An econometric investigation of technical analysis as a portfolio selection strategy in Australia. This project will provide an in-depth analysis of the returns of portfolios of Australian equities formed by using technical trading rules. The research will determine whether or not any abnormal returns earned by these means are attributable to firm-specific or market-wide factors. This project represents the first attempt to interpret technical analysis in a portfolio framework and will provide v ....An econometric investigation of technical analysis as a portfolio selection strategy in Australia. This project will provide an in-depth analysis of the returns of portfolios of Australian equities formed by using technical trading rules. The research will determine whether or not any abnormal returns earned by these means are attributable to firm-specific or market-wide factors. This project represents the first attempt to interpret technical analysis in a portfolio framework and will provide valuable information on the informational efficiency of Australian capital markets. As there is currently no single definitive study of technical analysis in Australia, this project will fill a significant void in the current academic literature and provide evidence of great practical relevance to Australian investment practitioners.Read moreRead less
Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk f ....Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk factors, and increase global competitiveness by hedging against competitors' good weather-related advantage. The US weather derivative market, capitalised at over US$7.5b, began just 7 years ago; there is no organised Australian market. This project's smart techniques for improving pricing accuracy will support the development and vigorous growth of a local market.Read moreRead less
Novel econometric techniques for dealing with point processes in high frequency financial data with applications to financial risk management. The recent global financial crisis highlighted the inherent risk involved in investing in financial assets. This project aims to develop novel statistical methods for forecasting the onset of instability in asset prices. The outcomes of this research will lead to improvements in the management of financial risk.
Hedge Funds in Superannuation Portfolios: Are the Returns Worth the Risks? In recent years superannuation funds have delivered negative returns to members due to poorly performing stockmarkets. In striving to achieve higher rates of return, superannuation trustees have commenced allocating retirement savings to a new type of investment opportunity, termed hedge funds. There is a paucity of research about this new type of investment, particularly relating to the non-linear nature of hedge funds ....Hedge Funds in Superannuation Portfolios: Are the Returns Worth the Risks? In recent years superannuation funds have delivered negative returns to members due to poorly performing stockmarkets. In striving to achieve higher rates of return, superannuation trustees have commenced allocating retirement savings to a new type of investment opportunity, termed hedge funds. There is a paucity of research about this new type of investment, particularly relating to the non-linear nature of hedge funds returns. This study will investigate the risk and return trade-off of including hedge funds in superannuation portfolios and provide trustees with empirical tools to determine the optimal allocation to hedge funds.Read moreRead less
Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the ....Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the potential to be a significant improvement in the real-time identification of emerging turmoil in financial markets and provide an improved method for the detection of systemic risk. The new test procedure will be implemented using data for financial and non-financial institutions across Europe, the US and Australia.Read moreRead less
The impact of payout policy changes on firm value and short selling activities across different taxation regimes. Brealey et al (2011) assert that we don't know enough yet about how payout policy varies across firms. This project examines the information content of dividend changes and repurchase programs and the long-term market impact of these announcements, controlling for the substitution effect of repurchases/dividends in different institutional/tax regimes. This project also examines wheth ....The impact of payout policy changes on firm value and short selling activities across different taxation regimes. Brealey et al (2011) assert that we don't know enough yet about how payout policy varies across firms. This project examines the information content of dividend changes and repurchase programs and the long-term market impact of these announcements, controlling for the substitution effect of repurchases/dividends in different institutional/tax regimes. This project also examines whether short sellers manifest abnormal behaviour around the announcement of dividend changes and repurchase programs, and whether earnings are manipulated upwards to maintain the dividend or downwards prior to the announcement of repurchase programs. The findings will be of major interest to academics, managers, investors and regulators.Read moreRead less
Capital Management in a Stochastic Earnings Framework. Many large Australian firms have on-going capital management programs. These programs are aimed at ensuring that the firm maintains an optimal capital structure. This is often done according to rules of thumb or benchmarked against a few financial ratios. To the extent that more rigor can be introduced into the analysis of optimal capital structure, there is a clear benefit to Australian firms. Of course, the reason firms engage in capit ....Capital Management in a Stochastic Earnings Framework. Many large Australian firms have on-going capital management programs. These programs are aimed at ensuring that the firm maintains an optimal capital structure. This is often done according to rules of thumb or benchmarked against a few financial ratios. To the extent that more rigor can be introduced into the analysis of optimal capital structure, there is a clear benefit to Australian firms. Of course, the reason firms engage in capital management initiatives in the first place is to lower their cost of capital and to increase value. Any initiative that lowers the cost of capital of Australian firms will result in increased productivity and economic growth.Read moreRead less
Quantification issues in corporate valuation, the cost of capital, and optimal capital structure. An estimate of the firm's cost of capital is probably the most important calculation required in corporate finance. It is used as the discount rate in valuation and capital budgeting decisions and forms the basis of pricing structures for many regulated industries. Corporate finance theory has identified the key inputs used to calculate the cost of capital, but the current literature falls short o ....Quantification issues in corporate valuation, the cost of capital, and optimal capital structure. An estimate of the firm's cost of capital is probably the most important calculation required in corporate finance. It is used as the discount rate in valuation and capital budgeting decisions and forms the basis of pricing structures for many regulated industries. Corporate finance theory has identified the key inputs used to calculate the cost of capital, but the current literature falls short of precisely quantifying and measuring many of these inputs. The outcomes from this project will be a framework to quantify three key aspects of the cost of capital - the value of dividend imputation tax credits, the assessment of the optimal capital structure for the firm (in particular, the quantification of bankruptcy and agency costs associated with debt financing), and the estimation of the firm's marginal tax rate.Read moreRead less
The Management of Asymmetric Risk in a Modern Investment Portfolio. Due to compulsory superannuation legislation, the future lifestyle of all Australians is dependent upon the successful management of investment funds. A large component of funds management is risk management. This project will generate practical management tools to enable portfolio managers to significantly enhance their risk-management strategies. A direct link between risk management and performance drives funds managers to ....The Management of Asymmetric Risk in a Modern Investment Portfolio. Due to compulsory superannuation legislation, the future lifestyle of all Australians is dependent upon the successful management of investment funds. A large component of funds management is risk management. This project will generate practical management tools to enable portfolio managers to significantly enhance their risk-management strategies. A direct link between risk management and performance drives funds managers to carefully manage their risk exposure. Any developments that reduce the risk of a portfolio will ultimately enhance portfolio returns. Higher returns on superannuation investments will result in an improved future standard of living for all Australians.Read moreRead less
Australian Costs of Equity. The goal of this project is to identify the most appropriate framework and estimation methodology for estimating the cost of equity capital for Australian firms. The outcome of the project will be the identification of precise costs of equity of all industries and exchange-listed companies in Australia. Our final product will not only attain high academic value by providing comprehensive examination of all popular asset pricing models, but will also serve as a compreh ....Australian Costs of Equity. The goal of this project is to identify the most appropriate framework and estimation methodology for estimating the cost of equity capital for Australian firms. The outcome of the project will be the identification of precise costs of equity of all industries and exchange-listed companies in Australia. Our final product will not only attain high academic value by providing comprehensive examination of all popular asset pricing models, but will also serve as a comprehensive benchmarking tool for all investment decisions (both corporate and government) in Australia. This will bring about economic efficiency and benefits to the business community via more accurate valuation of assets and more appropriate evaluation of potential new projects.Read moreRead less