures from statistical physics, graph theory, top ....The architecture of networks: Characterisation and visualisation of complex systems as fluctuating networks. Complex systems comprise many mutually interacting components, characterised by a range of different interactions over time and space. They are dynamical systems, whose features are reminiscent of a web, with fluctuating links of varying strengths. The natural paradigm for such systems is a generic network, or a graph. A suite of novel measures from statistical physics, graph theory, topology, geometry, and computer graphics will be developed to characterise system/graph growth and stability. The aim is two-fold: first to reduce real complex systems (mainly financial systems) to computationally manageable structures (including direct visualisation) and second to construct realistic models of the evolution of such systems.Read moreRead less
Energy Efficiency Innovation, Diffusion and the Rebound Effect. This project aims to help quantify the net energy saved globally from energy efficiency policies and programs. It aims to investigate the speed at which energy efficiency innovations spread to countries across the world from technologically leading countries and to measure empirically the size of the rebound effect that offsets energy efficiency improvements at the economy-wide level. Governments and international organisations are ....Energy Efficiency Innovation, Diffusion and the Rebound Effect. This project aims to help quantify the net energy saved globally from energy efficiency policies and programs. It aims to investigate the speed at which energy efficiency innovations spread to countries across the world from technologically leading countries and to measure empirically the size of the rebound effect that offsets energy efficiency improvements at the economy-wide level. Governments and international organisations are increasingly looking to energy efficiency policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy security, but there is little information on the potential for these policies to actually save energy and, therefore, reduce emissions. Project results may help in the design of cost-effective energy and climate policies.Read moreRead less
An economic analysis of local content requirements in radio broadcasting: a model and an empirical investigation of the Australian experience. How much local music should radio stations be required to play? Twenty per cent? Thirty per cent? As much or as little as they wish? Who benefits from such schemes? Local musicians? International record companies? Who is hurt? Radio stations? The listening public? By better understanding the effects of local content quotas on radio broadcasters (an ....An economic analysis of local content requirements in radio broadcasting: a model and an empirical investigation of the Australian experience. How much local music should radio stations be required to play? Twenty per cent? Thirty per cent? As much or as little as they wish? Who benefits from such schemes? Local musicians? International record companies? Who is hurt? Radio stations? The listening public? By better understanding the effects of local content quotas on radio broadcasters (and the ways in which they lead to those effects) and by being aware of the actual consequences of the Australian scheme (and, potentially, those of other countries) we can better answer these sorts of questions. Gaining such understanding is the goal of this research. Read moreRead less