Improving Productivity and Efficiency of Australian Airports – A Real Time Analytics and Statistical Approach. Aviation is a major economic driver both within Australia and overseas, but the aviation industry faces growing challenges from the increase in passengers and changing regulations. To meet these challenges, airports, airlines, government agencies and others need to maximise their efficiency and productivity; however, complex dependencies and differing operational objectives complicate t ....Improving Productivity and Efficiency of Australian Airports – A Real Time Analytics and Statistical Approach. Aviation is a major economic driver both within Australia and overseas, but the aviation industry faces growing challenges from the increase in passengers and changing regulations. To meet these challenges, airports, airlines, government agencies and others need to maximise their efficiency and productivity; however, complex dependencies and differing operational objectives complicate this task. This project aims to develop a real-time, whole-of-system operational performance framework that can help operators in finding and evaluating solutions to maximise throughput, reduce wait times and mitigate flow-on effects. Innovative new video analytic and Bayesian Network based tools are integrated to address the challenges of adaptability and uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable mode ....Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable modelled small-area estimates to be released without compromising confidentiality. The expected outcomes include new statistical knowledge and new insights into cancer. The results will benefit the many disciplines, managers and policy makers that make decisions based on geographic data mapped over space and time. Read moreRead less
Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital pati ....Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital patient flows. Furthermore, they will employ statistical process control methodologies to the problem of recognising and responding to changes in the flows, so that performance objectives are met. In doing this, they will give health service managers and clinicians a significant advantage in deciding how best to manage a constrained resource to maximize access, throughput and patient outcomes.Read moreRead less
Revolutionising water-quality monitoring in the information age. In today’s information age, automated low-cost sensors distributed in the environment have the potential to revolutionise the way we monitor and manage air, water and soil. This project aims to develop novel statistical methods to detect anomalies in the data generated from these in-situ sensors with computationally efficient modelling on river networks through space and time, with the applied goals of automating anomaly detection ....Revolutionising water-quality monitoring in the information age. In today’s information age, automated low-cost sensors distributed in the environment have the potential to revolutionise the way we monitor and manage air, water and soil. This project aims to develop novel statistical methods to detect anomalies in the data generated from these in-situ sensors with computationally efficient modelling on river networks through space and time, with the applied goals of automating anomaly detection in water-quality data and generating predictions of sediment and nutrient concentrations throughout river networks in near-real time. This will represent a fundamental increase in scientific knowledge, which will be immediately useful in the domains of aquatic science, environmental monitoring, and statistics.Read moreRead less
Rating and ranking sports players and teams using minimum message length. All sorts of games and sports could use better systems for rating and ranking teams. This is as true in sports-mad Australia as any other country. Improved and more accessible rating systems across a variety of activities should encourage the general public to take a greater interest in the mathematics, statistics, information theory and machine learning behind the systems. With Cadability as our Australia-based interna ....Rating and ranking sports players and teams using minimum message length. All sorts of games and sports could use better systems for rating and ranking teams. This is as true in sports-mad Australia as any other country. Improved and more accessible rating systems across a variety of activities should encourage the general public to take a greater interest in the mathematics, statistics, information theory and machine learning behind the systems. With Cadability as our Australia-based international industry partner, the global use of these systems will be to Australia's economic advantage. Having a more accurate rating system which is wider-reaching both in the number of sports and games and the number of participants per sport and game should also encourage greater participation from the general public.Read moreRead less
Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually updat ....Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually update estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes of interest such as the winner of the match and the margin of victory. The project will assist Champion in their strategic aim to provide an on line form guide.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Modeling Healthcare Systems. An efficient healthcare system is essential for the well-being of any society. The aim of the project is to develop major advances in the mathematical modelling of healthcare systems, in order to improve efficiency, and ultimately, patient health. The first expected outcome is the development of mathematical models that constitute a high-level description of patient flow through hospitals and subacute care, so that demands for emergency and elective capacity are met ....Modeling Healthcare Systems. An efficient healthcare system is essential for the well-being of any society. The aim of the project is to develop major advances in the mathematical modelling of healthcare systems, in order to improve efficiency, and ultimately, patient health. The first expected outcome is the development of mathematical models that constitute a high-level description of patient flow through hospitals and subacute care, so that demands for emergency and elective capacity are met given limited resources. The second is the development of a bed allocation algorithm that allocates patients to appropriate wards, so as to optimise the set of performance indicators of the system under appropriate constraints, given the current ward occupancy.Read moreRead less
Intruder alert! detecting and classifying events in noisy time series. This project aims to address the mathematical challenges in automated early detection and classification of intrusion events in noisy time series generated from perimeter security systems. The project expects to develop robust methods to detect intrusion events under different operating environments while ignoring nuisance events. The project will boost the global competitiveness of the Australian security industry, and enabl ....Intruder alert! detecting and classifying events in noisy time series. This project aims to address the mathematical challenges in automated early detection and classification of intrusion events in noisy time series generated from perimeter security systems. The project expects to develop robust methods to detect intrusion events under different operating environments while ignoring nuisance events. The project will boost the global competitiveness of the Australian security industry, and enable improved event detection and classification in noisy time series to the benefit of many critical application areas beyond national security.Read moreRead less
Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less