Problems of identification and inference for 'non-standard' models in complex systems with special reference to finance and teletraffic. The project is concerned with 'non-standard' models needed to deal with complex systems, such as those exhibiting scaling and fractal properties. There is a focus on methods for dealing with heavy tailed distributions and long range dependent observations, for which most standard statistical methods break down, and on applications in finance and telecommunicati ....Problems of identification and inference for 'non-standard' models in complex systems with special reference to finance and teletraffic. The project is concerned with 'non-standard' models needed to deal with complex systems, such as those exhibiting scaling and fractal properties. There is a focus on methods for dealing with heavy tailed distributions and long range dependent observations, for which most standard statistical methods break down, and on applications in finance and telecommunications. An important part of the project concerns model validation for Heyde's fractal activity time geometric Brownian motion model, a candidate minimal description risky asset model to replace the geometric Brownian motion paradigm.Read moreRead less
Applying search theory for eradicating invasive species. Invasive species have major economic and environmental impacts in Australia and are a major cause of extinctions worldwide. Monitoring is crucial for the timely control of invasive species in sensitive environments. Early detection increases the probability of eradication and increased accuracy in detection reduces the impact of control programs on non-target species. Efficient monitoring also is crucial in determining whether eradication ....Applying search theory for eradicating invasive species. Invasive species have major economic and environmental impacts in Australia and are a major cause of extinctions worldwide. Monitoring is crucial for the timely control of invasive species in sensitive environments. Early detection increases the probability of eradication and increased accuracy in detection reduces the impact of control programs on non-target species. Efficient monitoring also is crucial in determining whether eradication has succeeded. Search Theory has been applied for over 60 years in a wide range of non-biological monitoring problems, resulting in large increases in target detection rates. Gains of a similar magnitude in invasive species detection would greatly enhance Australia's capacity to manage these threats.Read moreRead less
Partially Observable MDPs, Monte Carlo Methods, and Sustainable Fisheries. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a general mathematical framework for sequential decision making under uncertainty. However, solving POMDPs effectively under realistic assumptions remains a challenging problem. This project aims to develop new efficient Monte Carlo algorithms to significantly advance the application of POMDPs to real-world decision problems involving complex action spaces an ....Partially Observable MDPs, Monte Carlo Methods, and Sustainable Fisheries. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a general mathematical framework for sequential decision making under uncertainty. However, solving POMDPs effectively under realistic assumptions remains a challenging problem. This project aims to develop new efficient Monte Carlo algorithms to significantly advance the application of POMDPs to real-world decision problems involving complex action spaces and system dynamics. Both theoretical and algorithmic approaches will be applied to sustainable fishery management --- an important problem for Australia and an ideal context for POMDPs. The project will advance research in artificial intelligence, dynamical systems, and fishery operations, and benefit the national economy.Read moreRead less
Incentivised strategic traffic assignment: bi-level transport optimisation. This project aims to advance the fundamental knowledge base and methodological modelling capacity related to traffic network assignment representing complex incentive structures such as network pricing, behavioural shift inducement, dynamic speed control and information-provision. Expected outcomes include new equilibrium formulations characterising traveller responses to, and interactions with, incentive structures whil ....Incentivised strategic traffic assignment: bi-level transport optimisation. This project aims to advance the fundamental knowledge base and methodological modelling capacity related to traffic network assignment representing complex incentive structures such as network pricing, behavioural shift inducement, dynamic speed control and information-provision. Expected outcomes include new equilibrium formulations characterising traveller responses to, and interactions with, incentive structures while maintaining complex stochastic adaptive behaviours from previous research, new network routing algorithms, and a novel bi-level optimisation approach for seeking optimal incentive policies. The project will provide a scientific basis for the quantified network evaluation of incentivisation strategies that will support enhanced transport planning thereby improving mobility across society.Read moreRead less