Risk and Reliability in Stochastic Optimisation and Equilibrium. This project seeks to develop theory and methodology in optimisation which take advantage of recent progress in understanding and treating risk in decision making. Problems of optimisation in the face of uncertainty must confront the risk inherent in having to make reliable decisions before knowing the outcomes of crucial random variables on which costs and constraints may depend. Recent theoretical developments, featuring ‘measure ....Risk and Reliability in Stochastic Optimisation and Equilibrium. This project seeks to develop theory and methodology in optimisation which take advantage of recent progress in understanding and treating risk in decision making. Problems of optimisation in the face of uncertainty must confront the risk inherent in having to make reliable decisions before knowing the outcomes of crucial random variables on which costs and constraints may depend. Recent theoretical developments, featuring ‘measures of risk’ beyond just-expected values and quantiles offer hope of major new advances. This project aims to achieve such advances not only in optimisation but also in models of equilibrium that likewise have to deal with uncertainty. Extending current theory and methodology to such multi-stage stochastic models is a challenge. Besides taking up this challenge for its own sake, a major goal of this research will be to use the results in solution algorithms.Read moreRead less
Money, price and output dynamics: a segmented asset markets approach. This project studies the importance of asset market frictions and the cross-sectional composition of nominal spending across households for the monetary policy transmission mechanism (that is, for the channels by which monetary policy affects the broader macro-economy).
Household mortgage choice: theoretical and empirical evidence. A house is often the largest component of household assets, and financing its purchase involves choosing a mortgage product from many alternatives. Inefficiencies and incompleteness in mortgage markets have important consequences. This project uncovers theoretical and empirical evidence on why Australians choose particular mortgage products.
Is it just a matter of time? Why some people plan and others do not. Differences in planning behaviour can be explained in terms of individual preferences for the past, present or future, or Time Perspective (TP). This project aims to identify why some people fail to plan for retirement using TP as a conceptual framework. Planning for retirement is an economic imperative since sufficient finances reliably predicts retirement adjustment. Despite this, almost one million people currently in the la ....Is it just a matter of time? Why some people plan and others do not. Differences in planning behaviour can be explained in terms of individual preferences for the past, present or future, or Time Perspective (TP). This project aims to identify why some people fail to plan for retirement using TP as a conceptual framework. Planning for retirement is an economic imperative since sufficient finances reliably predicts retirement adjustment. Despite this, almost one million people currently in the labour force have no retirement plans. The project plans to incorporate recent research showing that TP is stable over time and predicts behaviour into a model explaining propensity to plan. Improvements are anticipated in retirement planning, accumulation of resources for retirement and better adjustment benefiting individuals and policy-makers.Read moreRead less
Endgame: managing superannuation in later life. This project aims to come up with strategies for improving superannuation advice for the elderly - including retirees, and also those on the cusp of retirement, who often have little or no scope for working harder or longer to restore their finances. It applies recent developments in financial economics to improve the quality of financial planning advice.
Integrating public and private retirement risk protection: public policy and business practice. Demographic shift has brought widespread calls for structures which allow both the private and public sectors to participate in retirement protection. This project will deliver outcomes for co-ordinating public policy and business practice to finance adequate retirement protection, and identify opportunities for specific outcome improvements.
Ownership linkages and the functioning of inter-firm capital markets during the Global Financial Crisis. A firm's dependence on outside funding can lead to catastrophic consequences in the face of a crisis that severely curtails the functioning of external capital markets. This project investigates how ownership linkages between firms improve their fundraising and investment capabilities even when facing substantial shocks to the financial system.
What women want: unravelling the factors underlying women's financial decision-making behaviour. By the time women retire, they are generally worse off financially than men. This national study will be the first to measure the impact of underlying factors that explain rather than describe the financial decision-making behaviour of women, and how financial decision-making and economic outcomes for women might be improved.
Real economy and financial networks. This project aims to analyse the Australian economy from the network perspective. The network approach’s emphasis on the structure of interactions between firms, banks and consumers is important for understanding the economy. The project intends to develop a model of a production network using the input-output links between sectors, including imports and exports, and focusing on credit-lending relations that may cause economic distortions. It also aims to adv ....Real economy and financial networks. This project aims to analyse the Australian economy from the network perspective. The network approach’s emphasis on the structure of interactions between firms, banks and consumers is important for understanding the economy. The project intends to develop a model of a production network using the input-output links between sectors, including imports and exports, and focusing on credit-lending relations that may cause economic distortions. It also aims to advance a theory and estimation methodology for the network formation models useful for prediction and policy analysis. Anticipated benefits include mitigation of economic risks and improved policies.Read moreRead less
The predictive, behavioural and economic forecasting performance of alternative credit risk and bankruptcy models: a global study. This study empirically evaluates a range of "new age" credit risk models using a large global sample of failed firms and bond ratings data. The study will provide a substantive body of empirical evidence to assist regulators, creditors, investors and other users assess the merits, strengths and limitations of alternative risk modelling approaches.