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Ensemble modelling of space-weather drivers. This project aims to develop methods for forecasting the evolution of magnetic fields on the Sun's surface, and to use the results to drive an ensemble of numerical simulations of the evolution of the magnetic field in the overlying atmosphere. The project expects to create a new framework for forecasting the evolution of solar active regions, applying, for the first time, methods established in Numerical Weather Prediction. The expected outcomes are ....Ensemble modelling of space-weather drivers. This project aims to develop methods for forecasting the evolution of magnetic fields on the Sun's surface, and to use the results to drive an ensemble of numerical simulations of the evolution of the magnetic field in the overlying atmosphere. The project expects to create a new framework for forecasting the evolution of solar active regions, applying, for the first time, methods established in Numerical Weather Prediction. The expected outcomes are physics-based prediction of solar atmospheric magnetic field evolution, including explosive eruptions. The results should have significant benefit in improving prediction of extreme space weather events, which pose an increasing threat to our technologically-dependent society.Read moreRead less
Closing the Solar Cycle. This project aims to decisively settle the debate about the mechanism driving magnetic activity on the surface of the Sun. By drawing on extensive, big-data analysis of solar observations the project intends to use the technique of helioseismology to reveal differences in the statistical evolution of magnetic regions. Expected outcomes of this project will powerfully refine our models of the interaction between convective flows and magnetic fields in the Sun, resulting i ....Closing the Solar Cycle. This project aims to decisively settle the debate about the mechanism driving magnetic activity on the surface of the Sun. By drawing on extensive, big-data analysis of solar observations the project intends to use the technique of helioseismology to reveal differences in the statistical evolution of magnetic regions. Expected outcomes of this project will powerfully refine our models of the interaction between convective flows and magnetic fields in the Sun, resulting in a leap forward in solar dynamo theory, one of the fundamental problems in astrophysics. The anticipated benefits include moving from nowcasting to forecasting space weather, mitigating the billion dollar economic effects of geomagnetic storms.Read moreRead less