Water availability, evaporative demand and climate change. Water availability is the balance between supply (i.e., rainfall) and evaporative demand. Rainfall is well studied but evaporative demand is not. The scientifically useful measure of evaporative demand is the rate of evaporation of water from a metal pan - called pan evaporation. Worldwide measurements show decreasing pan evaporation rate over the last 30-50 years. This project will for the first time make a detailed study of that phenom ....Water availability, evaporative demand and climate change. Water availability is the balance between supply (i.e., rainfall) and evaporative demand. Rainfall is well studied but evaporative demand is not. The scientifically useful measure of evaporative demand is the rate of evaporation of water from a metal pan - called pan evaporation. Worldwide measurements show decreasing pan evaporation rate over the last 30-50 years. This project will for the first time make a detailed study of that phenomenon using a new purpose-built evaporation pan. This will result in better information and policy advice about changes in water availability with climate change.Read moreRead less
An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with differen ....An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with different mechanisms being represented through different models in a probabilistic sense. We expect our approach to address the limitations of current schemes, and provide a much improved basis for estimating flows for design and management applications.Read moreRead less
Tree water use, bushfires, and the implications for urban and rural water supplies. After bushfires, regrowing trees in catchments may use water much faster than before the fire. This project will develop simple tests for whether this is the case for a particular area of forest, and why, and how such effects can be incorporated in planning for rural and urban water supplies.
Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems. This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the resu ....Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems. This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the results from this project will advance uncertainty analysis in hydrology and help understand how different types of data and information can inform model characterisation. This will be useful in providing vital information on the attributes and extent of uncertainty to inform water resources analysis, management and decision making.Read moreRead less
Stable water isotopic simulation and analysis to improve Earth System models and deliver better predictions of Australian water resource vulnerability. As Australia's challenges in environmental sustainability rival those anywhere on Earth, we must be clever in our diagnosis of susceptibility and insightful in proposed remedies. Climate change and variability have impacts on people and society that must be managed effectively whatever their causes. Of importance to Australia is the availabilit ....Stable water isotopic simulation and analysis to improve Earth System models and deliver better predictions of Australian water resource vulnerability. As Australia's challenges in environmental sustainability rival those anywhere on Earth, we must be clever in our diagnosis of susceptibility and insightful in proposed remedies. Climate change and variability have impacts on people and society that must be managed effectively whatever their causes. Of importance to Australia is the availability of water for drinking and agriculture. The new, interdisciplinary ARC network for Earth System Science provides models for novel and synergistic research such as naturally occurring water isotopes as a tool for improving predictive skill and confidence. We exploit these and leverage international programs to improve regional hydro-climate and water resource understanding in Australia.Read moreRead less
An integrated investigation of nutrient generation and delivery processes and pathways from paddock to small catchment scales. Improving water quality, primarily through reducing nutrient concentrations, remains a massive challenge for effective catchment management in Australia. Through a multidisciplinary approach including soil science, hydrology and aquatic chemistry, this project will develop an integrated catchment system understanding of water quality behaviour. This understanding will ....An integrated investigation of nutrient generation and delivery processes and pathways from paddock to small catchment scales. Improving water quality, primarily through reducing nutrient concentrations, remains a massive challenge for effective catchment management in Australia. Through a multidisciplinary approach including soil science, hydrology and aquatic chemistry, this project will develop an integrated catchment system understanding of water quality behaviour. This understanding will greatly improve the scientific underpinning of catchment water quality management and prediction, thus supporting improvements in the sustainability of Australia's water management. The work will focus on catchments with high intensity livestock grazing, which tend to be located in high rainfall areas near coasts where significant issues of water quality management exist.Read moreRead less
A study of China’s south to north water transfer project. This project aims to investigate the motives, processes, and socio-political and hydrological consequences of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) in China, the world’s largest inter-basin water network. It connects four major river basins, six provinces, three megacities and over 700 million people. This project will analyse the SNWT's governance regime; its effects on local and regional flows of water, money, people, pollutants, produc ....A study of China’s south to north water transfer project. This project aims to investigate the motives, processes, and socio-political and hydrological consequences of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) in China, the world’s largest inter-basin water network. It connects four major river basins, six provinces, three megacities and over 700 million people. This project will analyse the SNWT's governance regime; its effects on local and regional flows of water, money, people, pollutants, production and political authority; and the interactions between these systemic and local changes. This project expects to produce knowledge about the politics of vast technologies, and the management of inter-basin water schemes in Australia and globally.Read moreRead less
MoistureMonitor: A multi-mission soil moisture monitoring system for a water limited future. A long-term soil moisture record for Australia is critical to understanding climate change feedback mechanisms and their impacts on water management. This project will validate, downscale and harmonise soil moisture retrievals from three satellite missions across this decade, each using a new and different low resolution antenna technology and interpretation approach. Moisture Monitor, the framework to d ....MoistureMonitor: A multi-mission soil moisture monitoring system for a water limited future. A long-term soil moisture record for Australia is critical to understanding climate change feedback mechanisms and their impacts on water management. This project will validate, downscale and harmonise soil moisture retrievals from three satellite missions across this decade, each using a new and different low resolution antenna technology and interpretation approach. Moisture Monitor, the framework to deliver this soil moisture record, will be verified using airborne campaigns and hydrological monitoring infrastructure in the Murrumbidgee catchment. Important outcomes will be validation of a new soil moisture satellite and development of a high resolution soil moisture product for improved land and water management and policy for Australia.Read moreRead less
A new strategy for design flood estimation in a nonstationary climate. Evidence suggests that global warming will result in an increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of heavy rainfall, leading to flooding with potentially devastating consequences. This study provides a renewed focus on design flood estimation that takes into account a changing climate where assumptions of stationarity are no longer tenable.
Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture bud ....Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture budgets between Australia and Antarctica based on a novel, 1000-year length reconstruction of moisture-bearing southern Indian Ocean storms. This new information is critically needed by water managers so that they can properly calculate (and ultimately prepare for) the worst of Australia’s rainfall-related risks.Read moreRead less