Monitoring and Predicting Frost Events in the Agricultural Area of WA. Frost is commonly ranked by farmers as the second most important climate risk after rainfall variability. Thus reliable nocturnal temperature forecasts are of paramount importance in understanding the potential for frost formation and enabling its timely prediction and detection. Such forecasts would allow appropriate active or passive management responses. Utilising the existing meteorological network of the Department of Ag ....Monitoring and Predicting Frost Events in the Agricultural Area of WA. Frost is commonly ranked by farmers as the second most important climate risk after rainfall variability. Thus reliable nocturnal temperature forecasts are of paramount importance in understanding the potential for frost formation and enabling its timely prediction and detection. Such forecasts would allow appropriate active or passive management responses. Utilising the existing meteorological network of the Department of Agriculture, this project aims to develop an integrated frost prediction system that will provide timely estimates of both the spatial and temporal extent of frost events for farmers and agribusiness.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Precipitation in wintertime storms across southeast Australia, Tasmania and the Southern Ocean. The pristine conditions and strong wind-shear over the Southern Ocean affect the formation of precipitation in clouds over the region, which is vital to the water supply of southeastern Australia and Tasmania. This project will evaluate and improve the ability to simulate this precipitation, which will lead to better water resource management.
IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING PRACTICE WITH KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS. This research aims to improve meteorological services through the application of knowledge management to the forecast process. A comprehensive framework of knowledge management will be developed that includes models of forecasters? explicit, tacit and experiential knowledge. Such models allow forecasters to share knowledge and learn from their collective experience. The development of computer based support systems, ....IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING PRACTICE WITH KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS. This research aims to improve meteorological services through the application of knowledge management to the forecast process. A comprehensive framework of knowledge management will be developed that includes models of forecasters? explicit, tacit and experiential knowledge. Such models allow forecasters to share knowledge and learn from their collective experience. The development of computer based support systems, based on this framework, will enhance the Bureau of Meteorology's ability to compete internationally in the provision of complete forecasting systems. Generalising the outcomes will provide industry with the means to adopt knowledge management practices and enhance its ability to participate in the knowledge economy. Read moreRead less
Will East Coast Lows change in frequency or intensity in the future? East Coast Lows, the largest storms on the south-east coast of Australia, produce both large benefits and losses for this highly populated region of the country. An urgent national priority exists to understand the driving mechanisms for these events and to quantify how the frequency and intensity of these systems will change due to climate change.
Temporal and spatial Bayesian network modelling for improved fog forecasting. This project aims to improve the accuracy of fog forecasting by explicitly modelling the spatial and temporal uncertainties surrounding fog formation. It is expected weather forecast services will adopt our approach to improve their predictions of fog, which will in turn help transport companies save costs, cut emissions and improve safety.
Precipitation Events over Tasmania and their Response to Weather Modification. The ongoing cloud-seeding work undertaken by Hydro Tasmania will be investigated through a combination of fieldwork and numerical simulations. New instrumentation and advanced numerical models will allow this research to provide a new understanding of the precipitation events over Tasmania and their response to cloud seeding. This research will also explore the interaction between the background aerosol/pollution leve ....Precipitation Events over Tasmania and their Response to Weather Modification. The ongoing cloud-seeding work undertaken by Hydro Tasmania will be investigated through a combination of fieldwork and numerical simulations. New instrumentation and advanced numerical models will allow this research to provide a new understanding of the precipitation events over Tasmania and their response to cloud seeding. This research will also explore the interaction between the background aerosol/pollution level and the precipitation. Given the relatively pure nature of the air over Tasmania, this research will be of international interest. This research will also be of direct interest to Hydro Tasmania as insight gained into the precipitation events will allow us to optimise their cloud-seeding operation.Read moreRead less
How does orography enhance precipitation in Australian wintertime storms? This project aims to employ targeted field observations, numerical simulations and new satellite capabilities to identify the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that enhance and redistribute precipitation across the alpine regions of south eastern Australia and Tasmania. These observations will be used to evaluate operational numerical weather simulations specifically focusing on quantitative precipitation forecasts an ....How does orography enhance precipitation in Australian wintertime storms? This project aims to employ targeted field observations, numerical simulations and new satellite capabilities to identify the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that enhance and redistribute precipitation across the alpine regions of south eastern Australia and Tasmania. These observations will be used to evaluate operational numerical weather simulations specifically focusing on quantitative precipitation forecasts and estimates. The observations will also be used to extend known biases in the national gridded precipitation analysis that are a result of the complex mountain terrain. This identification of the physical processes that enhance and redistribute precipitation over the alpine regions across south east Australia and Tasmania will lead to better precipitation estimates and forecasts and better water management.Read moreRead less
Towards Distributed Phased Array Radar for High Resolution Weather Monitoring. Several recent reports on climate change by leading international and national bodies forecast that the rate of weather hazards such as storms and wind-shear, and of weather-associated phenomena such as bush fires will increase over the next 40 years. The current technology for monitoring weather events, and effects like wind-shift, which has a serious impact on dangers associated with bush fires, has significant wea ....Towards Distributed Phased Array Radar for High Resolution Weather Monitoring. Several recent reports on climate change by leading international and national bodies forecast that the rate of weather hazards such as storms and wind-shear, and of weather-associated phenomena such as bush fires will increase over the next 40 years. The current technology for monitoring weather events, and effects like wind-shift, which has a serious impact on dangers associated with bush fires, has significant weaknesses. We will deliver considerable improvements in monitoring capability by developing the technology for using a network of small phased array radars. We aim to place monitoring resources where end-user needs are greatest.Read moreRead less
Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how like ....Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how likely they are to exceed key thresholds. It targets important scientific and practical issues such as the joint occurrence of gusts and high rainfall, role of gusts in contributing to dust and other airborne pollutants, impacts of gusts on subsequent storm activity, and gusts in a warming climate.Read moreRead less