Risk Measurement for Large Portfolios under the Benchmark Approach. The measurement of risk for large portfolios, consisting of basic assets and derivatives, will play a key role in future risk management systems. Based on a new characterization of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulat ....Risk Measurement for Large Portfolios under the Benchmark Approach. The measurement of risk for large portfolios, consisting of basic assets and derivatives, will play a key role in future risk management systems. Based on a new characterization of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulation methods will demonstrate their superiority. The outcomes of this project will give the Australian industry and the industry partner a competitive advantage in the measurement and management of risk for large portfolios as superannuation funds or portfolios of banks.Read moreRead less
Problems of identification and inference for 'non-standard' models in complex systems with special reference to finance and teletraffic. The project is concerned with 'non-standard' models needed to deal with complex systems, such as those exhibiting scaling and fractal properties. There is a focus on methods for dealing with heavy tailed distributions and long range dependent observations, for which most standard statistical methods break down, and on applications in finance and telecommunicati ....Problems of identification and inference for 'non-standard' models in complex systems with special reference to finance and teletraffic. The project is concerned with 'non-standard' models needed to deal with complex systems, such as those exhibiting scaling and fractal properties. There is a focus on methods for dealing with heavy tailed distributions and long range dependent observations, for which most standard statistical methods break down, and on applications in finance and telecommunications. An important part of the project concerns model validation for Heyde's fractal activity time geometric Brownian motion model, a candidate minimal description risky asset model to replace the geometric Brownian motion paradigm.Read moreRead less
Modelling with stochastic differential equations. We will develop methodology for modelling and analysis of phenomena subjected to random and uncertain influences, such as behaviour of investors in the market, evolution of economy, values of stocks and ant colonies. This methodology will enable scientists to achieve more accurate description and analysis of their models and provide better understanding of these phenomena. Creating the tools for understanding such complex systems will have far re ....Modelling with stochastic differential equations. We will develop methodology for modelling and analysis of phenomena subjected to random and uncertain influences, such as behaviour of investors in the market, evolution of economy, values of stocks and ant colonies. This methodology will enable scientists to achieve more accurate description and analysis of their models and provide better understanding of these phenomena. Creating the tools for understanding such complex systems will have far reaching benefits both nationally and internationally and will allow Australia to strengthen its position in international research. The project will also provide for postgraduate training and international scientific exchange.Read moreRead less
Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. Current risk assessment paradigms are not suited to the control of catastrophic events such as terrorism. An advanced approach to risk assessment will be developed in this project for rare high impact events such as bomb blasts, where critical infrastructure is threatened. A new software platform based on scripted agent modelling will be constructed that will allow for state ....Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. Current risk assessment paradigms are not suited to the control of catastrophic events such as terrorism. An advanced approach to risk assessment will be developed in this project for rare high impact events such as bomb blasts, where critical infrastructure is threatened. A new software platform based on scripted agent modelling will be constructed that will allow for state of the art models to be used as agents providing a dynamic risk evaluation and necessary information for actions to infrastructure owners and emergency responders as a threat develops. Both the developed scripted agent and the risk assessment technologies can be applied to other technologies and complex risks, such as waste disposal and biotechnology.Read moreRead less
Financial Risk Processes: Stochastic and Statistical Models and their Applications. On the one hand, the misuse of complex financial instruments has contributed to recent major disasters in the Australian financial and insurance industries; on the other hand, great benefits can be obtained by correct use of these kinds of instruments, to share risk between markets and segments of markets. The overall research effort in Australia in these areas is relatively small. This project will target the de ....Financial Risk Processes: Stochastic and Statistical Models and their Applications. On the one hand, the misuse of complex financial instruments has contributed to recent major disasters in the Australian financial and insurance industries; on the other hand, great benefits can be obtained by correct use of these kinds of instruments, to share risk between markets and segments of markets. The overall research effort in Australia in these areas is relatively small. This project will target the development of cutting edge technologies underlying the use of financial derivatives, not presently studied in this country or elsewhere, by bringing together a variety of top level international researchers in an integrated effort to lift the Australian understanding and application of this methodology.Read moreRead less
Large-Scale Simulation Methods for Measuring Financial Performance under the Benchmark Approach. All working Australians are now required to belong to superannuation schemes. Hence, the measurement of financial performance safely, efficiently, and over long time horizons is of particular importance to Australia. One outcome alone of this research will be the provision of a technology to optimize the long term performance of superannuation funds. More generally, the results will allow better dec ....Large-Scale Simulation Methods for Measuring Financial Performance under the Benchmark Approach. All working Australians are now required to belong to superannuation schemes. Hence, the measurement of financial performance safely, efficiently, and over long time horizons is of particular importance to Australia. One outcome alone of this research will be the provision of a technology to optimize the long term performance of superannuation funds. More generally, the results will allow better decision-making and integrated, strategic planning for financial institutions and insurance companies. An additional outcome will be global growth for the sectors of Australia's IT industry developing innovative simulation based hardware and software, since the new simulation methods have wide applicability.Read moreRead less
A New Integrated Approach to Managing Risk in Financial Markets. Managing financial risks more safely, efficiently, and over longer time horizons is of particular importance in Australia, where - through superannuation - nearly everyone is exposed to the ups and downs of the financial markets. To name a specific example, the project will provide the technology to manage the risk of long-term return guarantees for superannuation funds. More generally, results of the project will allow regulatory ....A New Integrated Approach to Managing Risk in Financial Markets. Managing financial risks more safely, efficiently, and over longer time horizons is of particular importance in Australia, where - through superannuation - nearly everyone is exposed to the ups and downs of the financial markets. To name a specific example, the project will provide the technology to manage the risk of long-term return guarantees for superannuation funds. More generally, results of the project will allow regulatory authorities to accurately judge the risk profile of financial institutions, insurance companies and funds. The new generation of quantitative financial methods will benefit both Australian financial institutions and sectors of Australia's IT industry developing innovative risk management software.Read moreRead less
New valuation and parallel simulation methods for finance and insurance. Many Australians have superannuation savings and hold life insurance contracts. Hence, the price and risk of these investments is of particular importance to the welfare of Australia. The proposed research will improve the financial security of Australians by demonstrating that many long term insurance and superannuation products require far less capital than currently suggested. This project will provide path breaking fron ....New valuation and parallel simulation methods for finance and insurance. Many Australians have superannuation savings and hold life insurance contracts. Hence, the price and risk of these investments is of particular importance to the welfare of Australia. The proposed research will improve the financial security of Australians by demonstrating that many long term insurance and superannuation products require far less capital than currently suggested. This project will provide path breaking frontier technology for enhancing the performance of superannuation funds, insurance companies and banks, giving these Australian institutions a competitive advantage. An additional outcome will be global growth for sectors of Australia's IT industry, developing related software and tailored hardware.
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Pricing and Hedging Extreme Maturity Contracts. Most Australians belong to superannuation schemes. Hence, the long term performance and risk of these investments is of particular importance to the welfare of Australia. This research will improve the life-long financial security of Australians by clearly demonstrating that many superannuation targets can be achieved with less capital than currently suggested. This project will provide new technology for enhancing the long term performance of sup ....Pricing and Hedging Extreme Maturity Contracts. Most Australians belong to superannuation schemes. Hence, the long term performance and risk of these investments is of particular importance to the welfare of Australia. This research will improve the life-long financial security of Australians by clearly demonstrating that many superannuation targets can be achieved with less capital than currently suggested. This project will provide new technology for enhancing the long term performance of superannuation funds, managed funds, investment banks and insurance companies, giving these Australian institutions a competitive advantage and permitting them to offer innovative financial products to mitigate extreme maturity financial risk in retirement.Read moreRead less
New Stochastic Processes with Applications in Finance. This project investigates the properties and the use of two new families of models with applications in Finance, and beyond. It will contribute to the development of fundamental research in mathematics and its applications. The project will produce more realistic financial models that will benefit researchers in this field. This will in turn have a flow on effect to benefit the wider community. The project will provide for postgraduate train ....New Stochastic Processes with Applications in Finance. This project investigates the properties and the use of two new families of models with applications in Finance, and beyond. It will contribute to the development of fundamental research in mathematics and its applications. The project will produce more realistic financial models that will benefit researchers in this field. This will in turn have a flow on effect to benefit the wider community. The project will provide for postgraduate training and international scientific exchange. Overall, the project will strengthen Australia's standing at the forefront of fundamental and applied research.Read moreRead less