Physics-aware machine learning for data-driven fire risk prediction. The 2019/20 Australian fire season was unprecedented in its extent, impact, and the response of fire agencies. In this project, we aim to answer the question: was the scale of these fires driven by known drivers of fire (drought, weather, fuels and ignitions), or were fundamentally new undescribed processes and phenomena involved? We will accomplish this by developing an innovative, physics-aware machine learning model of fire ....Physics-aware machine learning for data-driven fire risk prediction. The 2019/20 Australian fire season was unprecedented in its extent, impact, and the response of fire agencies. In this project, we aim to answer the question: was the scale of these fires driven by known drivers of fire (drought, weather, fuels and ignitions), or were fundamentally new undescribed processes and phenomena involved? We will accomplish this by developing an innovative, physics-aware machine learning model of fire risk and spread, trained and validated on a two-decade satellite fire record. The predictive ability of the model will be tested on the 2019/20 fire season to determine if novel drivers of fire can be identified, and the model itself will be operationalised into a novel short-to-mid term fire risk prediction tool. Read moreRead less
El Niño in a changing climate: novel long-term perspectives from Pacific corals and model simulations. El Niño and La Niña events have a profound influence on Australian drought conditions and rainfall. Forecasting is hampered by short climate records, which do not capture the full range of El Niño dynamics. This project aims to generate records of unprecedented length and spatial coverage from key sites across the western and central equatorial Pacific. Five hundred years of continuous, monthly ....El Niño in a changing climate: novel long-term perspectives from Pacific corals and model simulations. El Niño and La Niña events have a profound influence on Australian drought conditions and rainfall. Forecasting is hampered by short climate records, which do not capture the full range of El Niño dynamics. This project aims to generate records of unprecedented length and spatial coverage from key sites across the western and central equatorial Pacific. Five hundred years of continuous, monthly-resolution climate data will be integrated with output from state-of-the-art climate model simulations to distil the key processes that cause El Niño to vary. This project aims to provide major advances in determining the full range of El Niño and La Niña behaviour, leading to improved forecasts of future changes, with consequences for Australia's water security.Read moreRead less
Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR0354817
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$10,000.00
Summary
Groundwater and the Environment: Understanding the role of groundwater in the maintenance of sustainable ecosystems in Australia.
. 97% of freshwater on earth is groundwater. Despite this, it is undervalued, largely unexplored and poorly understood. In Australia, groundwater plays a critical role in our salinity problem and sustains our ecosystems. It will be a critical water supply in the future, especially in times of drought when surface water is scarce. Our nation's groundwater resources ....Groundwater and the Environment: Understanding the role of groundwater in the maintenance of sustainable ecosystems in Australia.
. 97% of freshwater on earth is groundwater. Despite this, it is undervalued, largely unexplored and poorly understood. In Australia, groundwater plays a critical role in our salinity problem and sustains our ecosystems. It will be a critical water supply in the future, especially in times of drought when surface water is scarce. Our nation's groundwater resources require the same unresounding commitment to preservation that we now see in the Murray-Darling basin. This network develops foundations for a desperately needed National Groundwater Centre to provide research to ensure win-win outcomes for this country's water resources and the users that rely on them.
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Unravelling Western Australia's Stormy Past - A Precisely-Dated Sediment Record of Cyclones over the past 7000 years. Australia has a vast coastline, much of which is vulnerable to cyclone impact. Clearly, historical human experience does not comprehend what the climate system is capable of in terms of epic storms. Our effort to understand the storm risks of the past is complicated by the limited length of the instrumental record which reaches back only 150 years of European settlement in tropic ....Unravelling Western Australia's Stormy Past - A Precisely-Dated Sediment Record of Cyclones over the past 7000 years. Australia has a vast coastline, much of which is vulnerable to cyclone impact. Clearly, historical human experience does not comprehend what the climate system is capable of in terms of epic storms. Our effort to understand the storm risks of the past is complicated by the limited length of the instrumental record which reaches back only 150 years of European settlement in tropical areas of Australia. This project will reconstruct the history of storms and cyclones using sedimentary signatures in Western Australia over the past 7000 years to assess storm and cyclone risks under changing future climates in a regional context.Read moreRead less
Water availability, evaporative demand and climate change. Water availability is the balance between supply (i.e., rainfall) and evaporative demand. Rainfall is well studied but evaporative demand is not. The scientifically useful measure of evaporative demand is the rate of evaporation of water from a metal pan - called pan evaporation. Worldwide measurements show decreasing pan evaporation rate over the last 30-50 years. This project will for the first time make a detailed study of that phenom ....Water availability, evaporative demand and climate change. Water availability is the balance between supply (i.e., rainfall) and evaporative demand. Rainfall is well studied but evaporative demand is not. The scientifically useful measure of evaporative demand is the rate of evaporation of water from a metal pan - called pan evaporation. Worldwide measurements show decreasing pan evaporation rate over the last 30-50 years. This project will for the first time make a detailed study of that phenomenon using a new purpose-built evaporation pan. This will result in better information and policy advice about changes in water availability with climate change.Read moreRead less
Limits to ocean surface temperature in future climates. This project aims to investigate whether ocean surface temperatures can increase beyond the 35 degree centigrade threshold for the survival of humans and many other mammal species. Climate models predict that ocean surface temperatures will exceed 35 degree centigrade in parts of the middle east and throughout much of South East Asia in as little as 50 years. This project will use a series of laboratory experiments to test whether parts of ....Limits to ocean surface temperature in future climates. This project aims to investigate whether ocean surface temperatures can increase beyond the 35 degree centigrade threshold for the survival of humans and many other mammal species. Climate models predict that ocean surface temperatures will exceed 35 degree centigrade in parts of the middle east and throughout much of South East Asia in as little as 50 years. This project will use a series of laboratory experiments to test whether parts of the ocean surface can be warmed beyond this limit under natural conditions. Expected outcomes of this project are a new understanding of what sets the maximum surface temperature of the ocean, thereby allowing us to determine whether coastal regions of the humid tropics and sub-tropics will remain habitable for humans and other mammal species in the near future.Read moreRead less
Water resource management of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme catchment and the Murray-Darling River system - a new perspective on system reliability from drought history reconstruction. The Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme assists in underwriting the production of $3 billion of agricultural products in the Murray-Darling Basin each year by providing a reliable source of water west of the Great Dividing Range, while Hydro-electric generation from the Scheme is worth annually severa ....Water resource management of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme catchment and the Murray-Darling River system - a new perspective on system reliability from drought history reconstruction. The Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme assists in underwriting the production of $3 billion of agricultural products in the Murray-Darling Basin each year by providing a reliable source of water west of the Great Dividing Range, while Hydro-electric generation from the Scheme is worth annually several hundred million dollars and provides 70% of the renewable energy supplied to the eastern mainland grid, thereby avoiding 5Mt of carbon dioxide emissions each year. This study will ensure the ongoing sustainable and efficient management of the Schemes water resources in response to predicted climate variability and most importantly, severe drought. Read moreRead less
An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with differen ....An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with different mechanisms being represented through different models in a probabilistic sense. We expect our approach to address the limitations of current schemes, and provide a much improved basis for estimating flows for design and management applications.Read moreRead less
Understanding interglacial diversity. This project intends to improve our understanding of interglacial processes. Interglacials, the relatively brief warm intervals of Quaternary ice-age cycles, have varied significantly over the last 800 000 years in terms of their duration, timing, intensity and complexity. The reason for such diversity has eluded palaeoclimatologists for decades. This is because of the difficulty of dating marine and ice records, which best preserve interglacial histories. T ....Understanding interglacial diversity. This project intends to improve our understanding of interglacial processes. Interglacials, the relatively brief warm intervals of Quaternary ice-age cycles, have varied significantly over the last 800 000 years in terms of their duration, timing, intensity and complexity. The reason for such diversity has eluded palaeoclimatologists for decades. This is because of the difficulty of dating marine and ice records, which best preserve interglacial histories. The projects plans to compile precisely dated time series of past interglacials that can be linked directly to these records, allowing robust comparisons between interglacial properties and changes in Earth's astronomical parameters. This would advance palaeoclimate theory and provide a new perspective on the future evolution of the climate system.Read moreRead less
Sustaining intensive agriculture through droughts and floods. This project aims to develop state-of-the-art conceptual and numerical models of river-soil-groundwater interactions to address complex and persistent questions on water sustainability in the Lower Burdekin Delta, Queensland, where groundwater pumping to irrigate sugarcane has been supplemented by artificial recharge for over 50 years. This project expects to deliver new knowledge of critical aquifer processes to inform the scheme ope ....Sustaining intensive agriculture through droughts and floods. This project aims to develop state-of-the-art conceptual and numerical models of river-soil-groundwater interactions to address complex and persistent questions on water sustainability in the Lower Burdekin Delta, Queensland, where groundwater pumping to irrigate sugarcane has been supplemented by artificial recharge for over 50 years. This project expects to deliver new knowledge of critical aquifer processes to inform the scheme operation, the largest in the country. Expected outcomes include ground-breaking management plans for the aquifer-replenishment scheme. Anticipated benefits involve balancing the needs of agriculture and the protection of pristine environments, including groundwater discharge to the Great Barrier Reef.
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