Water availability, evaporative demand and climate change. Water availability is the balance between supply (i.e., rainfall) and evaporative demand. Rainfall is well studied but evaporative demand is not. The scientifically useful measure of evaporative demand is the rate of evaporation of water from a metal pan - called pan evaporation. Worldwide measurements show decreasing pan evaporation rate over the last 30-50 years. This project will for the first time make a detailed study of that phenom ....Water availability, evaporative demand and climate change. Water availability is the balance between supply (i.e., rainfall) and evaporative demand. Rainfall is well studied but evaporative demand is not. The scientifically useful measure of evaporative demand is the rate of evaporation of water from a metal pan - called pan evaporation. Worldwide measurements show decreasing pan evaporation rate over the last 30-50 years. This project will for the first time make a detailed study of that phenomenon using a new purpose-built evaporation pan. This will result in better information and policy advice about changes in water availability with climate change.Read moreRead less
Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change ....Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change during a period of rapid change. This is of great national and community benefit in that it will lead to a fuller understanding of the polar regions, and present a broader context in which precipitation and other changes over southern Australia can be understood.Read moreRead less
Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be exte ....Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be extended to results from a simulation of future climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The extent to which extreme cyclone and precipitation events become more numerous in a warmer world will be determined and the links between them established.Read moreRead less
Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled ....Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled in this project will allow reliable assessments of how frontal systems have changed, and may be expected to change in the next century. Great community benefit will derive from understanding how these are linked with changes in Australian weather and climate extremes, and to decreases in rainfall over southern Australia in recent decades.Read moreRead less
Impact of land use on cloud formation. Large scale land clearing has the potential to significantly modify regional climates yet current climate models do not incorporate an adequate representation of the land surface. Within Western Australia the rabbit fence provides a unique environment in which the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere can be studied without other competing influences. A combination of satellite, aircraft and ground based observations will be used to relate ....Impact of land use on cloud formation. Large scale land clearing has the potential to significantly modify regional climates yet current climate models do not incorporate an adequate representation of the land surface. Within Western Australia the rabbit fence provides a unique environment in which the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere can be studied without other competing influences. A combination of satellite, aircraft and ground based observations will be used to relate cloud formation to land characteristics and provide a clearer insight into the climatic impact of human-induced land surface changes.Read moreRead less
Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Predicting soil loss from wind erosion, using an integrated, high resolution, land surface data assimilation-modelling system. Australia is an ancient, dry, continent. Soil losses from wind erosion are practically irreversible. Prevention of wind erosion, especially in agricultural areas, is a major challenge to agricultural communities and land management organisations. For continental and regional scale assessment of wind erosion potential, the high-resolution integrated wind erosion modelling ....Predicting soil loss from wind erosion, using an integrated, high resolution, land surface data assimilation-modelling system. Australia is an ancient, dry, continent. Soil losses from wind erosion are practically irreversible. Prevention of wind erosion, especially in agricultural areas, is a major challenge to agricultural communities and land management organisations. For continental and regional scale assessment of wind erosion potential, the high-resolution integrated wind erosion modelling system developed here is a powerful tool. The system will identify areas prone to soil erosion and provide a solid scientific basis for strategic and practical measures for wind erosion prevention. The proposal allows the CIs to continue to play a leading international role in this National Research Priority area.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Sustainable futures of Australian temperate forests: An investigation of coupled carbon, water and energy exchanges from hourly to centennial timescales. Australia's forests are a critical natural resource that must be sustainably managed. We will determine the uptake/release of carbon from old growth and regrowth forests and assess the water budgets of the Melbourne water catchment. We aim to understand the current cycles of carbon, water and energy and how these may change over time (hours to ....Sustainable futures of Australian temperate forests: An investigation of coupled carbon, water and energy exchanges from hourly to centennial timescales. Australia's forests are a critical natural resource that must be sustainably managed. We will determine the uptake/release of carbon from old growth and regrowth forests and assess the water budgets of the Melbourne water catchment. We aim to understand the current cycles of carbon, water and energy and how these may change over time (hours to centuries). We will integrate our observations with state-of-the-art models to improve our predictions of how forests will respond to change. This will aid our management of forests and forested catchments to ensure sustainable and viable water resources and optimise carbon sequestration.Read moreRead less