Reimagining the Australian Suburb: Biodiversity planning in urban fringe landscapes. Over 40% of nationally listed threatened ecological communities occur in urban areas. Accelerating urbanisation in Australia is considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. This threat will increase without a more strategic approach to conservation planning in urban environments. Protection of biodiversity in urban areas brings numerous societal benefits but involves complicated tradeoffs between com ....Reimagining the Australian Suburb: Biodiversity planning in urban fringe landscapes. Over 40% of nationally listed threatened ecological communities occur in urban areas. Accelerating urbanisation in Australia is considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. This threat will increase without a more strategic approach to conservation planning in urban environments. Protection of biodiversity in urban areas brings numerous societal benefits but involves complicated tradeoffs between competing land uses including housing development, agricultural production and conservation. This project builds on recent advancements in ecological modelling and mathematical optimisation to develop and test tools to facilitate transparent decisions based on optimal trade-offs between competing values. It will result in a more strategic approach to planning conservation in urban environments.Read moreRead less
Practical, powerful and cost effective indicators of sustainable forest management for the conservation of biological diversity. Much debate about appropriate use of Australia's forests stems from uncertainty about the magnitude of impacts on abundances and distributions of forest-dependent species, a key indicator of sustainable management under the Montreal Process. An opportunity exists to develop new tools to substantially improve our ability to detect and assess change. This project will de ....Practical, powerful and cost effective indicators of sustainable forest management for the conservation of biological diversity. Much debate about appropriate use of Australia's forests stems from uncertainty about the magnitude of impacts on abundances and distributions of forest-dependent species, a key indicator of sustainable management under the Montreal Process. An opportunity exists to develop new tools to substantially improve our ability to detect and assess change. This project will develop optimal monitoring design and analysis strategies for detecting population trends against a background of natural fluctuation and observation error. It will result in templates for coherent reporting on indicators at regional and national levels. It will exploit recent findings regarding observation error in surveys, advances in statistical control processes, simulation methods, and power analysis to develop a world-class species monitoring system.Read moreRead less
Web Services Reputation Management. This project directly supports the National Research Priority 4: Safeguarding Australia. More specifically, it aims at creating mechanisms that will make it more difficult to use the Internet as a platform for launching attacks against the business processes of Australian organisations that provide and consume Web services. At the same time this will stimulate the establishment of high quality WS markets. As direct social benefit of this research, Australian o ....Web Services Reputation Management. This project directly supports the National Research Priority 4: Safeguarding Australia. More specifically, it aims at creating mechanisms that will make it more difficult to use the Internet as a platform for launching attacks against the business processes of Australian organisations that provide and consume Web services. At the same time this will stimulate the establishment of high quality WS markets. As direct social benefit of this research, Australian organisations will be able to integrate the best quality Web services as part of their business processes, and thereby avoid being negatively impacted by low quality and deceptive Web services. Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient pr ....Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient products for trading and risk management if they are priced correctly. This project will benefit investors by providing empirically viable models that will be able to be easily implemented to provide accurate and fast pricing solutions.Read moreRead less
Risk Measurement for Large Portfolios under the Benchmark Approach. The measurement of risk for large portfolios, consisting of basic assets and derivatives, will play a key role in future risk management systems. Based on a new characterization of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulat ....Risk Measurement for Large Portfolios under the Benchmark Approach. The measurement of risk for large portfolios, consisting of basic assets and derivatives, will play a key role in future risk management systems. Based on a new characterization of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulation methods will demonstrate their superiority. The outcomes of this project will give the Australian industry and the industry partner a competitive advantage in the measurement and management of risk for large portfolios as superannuation funds or portfolios of banks.Read moreRead less
Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital pati ....Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital patient flows. Furthermore, they will employ statistical process control methodologies to the problem of recognising and responding to changes in the flows, so that performance objectives are met. In doing this, they will give health service managers and clinicians a significant advantage in deciding how best to manage a constrained resource to maximize access, throughput and patient outcomes.Read moreRead less
Improved Management of Australian Port Infrastructure by Development of Predictive Ageing Simulation. Exposure of built infrastructure to corrosive marine conditions causes deterioration and reduced service life. Asset managers lack predictive models of in-service durability. Using data gathered from Australian ports, life-cycle predictions will be developed, simulating durability and incorporating geographical location, structure type, composition, and levels of maintenance. The modelling has ....Improved Management of Australian Port Infrastructure by Development of Predictive Ageing Simulation. Exposure of built infrastructure to corrosive marine conditions causes deterioration and reduced service life. Asset managers lack predictive models of in-service durability. Using data gathered from Australian ports, life-cycle predictions will be developed, simulating durability and incorporating geographical location, structure type, composition, and levels of maintenance. The modelling has not been undertaken on Australian port assets, whereas international models reflect very different infrastructure and exposures and are based on simpler 2D conditions that do not simulate actual deterioration. The three-dimensional (3D) modelling and graphics will be unique worldwide, providing decision support for construction and maintenance.Read moreRead less
Ecological-epidemiological models of feral swamp buffalo control in northern Australia. This research is locally, nationally and internationally significant because it 1) improves the capacity of the Northern Territory and its traditional aboriginal owners to manage together this prevalent species in an effort to minimise disturbance to native flora and fauna and to understand the long-term implications of continued proliferation, 2) provides a nationally relevant system to monitor and project t ....Ecological-epidemiological models of feral swamp buffalo control in northern Australia. This research is locally, nationally and internationally significant because it 1) improves the capacity of the Northern Territory and its traditional aboriginal owners to manage together this prevalent species in an effort to minimise disturbance to native flora and fauna and to understand the long-term implications of continued proliferation, 2) provides a nationally relevant system to monitor and project the spread of disease through feral animal populations in Australia, and 3) combines quantitative data and robust analytical tools that can be used as a template for solving many broad-scale feral animal problems around the world.Read moreRead less
Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually updat ....Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually update estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes of interest such as the winner of the match and the margin of victory. The project will assist Champion in their strategic aim to provide an on line form guide.Read moreRead less