The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability. We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been ....The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability. We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been made badly because of poor probability estimates-witness the 1986 space shuttle disaster. Our current methodologies for using probability are inadequate. This project will make an important contribution to the collective enterprise of enhancing our understanding of probability and its myriad applications.Read moreRead less
The Objects of Probabilities. Probabilities impact almost every aspect of our lives. Actuaries calculate probabilities of property loss due to bushfires, while climatologists warn that such probabilities will increase alarmingly. Probabilities abound in engineering, medicine, the law, the sciences and social sciences, and much philosophy. Yet we lack a proper understanding of the kinds of things that receive probabilities: the objects of probabilities. This project will provide such understandin ....The Objects of Probabilities. Probabilities impact almost every aspect of our lives. Actuaries calculate probabilities of property loss due to bushfires, while climatologists warn that such probabilities will increase alarmingly. Probabilities abound in engineering, medicine, the law, the sciences and social sciences, and much philosophy. Yet we lack a proper understanding of the kinds of things that receive probabilities: the objects of probabilities. This project will provide such understanding. It will rethink the foundations of probability and decision theory, with potential ramifications for the philosophy, science, and public policy that are based on these theories. It thus aims to strengthen Australia's research profile and international standing in these areas.Read moreRead less