ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers of Big Data, Big Models, New Insights. In today's world, massive amounts of data in a variety of forms are collected daily from a multitude of sources. Many of the resulting data sets have the potential to make vital contributions to society, business and government, as well as impact on international developments, but are so large or complex that they are difficult to process and analyse using traditional tools. The aim of this ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers of Big Data, Big Models, New Insights. In today's world, massive amounts of data in a variety of forms are collected daily from a multitude of sources. Many of the resulting data sets have the potential to make vital contributions to society, business and government, as well as impact on international developments, but are so large or complex that they are difficult to process and analyse using traditional tools. The aim of this Centre is to create innovative mathematical and statistical models that can uncover the knowledge concealed within the size and complexity of these big data sets, with a focus on using the models to deliver insight into problems vital to the Centre's Collaborative Domains: Healthy People, Sustainable Environments and Prosperous Societies.Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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Uncertainty, Risk and Related Concepts in Machine Learning. Machine learning is the science of making sense of data. It does not and cannot remove all risk and uncertainty. This project proposes to study the foundations of how machine learning uses, represents and communicates risk and uncertainty. It aims to do so by finding new theoretical connections between diverse notions that have arisen in allied disciplines. These include risk, uncertainty, scoring rules and loss functions, divergences, ....Uncertainty, Risk and Related Concepts in Machine Learning. Machine learning is the science of making sense of data. It does not and cannot remove all risk and uncertainty. This project proposes to study the foundations of how machine learning uses, represents and communicates risk and uncertainty. It aims to do so by finding new theoretical connections between diverse notions that have arisen in allied disciplines. These include risk, uncertainty, scoring rules and loss functions, divergences, statistics and different ways of aggregating information. By building a more complete theoretical map it is expected that new machine learning methods will be developed, but more importantly that machine learning will be able to be better integrated into larger socio-technical systems.Read moreRead less
Building models for complex data. The purpose of this project is to better understand the process of building statistical models and construct new methods for building models for particular kinds of complex data. The expected outcomes include a new way of thinking about model building and practical tools which together enable us to get more value out of analysing complex data.
Frontiers in inference about risk. The project aims to develop new methods for robust risk evaluation and minimisation under various constraints and scenarios. Risk evaluation, estimation and prediction using past data is a central activity in diverse areas such as finance, insurance, superannuation and environmental regulation. The project aims to propose and solve innovatively robust risk optimisation problems under constraints, taking into account the time dynamics. Applications include risk ....Frontiers in inference about risk. The project aims to develop new methods for robust risk evaluation and minimisation under various constraints and scenarios. Risk evaluation, estimation and prediction using past data is a central activity in diverse areas such as finance, insurance, superannuation and environmental regulation. The project aims to propose and solve innovatively robust risk optimisation problems under constraints, taking into account the time dynamics. Applications include risk management around natural catastrophes and long-term asset investment of pension funds. The solutions and outcomes are expected to deliver optimal resource allocation proposals and better management of risk exposure in practice.Read moreRead less
Prediction, inference and their application to modelling correlated data. This project aims to create new, improved methods for prediction and making inference about predictions for a variety of correlated data types through inventing sophisticated and novel resampling schemes such as the generalised fast bootstrap and repeated partial permutation. The research will impact on both the theory and practice of statistics and on substantive fields which use mixed or compositional models to analyse d ....Prediction, inference and their application to modelling correlated data. This project aims to create new, improved methods for prediction and making inference about predictions for a variety of correlated data types through inventing sophisticated and novel resampling schemes such as the generalised fast bootstrap and repeated partial permutation. The research will impact on both the theory and practice of statistics and on substantive fields which use mixed or compositional models to analyse dependent data. This will be a significant improvement in the assessment and stability of statistical models in areas such as social, ecological and geological sciences.Read moreRead less
Dimension reduction and model selection for statistically challenging data. This project aims to develop a deep theoretical understanding of the relationship between various dimension reduction and model selection methods used in statistical model building, and then use this understanding to develop new, improved methods of model building for statistically challenging data. The research will impact on both the theory and practice of statistics, and on substantive fields which collect and analyse ....Dimension reduction and model selection for statistically challenging data. This project aims to develop a deep theoretical understanding of the relationship between various dimension reduction and model selection methods used in statistical model building, and then use this understanding to develop new, improved methods of model building for statistically challenging data. The research will impact on both the theory and practice of statistics, and on substantive fields which collect and analyse these kinds of data. This will provide a significant improvement in the statistical model building in areas such as epidemiology, chemical and ecological sciences. The project is timely because of the increasing collection of large-dimensional, complex, correlated data sets in these and many other fields.Read moreRead less
New methods for small group analysis from sample surveys. National and state averages of statistics on issues such as unemployment, salinity, drought impact, and health often hide large differences between population sub-groups and between small areas. This local variation needs to be understood so that effective policies can be developed and carried out efficiently and their impact monitored. This project will provide, for the first time, robust and efficient methods for providing information o ....New methods for small group analysis from sample surveys. National and state averages of statistics on issues such as unemployment, salinity, drought impact, and health often hide large differences between population sub-groups and between small areas. This local variation needs to be understood so that effective policies can be developed and carried out efficiently and their impact monitored. This project will provide, for the first time, robust and efficient methods for providing information on these variations using data from large-scale national and state surveys. This will lead to significant improvements in the data available for small population groups and small areas, allowing better targeting of policies aimed at addressing local differences.Read moreRead less
Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
Unifying Modern Approaches in Machine Learning. The proposed research will lead to better algorithms for some important machine learning problems that could lead to better tools for extracting useful knowledge from data such as in bioinformatics and sensor networks; it will strengthen an international collaboration with one of the world's top centres of machine learning research; it will contribute to an open source toolkit of machine learning algorithms which will put Australia on the map as a ....Unifying Modern Approaches in Machine Learning. The proposed research will lead to better algorithms for some important machine learning problems that could lead to better tools for extracting useful knowledge from data such as in bioinformatics and sensor networks; it will strengthen an international collaboration with one of the world's top centres of machine learning research; it will contribute to an open source toolkit of machine learning algorithms which will put Australia on the map as a provider of sophisticated machine learning software; it will provide training opportunities for several PhD students and a postdoc to work with some of the best machine learning researchers in the world.Read moreRead less