Approximation and Simulation of Large Diversified Portfolios. The measurement of risk for large diversified portfolios, consisting of primary securities and derivatives, will play a key role in future financial technology. Based on a new characterisation of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new approximate risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with sta ....Approximation and Simulation of Large Diversified Portfolios. The measurement of risk for large diversified portfolios, consisting of primary securities and derivatives, will play a key role in future financial technology. Based on a new characterisation of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new approximate risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulation methods will demonstrate their superiority. The outcomes of this project will give Australian industry an internationally competitive advantage in the measurement and management of risk for large diversified portfolios such as those of superannuation funds and banks.Read moreRead less
Financial tunnelling: shareholder protection and wealth changes during two decades of capital management activities in Australia. Companies raise capital and distribute capital and profits through various mechanisms, often structured to benefit important shareholders such as institutions. This study examines the extent to which minority shareholders have had wealth destroyed through company capital management activities, and offers corporate governance solutions.
Tax Loss Selling: Implications for investor share trading behaviour and industry effects. We will contribute to the national interest in several ways. First, we will provide up-to-date evidence on Tax Loss Selling (TLS), addressing an acute lack of research in this area. Second, a predictive model of TLS is being developed, which is important in understanding when and where significant TLS will arise. Third, we will examine whether the mineral exploration industry has been particularly disadvant ....Tax Loss Selling: Implications for investor share trading behaviour and industry effects. We will contribute to the national interest in several ways. First, we will provide up-to-date evidence on Tax Loss Selling (TLS), addressing an acute lack of research in this area. Second, a predictive model of TLS is being developed, which is important in understanding when and where significant TLS will arise. Third, we will examine whether the mineral exploration industry has been particularly disadvantaged by the Capital Gains Tax. As recognised in the Prosser Report, current tax policy is a potentially important cause of the decline in exploration expenditure. Its role needs to be understood, because the exploration industry contributes substantially to exports and national income, and is critical to the national interest. Read moreRead less
Asset pricing with social interactions, adaptive learning, and differences in opinion. This project seeks to understand how social interactions and adaptive learning of investors affect asset prices in highly competitive and adaptive financial markets. It will develop an evolutionary asset pricing theory, novel empirical hypotheses and tests of financial market characteristics and provide implications for policy and market regulation.
Modelling multivariate financial time series using copulas. What are the chances that the losses in the market value of investments exceed the anticipated levels? Given that one country's financial market collapsed, what are the chances that it would lead to financial crises in other countries? These questions often arise in risk management and international finance. This project takes a significant step forward from the existing literature to develop new flexible and innovative methods to an ....Modelling multivariate financial time series using copulas. What are the chances that the losses in the market value of investments exceed the anticipated levels? Given that one country's financial market collapsed, what are the chances that it would lead to financial crises in other countries? These questions often arise in risk management and international finance. This project takes a significant step forward from the existing literature to develop new flexible and innovative methods to answer the foregoing type of questions. Further, this project proposes new measures of market risks that are suitable for communicating to the broader public as well as the experts.Read moreRead less
Dynamic Asset Pricing and Portfolio Decision Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning. The outcomes of this project will provide two benefits to Australian financial market researchers in academe, in industry and financial market regulators. First, a better theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding and analysing optimal portfolio decision rules in a setting that captures many realistic features of market behaviour such as heterogeneity of investor types and adapt ....Dynamic Asset Pricing and Portfolio Decision Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning. The outcomes of this project will provide two benefits to Australian financial market researchers in academe, in industry and financial market regulators. First, a better theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding and analysing optimal portfolio decision rules in a setting that captures many realistic features of market behaviour such as heterogeneity of investor types and adaptive behaviour by market participants. Second, new tools to more effectively understand and manage portfolio risk in financial markets. Consequently Australia will have a more efficient and competitive financial system. It also has the potential to lead to the development of more finance related industries such as financial market software.Read moreRead less
The impact of COVID-19 economic stimulus measures on corporate stakeholders. Australia's economic response to COVID-19 saw cash injections to companies and bailouts of some insolvent firms. This project aims to quantify the market value of these government subsidies and how it was shared across corporate stakeholders. The project expects to generate new knowledge for the design of financial stability regimes by developing the world-first dynamic structural model of firm assets that allows for go ....The impact of COVID-19 economic stimulus measures on corporate stakeholders. Australia's economic response to COVID-19 saw cash injections to companies and bailouts of some insolvent firms. This project aims to quantify the market value of these government subsidies and how it was shared across corporate stakeholders. The project expects to generate new knowledge for the design of financial stability regimes by developing the world-first dynamic structural model of firm assets that allows for government interventions both prior to and at default. Expected outcomes include a novel public dataset that tracks expected future subsidies and how they are shared by stakeholders. These forecasts should provide significant benefits to taxpayers as they fund the subsidies and gain from them as claimants to Australian firms.Read moreRead less
Share trading by corporate insiders: effects and implications. The project examines trading by corporate insiders in Australian firms. The project's findings will provide evidence to corporate regulators on firms' disclosure practices and the effect of non-disclosure of insider trades on transparency in the market and investor confidence through the firm's cost of capital.
Facilitating the attainment of difficult goals: From theory to intervention. Being persistent in pursuing an important goal is glorified in society. People, however, often need to be strategic in their goal pursuits. A series of lab and field studies will aim to test how helping individuals to realise early in their goal striving whether their goal is attainable or not, can support them in making the right decision (persist with, abandon, or change the goal). The project will make novel contribu ....Facilitating the attainment of difficult goals: From theory to intervention. Being persistent in pursuing an important goal is glorified in society. People, however, often need to be strategic in their goal pursuits. A series of lab and field studies will aim to test how helping individuals to realise early in their goal striving whether their goal is attainable or not, can support them in making the right decision (persist with, abandon, or change the goal). The project will make novel contributions to theories of motivation and goal regulation. It will also have significant public benefit as it will provide the necessary evidence for the development of brief interventions that maximise the efficient use of individuals’ limited resources, facilitating individual and societal productivity and well-being.Read moreRead less
MANAGING AND MODELLING RISK AND COMPLEXITY IN THE INVESTMENT AND HEDGE FUNDS INDUSTRY. The project will develop an evolutionary learning algorithm for modeling non-linear financial asset price movements and conduct simulations to gain a better understanding of price formation in securities markets with a focus on the equity market. We will focus on extreme market conditions to calibrate the benefits and efficiency of risk management techniques. The models will be applied to benchmarking and eval ....MANAGING AND MODELLING RISK AND COMPLEXITY IN THE INVESTMENT AND HEDGE FUNDS INDUSTRY. The project will develop an evolutionary learning algorithm for modeling non-linear financial asset price movements and conduct simulations to gain a better understanding of price formation in securities markets with a focus on the equity market. We will focus on extreme market conditions to calibrate the benefits and efficiency of risk management techniques. The models will be applied to benchmarking and evaluating portfolio decisions of hedge funds; investment risk management and dynamic portfolio selection strategies. The research will result in new theoretical approaches and empirical methods to study price movements and evaluate fund performance.Read moreRead less