Web Services Reputation Management. This project directly supports the National Research Priority 4: Safeguarding Australia. More specifically, it aims at creating mechanisms that will make it more difficult to use the Internet as a platform for launching attacks against the business processes of Australian organisations that provide and consume Web services. At the same time this will stimulate the establishment of high quality WS markets. As direct social benefit of this research, Australian o ....Web Services Reputation Management. This project directly supports the National Research Priority 4: Safeguarding Australia. More specifically, it aims at creating mechanisms that will make it more difficult to use the Internet as a platform for launching attacks against the business processes of Australian organisations that provide and consume Web services. At the same time this will stimulate the establishment of high quality WS markets. As direct social benefit of this research, Australian organisations will be able to integrate the best quality Web services as part of their business processes, and thereby avoid being negatively impacted by low quality and deceptive Web services. Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient pr ....Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient products for trading and risk management if they are priced correctly. This project will benefit investors by providing empirically viable models that will be able to be easily implemented to provide accurate and fast pricing solutions.Read moreRead less
Risk Measurement for Large Portfolios under the Benchmark Approach. The measurement of risk for large portfolios, consisting of basic assets and derivatives, will play a key role in future risk management systems. Based on a new characterization of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulat ....Risk Measurement for Large Portfolios under the Benchmark Approach. The measurement of risk for large portfolios, consisting of basic assets and derivatives, will play a key role in future risk management systems. Based on a new characterization of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulation methods will demonstrate their superiority. The outcomes of this project will give the Australian industry and the industry partner a competitive advantage in the measurement and management of risk for large portfolios as superannuation funds or portfolios of banks.Read moreRead less
Improved Management of Australian Port Infrastructure by Development of Predictive Ageing Simulation. Exposure of built infrastructure to corrosive marine conditions causes deterioration and reduced service life. Asset managers lack predictive models of in-service durability. Using data gathered from Australian ports, life-cycle predictions will be developed, simulating durability and incorporating geographical location, structure type, composition, and levels of maintenance. The modelling has ....Improved Management of Australian Port Infrastructure by Development of Predictive Ageing Simulation. Exposure of built infrastructure to corrosive marine conditions causes deterioration and reduced service life. Asset managers lack predictive models of in-service durability. Using data gathered from Australian ports, life-cycle predictions will be developed, simulating durability and incorporating geographical location, structure type, composition, and levels of maintenance. The modelling has not been undertaken on Australian port assets, whereas international models reflect very different infrastructure and exposures and are based on simpler 2D conditions that do not simulate actual deterioration. The three-dimensional (3D) modelling and graphics will be unique worldwide, providing decision support for construction and maintenance.Read moreRead less
Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
A Mathematical Approach to Flexible Management of Open Pit Mines with Uncertain Geology and Unpredictable Demand. This project will create new mathematical algorithms to flexibly manage open pit mining projects. The development of strategic plans for mining operations is a highly complex task, based on incomplete geological information and uncertain future commodity demand. The smart mathematics we create will allow Australia to capitalise on upturns in international demand, while limiting unavo ....A Mathematical Approach to Flexible Management of Open Pit Mines with Uncertain Geology and Unpredictable Demand. This project will create new mathematical algorithms to flexibly manage open pit mining projects. The development of strategic plans for mining operations is a highly complex task, based on incomplete geological information and uncertain future commodity demand. The smart mathematics we create will allow Australia to capitalise on upturns in international demand, while limiting unavoidable negative outcomes, by flexibly adjusting the mining operation to prevailing geological and economic conditions. Australia's mineral exports are worth over $50b annually to the Australian economy. Our techniques will better manage Australia's mining projects and capture new, emerging markets, significantly impacting on Australia's balance of trade.Read moreRead less
New models and valuation methods for portfolio credit derivatives. Portfolio credit derivatives provide a mechanism to simultaneously transfer credit exposures to a large number of counterparties within a single transaction. However, no generally accepted valuation model for such credit portfolios is currently available. This project aims to develop new mathematically-based technologies to allow institutions such as Westpac (the Industry Partner) to optimally manage their credit exposures. The o ....New models and valuation methods for portfolio credit derivatives. Portfolio credit derivatives provide a mechanism to simultaneously transfer credit exposures to a large number of counterparties within a single transaction. However, no generally accepted valuation model for such credit portfolios is currently available. This project aims to develop new mathematically-based technologies to allow institutions such as Westpac (the Industry Partner) to optimally manage their credit exposures. The outcome will be a class of superior models and operational risk management tools that will ensure the value and risks of these transactions are properly understood and accurately quantified. These models will enhance both the knowledge base of the industry and academic scholarship.
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The Pricing and Hedging of Multi-Factor Multi-Commodity Based Swing Options. The partner organisation, an Australian based company, is a leading global player in providing risk management solutions to energy corporations world-wide. The advances of the project will help it to enhance Australia's role as a provider of practical implementation of the most recent academic advances in the area of risk management technology.