Stein's method for probability approximation. Data of counts in time, such as incoming calls in telecommunications and the clusters of palindromes in a family of herpes-virus genomes, arise in an extraordinarily diverse range of fields from science to business. These problems can be modelled by sums of random variables taking values 0 and 1 in probability theory, thus permitting approximate calculations which are often good enough in practice. This project will obtain such approximate solutions ....Stein's method for probability approximation. Data of counts in time, such as incoming calls in telecommunications and the clusters of palindromes in a family of herpes-virus genomes, arise in an extraordinarily diverse range of fields from science to business. These problems can be modelled by sums of random variables taking values 0 and 1 in probability theory, thus permitting approximate calculations which are often good enough in practice. This project will obtain such approximate solutions and estimate the errors involved. Applications include analysis of data in insurance, finance, flood prediction in hydrology.Read moreRead less
New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticip ....New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticipated outcomes of this project will be detailed knowledge of extremal behaviour in portfolios, improved methods for calibrating risk, advances in non-parametric methods in finance, a prototype practitioner toolkit for assessing risk, and high-calibre graduates to contribute to Australia's research capacity.Read moreRead less
The astrophysical stochastic background of gravitational waves and detection by advanced high optical power interferometers: an Australia-US collaboration. The proposed project is designed to enable one of the most exciting and least studied components of the gravitational wave spectrum, the Astrophysical Gravitational wave Background (AGB), to be detected by Advanced LIGO. It will extend the Australia-US collaboration in Advanced LIGO to include modeling, simulation and detection methods of the ....The astrophysical stochastic background of gravitational waves and detection by advanced high optical power interferometers: an Australia-US collaboration. The proposed project is designed to enable one of the most exciting and least studied components of the gravitational wave spectrum, the Astrophysical Gravitational wave Background (AGB), to be detected by Advanced LIGO. It will extend the Australia-US collaboration in Advanced LIGO to include modeling, simulation and detection methods of the AGB and the study of the optical noise in LIGO and Advanced LIGO type systems. In particular we plan to search for anomalous noise sources and, especially those arising in high optical power cavities that could limit detection of the AGB.Read moreRead less
Dynamic Asset Pricing and Portfolio Decision Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning. The outcomes of this project will provide two benefits to Australian financial market researchers in academe, in industry and financial market regulators. First, a better theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding and analysing optimal portfolio decision rules in a setting that captures many realistic features of market behaviour such as heterogeneity of investor types and adapt ....Dynamic Asset Pricing and Portfolio Decision Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning. The outcomes of this project will provide two benefits to Australian financial market researchers in academe, in industry and financial market regulators. First, a better theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding and analysing optimal portfolio decision rules in a setting that captures many realistic features of market behaviour such as heterogeneity of investor types and adaptive behaviour by market participants. Second, new tools to more effectively understand and manage portfolio risk in financial markets. Consequently Australia will have a more efficient and competitive financial system. It also has the potential to lead to the development of more finance related industries such as financial market software.Read moreRead less
The evolution of dispersal on range edges. The rate at which an invasive species spreads, and the ability of a native species to adapt to environmental change, are both contingent on the dispersal ability of the species. Dispersal ability, however, evolves rapidly on the edge of a species' range. The rapid evolution of dispersal, therefore, determines the eventual range-limits of invasive species, as well as of native species responding to changing conditions. This research will provide tools ....The evolution of dispersal on range edges. The rate at which an invasive species spreads, and the ability of a native species to adapt to environmental change, are both contingent on the dispersal ability of the species. Dispersal ability, however, evolves rapidly on the edge of a species' range. The rapid evolution of dispersal, therefore, determines the eventual range-limits of invasive species, as well as of native species responding to changing conditions. This research will provide tools with which to predict the direction and rate of dispersal evolution on range-edges. The results of this work will, thus, massively facilitate management of invasive species and climate change.Read moreRead less
Disperse or die: the evolution of dispersal ability in a changing climate. Whether or not climate change will affect a species depends upon the ability of ecological communities to track climate change. Species that rapidly shift their range in response to climate change will not be unduly affected, whereas species that are stuck in one place are at extreme risk from a changing climate (they must either adapt, or perish). We need, therefore, a firm understanding of how, and how rapidly, specie ....Disperse or die: the evolution of dispersal ability in a changing climate. Whether or not climate change will affect a species depends upon the ability of ecological communities to track climate change. Species that rapidly shift their range in response to climate change will not be unduly affected, whereas species that are stuck in one place are at extreme risk from a changing climate (they must either adapt, or perish). We need, therefore, a firm understanding of how, and how rapidly, species shift their range. This project will develop a universal framework within which to model species' responses to climate change. As such, the project will contribute greatly to how we plan for, and manage, the effects of climate change.Read moreRead less
Joint System Identification for Point Processes and Time-series. In various application areas such as neurophysiology, earthquake modeling, price spikes in electricity markets, the data of interest are point processes (aka sequences of events) or combinations of point processes and analog signals. To understand the underlying subject of interest we need to be able to extract the maximum information from these observation sequences. The current tools for doing this are very limited. This resear ....Joint System Identification for Point Processes and Time-series. In various application areas such as neurophysiology, earthquake modeling, price spikes in electricity markets, the data of interest are point processes (aka sequences of events) or combinations of point processes and analog signals. To understand the underlying subject of interest we need to be able to extract the maximum information from these observation sequences. The current tools for doing this are very limited. This research program will develop the complex signal processing and system methodology needed to create a suitable tool set.Read moreRead less
Efficient Algorithms for Multiple Object Filtering using Stochastic Geometry. The outcomes of this project will enhance our ability to harness advances in sensing and computing technologies and develop automated systems which facilitate rapid and reliable detection and monitoring of potential threats in our air, sea, and land space. Such systems assist our defence personnel in the event of a threat to implement measured and effective responses, and ultimately enhance Australia's operational adva ....Efficient Algorithms for Multiple Object Filtering using Stochastic Geometry. The outcomes of this project will enhance our ability to harness advances in sensing and computing technologies and develop automated systems which facilitate rapid and reliable detection and monitoring of potential threats in our air, sea, and land space. Such systems assist our defence personnel in the event of a threat to implement measured and effective responses, and ultimately enhance Australia's operational advantage, in line with the national research priority of 'Safeguarding Australia' and its associated priority goals. The developed technologies also have significant commercial potential which benefit Australian industries in areas such as robotics, automotive safety and biomedical engineering.Read moreRead less
Multi-Group Stochastic Modelling of Population Balance for Gas-Liquid Flows. Multiphase flow systems are encountered in many process industries such as chemical, petroleum, mining, nuclear, energy, food and pharmaceutical, which are fundamental to the Australian economy. Commercially available computer codes for simulating such systems are currently widely used in many Australian industrial sectors. This research project will address the prevalent deficiency in many of these computer codes and ....Multi-Group Stochastic Modelling of Population Balance for Gas-Liquid Flows. Multiphase flow systems are encountered in many process industries such as chemical, petroleum, mining, nuclear, energy, food and pharmaceutical, which are fundamental to the Australian economy. Commercially available computer codes for simulating such systems are currently widely used in many Australian industrial sectors. This research project will address the prevalent deficiency in many of these computer codes and develop new models capable of predicting a wide range of industrial bubbly flow problems. The resultant improved computer codes will provide industries with significant benefits and, in particular, reduce times and costs in their design and production. Read moreRead less
Modelling, forecasting, and control for econometrics based on generalized dynamic factor models: a system theoretic approach. The project will provide a tool that will assist organizations wishing to understand the dynamics of a national economy to model it, and to forecast future econometric time series values. Such ability will provide another tool to econometric managers, including the Reserve Bank , Treasury and fund managers, that should benefit the Australian nation.